Timber and carbon sequestration potential of Chinese forests under different forest management scenarios
Developing forestry action plans with the goal of carbon neutrality is a critical task to identify carbon sink potential and balance the pathways of China's forests. Current research that predicts forest biomass carbon stock and sink potential has shortcomings, such as an incomplete assessment...
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KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Advances in Climate Change Research |
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| author | Hui-Ling Tian Jian-Hua Zhu Xiang-Dong Lei Xin-Yun Chen Li-Xiong Zeng Zun-Ji Jian Fu-Hua Li Wen-Fa Xiao |
| author_facet | Hui-Ling Tian Jian-Hua Zhu Xiang-Dong Lei Xin-Yun Chen Li-Xiong Zeng Zun-Ji Jian Fu-Hua Li Wen-Fa Xiao |
| author_sort | Hui-Ling Tian |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Developing forestry action plans with the goal of carbon neutrality is a critical task to identify carbon sink potential and balance the pathways of China's forests. Current research that predicts forest biomass carbon stock and sink potential has shortcomings, such as an incomplete assessment of China's forest carbon sink range, assumptions based on unchanged forest area in the base year and insufficient consideration of natural and human disturbance factors. This study utilised the national forest inventory (NFI) data to construct a model of forest growth and consumption using a machine learning algorithm (i.e. random forest), identified suitable areas for future forest expansion by integrating multi-source data, and set up three future forest management scenarios: business as usual (BAU), enhanced policy scenario (EPS) and maximum potential scenario (MPS). In addition, changes in the area, volume stock and biomass carbon stock in China's forests between 2020 and 2060 were predicted under three forestry activities (i.e. existing forest, afforested/reforested (AR) forest and forest conversion) and three climate scenarios (i.e. SSP126, SSP370 and SSP585) based on the 9th NFI (2014–2018). According to China's relevant planning goals and suitable forest space, the area of AR forests is predicted to be 55.55 × 106 hm2 by 2060, and the forest coverage rate is predicted to increase from 23% in 2018 to 28% by 2060. Biomass carbon sequestration (BCS) between 2020 and 2060 in AR forests is predicted to be 36.00 TgC per year. By 2060, the average BCS is predicted to be approximately 140.00–287.56 TgC per year in China's forests, which is mainly owing to arbor forest management. Under the BAU and EPS scenarios, BCS in China's forests is expected to decline from 2020 to 2060. However, under the MPS, BCS in China's forests is projected to increase and be maintained at 322 TgC per year or above by 2060, with wood production reaching 4.71 × 108 m3 per year. China's forests are predicted to experience an increase in biomass carbon stock in the future and play a role as a carbon sink. By taking measures to achieve the maximum growth potential of all forest types, China's forests will achieve a win‒win situation between carbon sinks and timber production. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-99405292cb324717ad038534fedff1d0 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1674-9278 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. |
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| series | Advances in Climate Change Research |
| spelling | doaj-art-99405292cb324717ad038534fedff1d02025-01-15T04:11:35ZengKeAi Communications Co., Ltd.Advances in Climate Change Research1674-92782024-12-0115611211129Timber and carbon sequestration potential of Chinese forests under different forest management scenariosHui-Ling Tian0Jian-Hua Zhu1Xiang-Dong Lei2Xin-Yun Chen3Li-Xiong Zeng4Zun-Ji Jian5Fu-Hua Li6Wen-Fa Xiao7Ecology and Nature Conservation Institute, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China; Key Laboratory of Forest Ecology and Environment of National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Beijing 100091, China; Institute of Forest Resource Information Techniques, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, ChinaEcology and Nature Conservation Institute, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China; Key Laboratory of Forest Ecology and Environment of National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Beijing 100091, China; Corresponding author. Ecology and Nature Conservation Institute, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China.Institute of Forest Resource Information Techniques, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, ChinaAcademy of Forest and Grassland Inventory and Planning of National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Beijing 100714, ChinaEcology and Nature Conservation Institute, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China; Key Laboratory of Forest Ecology and Environment of National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Beijing 100091, China; Academy of Forest and Grassland Inventory and Planning of National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Beijing 100714, ChinaEcology and Nature Conservation Institute, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China; Key Laboratory of Forest Ecology and Environment of National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Beijing 100091, ChinaNational Nature Reserve Management Bureau of Beichuan Heyuan District, Datong 810100, ChinaAcademy of Forestry and Grassland Carbon Sink, Beijing 100091, China; Corresponding author.Developing forestry action plans with the goal of carbon neutrality is a critical task to identify carbon sink potential and balance the pathways of China's forests. Current research that predicts forest biomass carbon stock and sink potential has shortcomings, such as an incomplete assessment of China's forest carbon sink range, assumptions based on unchanged forest area in the base year and insufficient consideration of natural and human disturbance factors. This study utilised the national forest inventory (NFI) data to construct a model of forest growth and consumption using a machine learning algorithm (i.e. random forest), identified suitable areas for future forest expansion by integrating multi-source data, and set up three future forest management scenarios: business as usual (BAU), enhanced policy scenario (EPS) and maximum potential scenario (MPS). In addition, changes in the area, volume stock and biomass carbon stock in China's forests between 2020 and 2060 were predicted under three forestry activities (i.e. existing forest, afforested/reforested (AR) forest and forest conversion) and three climate scenarios (i.e. SSP126, SSP370 and SSP585) based on the 9th NFI (2014–2018). According to China's relevant planning goals and suitable forest space, the area of AR forests is predicted to be 55.55 × 106 hm2 by 2060, and the forest coverage rate is predicted to increase from 23% in 2018 to 28% by 2060. Biomass carbon sequestration (BCS) between 2020 and 2060 in AR forests is predicted to be 36.00 TgC per year. By 2060, the average BCS is predicted to be approximately 140.00–287.56 TgC per year in China's forests, which is mainly owing to arbor forest management. Under the BAU and EPS scenarios, BCS in China's forests is expected to decline from 2020 to 2060. However, under the MPS, BCS in China's forests is projected to increase and be maintained at 322 TgC per year or above by 2060, with wood production reaching 4.71 × 108 m3 per year. China's forests are predicted to experience an increase in biomass carbon stock in the future and play a role as a carbon sink. By taking measures to achieve the maximum growth potential of all forest types, China's forests will achieve a win‒win situation between carbon sinks and timber production.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674927824001539National forest inventoryRandom forestForestry activityForest managementBiomass carbon sinkTimber production |
| spellingShingle | Hui-Ling Tian Jian-Hua Zhu Xiang-Dong Lei Xin-Yun Chen Li-Xiong Zeng Zun-Ji Jian Fu-Hua Li Wen-Fa Xiao Timber and carbon sequestration potential of Chinese forests under different forest management scenarios Advances in Climate Change Research National forest inventory Random forest Forestry activity Forest management Biomass carbon sink Timber production |
| title | Timber and carbon sequestration potential of Chinese forests under different forest management scenarios |
| title_full | Timber and carbon sequestration potential of Chinese forests under different forest management scenarios |
| title_fullStr | Timber and carbon sequestration potential of Chinese forests under different forest management scenarios |
| title_full_unstemmed | Timber and carbon sequestration potential of Chinese forests under different forest management scenarios |
| title_short | Timber and carbon sequestration potential of Chinese forests under different forest management scenarios |
| title_sort | timber and carbon sequestration potential of chinese forests under different forest management scenarios |
| topic | National forest inventory Random forest Forestry activity Forest management Biomass carbon sink Timber production |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674927824001539 |
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