Earthquake-based multi-hazard resilience assessment: a case study of Istanbul, Turkey (neighborhood level)
Abstract We developed a model integrating 28 criteria spanning social, economic, community, environmental, and physical dimensions to evaluate earthquake resilience of Istanbul, a city with a population of 16 million and significant seismic risk, at both district and subdistrict/neighborhood levels....
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2025-02-01
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| Series: | npj Natural Hazards |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-025-00065-8 |
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| Summary: | Abstract We developed a model integrating 28 criteria spanning social, economic, community, environmental, and physical dimensions to evaluate earthquake resilience of Istanbul, a city with a population of 16 million and significant seismic risk, at both district and subdistrict/neighborhood levels. The resilience assessment uses the Bayesian Best-Worst Method, a multi-criteria decision-making framework that combines expert knowledge and statistical assessments. The results reveal that Istanbul’s overall Resilience Score (RS) is 0.48, on a 0-1 scale, suggesting a moderate capacity to endure and recover from seismic events. Catalca, Adalar, and Arnavutkoy rank among the most resilient districts, whereas Esenler and Gungoren exhibit lower resilience. On a subdistrict level, Suleymaniye (Fatih) has the highest RS at 0.59, while Yavuz Sultan Selim (Fatih) ranks the lowest with 0.22. These findings provide actionable and practical data-driven insights for policymakers and urban planners, underscoring the need for targeted interventions to improve resilience in high-risk areas in Istanbul. |
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| ISSN: | 2948-2100 |