Empirical research on the diffusion effect of ICT innovation diffusion and prediction in China
Based on the characteristics of information and communication technology (ICT) in China,an empirical study was made on the diffusion effect of ICT innovation using Bass extension model.The results show that the curve fitting estimation effect of genetic algorithm was remarkable.In addition,non-cumul...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | zho |
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Beijing Xintong Media Co., Ltd
2020-01-01
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| Series: | Dianxin kexue |
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| Online Access: | http://www.telecomsci.com/zh/article/doi/10.11959/j.issn.1000-0801.2020015/ |
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| _version_ | 1841530608482779136 |
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| author | Wenyu HU Wenju WANG |
| author_facet | Wenyu HU Wenju WANG |
| author_sort | Wenyu HU |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Based on the characteristics of information and communication technology (ICT) in China,an empirical study was made on the diffusion effect of ICT innovation using Bass extension model.The results show that the curve fitting estimation effect of genetic algorithm was remarkable.In addition,non-cumulative adopter model was used to empirically analyze the diffusion effect of ICT innovation from the aspects of technology evolution,business,region and provinces.It was concluded that innovation diffusion was significantly driven by innovation effect along with the evolution of ICT,especially 3G/4G,broadband Internet,digital TV and their convergent business.Finally,the non-cumulative Bass model using genetic algorithm were used to predict the user size of fixed-line,mobile,broad-band,radio and television in the next five years. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-98fd1485eec94038b9ead9ea7e0cdd01 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1000-0801 |
| language | zho |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | Beijing Xintong Media Co., Ltd |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Dianxin kexue |
| spelling | doaj-art-98fd1485eec94038b9ead9ea7e0cdd012025-01-15T03:01:18ZzhoBeijing Xintong Media Co., LtdDianxin kexue1000-08012020-01-0136667659585146Empirical research on the diffusion effect of ICT innovation diffusion and prediction in ChinaWenyu HUWenju WANGBased on the characteristics of information and communication technology (ICT) in China,an empirical study was made on the diffusion effect of ICT innovation using Bass extension model.The results show that the curve fitting estimation effect of genetic algorithm was remarkable.In addition,non-cumulative adopter model was used to empirically analyze the diffusion effect of ICT innovation from the aspects of technology evolution,business,region and provinces.It was concluded that innovation diffusion was significantly driven by innovation effect along with the evolution of ICT,especially 3G/4G,broadband Internet,digital TV and their convergent business.Finally,the non-cumulative Bass model using genetic algorithm were used to predict the user size of fixed-line,mobile,broad-band,radio and television in the next five years.http://www.telecomsci.com/zh/article/doi/10.11959/j.issn.1000-0801.2020015/ICTinnovation diffusionnon-cumulative adopter Bass modelgenetic algorithm,prediction |
| spellingShingle | Wenyu HU Wenju WANG Empirical research on the diffusion effect of ICT innovation diffusion and prediction in China Dianxin kexue ICT innovation diffusion non-cumulative adopter Bass model genetic algorithm,prediction |
| title | Empirical research on the diffusion effect of ICT innovation diffusion and prediction in China |
| title_full | Empirical research on the diffusion effect of ICT innovation diffusion and prediction in China |
| title_fullStr | Empirical research on the diffusion effect of ICT innovation diffusion and prediction in China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Empirical research on the diffusion effect of ICT innovation diffusion and prediction in China |
| title_short | Empirical research on the diffusion effect of ICT innovation diffusion and prediction in China |
| title_sort | empirical research on the diffusion effect of ict innovation diffusion and prediction in china |
| topic | ICT innovation diffusion non-cumulative adopter Bass model genetic algorithm,prediction |
| url | http://www.telecomsci.com/zh/article/doi/10.11959/j.issn.1000-0801.2020015/ |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT wenyuhu empiricalresearchonthediffusioneffectofictinnovationdiffusionandpredictioninchina AT wenjuwang empiricalresearchonthediffusioneffectofictinnovationdiffusionandpredictioninchina |