ANALYZING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TRADE OPENNESS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NORTH MACEDONIA: A SVAR APPROACH
The relationship between trade openness and economic growth is complex. We employ a structural vector auto-regression (SVAR) model using quarterly data for the period from 2005 to 2022 to estimate the impact of trade openness on the economic growth in North Macedonia. The study's findings indic...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Pale University of East Sarajevo
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Zbornik Radova Ekonomskog Fakulteta u Istočnom Sarajevu |
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| Online Access: | https://zrefis.ekofis.ues.rs.ba/images/zrefis2024-29/23-38_Shapkova%20Kocevska_Makrevska%20Disoska_Tonovska.pdf |
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| author | Katerina Shapkova Kocevska Elena Makrevska Disoska Jasna Tonovska |
| author_facet | Katerina Shapkova Kocevska Elena Makrevska Disoska Jasna Tonovska |
| author_sort | Katerina Shapkova Kocevska |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The relationship between trade openness and economic growth is complex. We employ a structural vector auto-regression (SVAR) model using quarterly data for the period from 2005 to 2022 to estimate the impact of trade openness on the economic growth in North Macedonia. The study's findings indicate a negative and significant relationship between trade openness and economic development in the short and long run. The complexity of this relationship highlights an adverse impact on countries specialising in low-quality production or those with low levels of human capital accumulation, such as North Macedonia. The dynamic effects of shocks to trade openness on interest rates, consumer price index, interest rates, labour force, and exchange rate are investigated using impulse response functions. The paper suggests that North Macedonia's trade strategy requires reorientation towards trade diversification, attracting export-oriented FDIs, and fostering regional trade integration to achieve sustainable economic growth and development. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-9913c4eaaafc44369e2db1c0de0d8bec |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1840-3557 1986-6690 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Pale University of East Sarajevo |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Zbornik Radova Ekonomskog Fakulteta u Istočnom Sarajevu |
| spelling | doaj-art-9913c4eaaafc44369e2db1c0de0d8bec2025-08-20T02:30:24ZengPale University of East SarajevoZbornik Radova Ekonomskog Fakulteta u Istočnom Sarajevu1840-35571986-66902024-12-0129233810.7251/ZREFIS2429023SANALYZING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TRADE OPENNESS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NORTH MACEDONIA: A SVAR APPROACHKaterina Shapkova Kocevska 0Elena Makrevska Disoska1Jasna Tonovska2Faculty of Law Iustinianus Primus – Skopje, University “Ss. Cyril and Methodius” in Skopje, North MacedoniaFaculty of Economics-Skopje, University “Ss. Cyril and Methodius” in Skopje, North MacedoniaFaculty of Economics-Skopje, University “Ss. Cyril and Methodius” in Skopje, North MacedoniaThe relationship between trade openness and economic growth is complex. We employ a structural vector auto-regression (SVAR) model using quarterly data for the period from 2005 to 2022 to estimate the impact of trade openness on the economic growth in North Macedonia. The study's findings indicate a negative and significant relationship between trade openness and economic development in the short and long run. The complexity of this relationship highlights an adverse impact on countries specialising in low-quality production or those with low levels of human capital accumulation, such as North Macedonia. The dynamic effects of shocks to trade openness on interest rates, consumer price index, interest rates, labour force, and exchange rate are investigated using impulse response functions. The paper suggests that North Macedonia's trade strategy requires reorientation towards trade diversification, attracting export-oriented FDIs, and fostering regional trade integration to achieve sustainable economic growth and development. https://zrefis.ekofis.ues.rs.ba/images/zrefis2024-29/23-38_Shapkova%20Kocevska_Makrevska%20Disoska_Tonovska.pdftrade opennesseconomic growthsvarforecast error variance decompositionimpulse response function |
| spellingShingle | Katerina Shapkova Kocevska Elena Makrevska Disoska Jasna Tonovska ANALYZING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TRADE OPENNESS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NORTH MACEDONIA: A SVAR APPROACH Zbornik Radova Ekonomskog Fakulteta u Istočnom Sarajevu trade openness economic growth svar forecast error variance decomposition impulse response function |
| title | ANALYZING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TRADE OPENNESS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NORTH MACEDONIA: A SVAR APPROACH |
| title_full | ANALYZING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TRADE OPENNESS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NORTH MACEDONIA: A SVAR APPROACH |
| title_fullStr | ANALYZING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TRADE OPENNESS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NORTH MACEDONIA: A SVAR APPROACH |
| title_full_unstemmed | ANALYZING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TRADE OPENNESS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NORTH MACEDONIA: A SVAR APPROACH |
| title_short | ANALYZING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TRADE OPENNESS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NORTH MACEDONIA: A SVAR APPROACH |
| title_sort | analyzing the relationship between trade openness and economic growth in north macedonia a svar approach |
| topic | trade openness economic growth svar forecast error variance decomposition impulse response function |
| url | https://zrefis.ekofis.ues.rs.ba/images/zrefis2024-29/23-38_Shapkova%20Kocevska_Makrevska%20Disoska_Tonovska.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT katerinashapkovakocevska analyzingtherelationshipbetweentradeopennessandeconomicgrowthinnorthmacedoniaasvarapproach AT elenamakrevskadisoska analyzingtherelationshipbetweentradeopennessandeconomicgrowthinnorthmacedoniaasvarapproach AT jasnatonovska analyzingtherelationshipbetweentradeopennessandeconomicgrowthinnorthmacedoniaasvarapproach |