Construction of a risk prediction model for falls in elderly lung cancer patients with sarcopenia
BackgroundTo explore the risk factors associated with falls in elderly lung cancer patients with sarcopenia, construct a predictive model, and validate its performance.MethodsThis cross-sectional study involved 316 lung cancer patients with sarcopenia who were hospitalized in the oncology, thoracic...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2025-06-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Oncology |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fonc.2025.1533368/full |
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| author | Qing Wang Qing Wang Xiao Han Jun Zhang Jun Zhang Mengying Hu Mengying Hu Jiaojiao Xu Qiongqiong Ai Hequn Wei Jiao Yu Haiping Ma |
| author_facet | Qing Wang Qing Wang Xiao Han Jun Zhang Jun Zhang Mengying Hu Mengying Hu Jiaojiao Xu Qiongqiong Ai Hequn Wei Jiao Yu Haiping Ma |
| author_sort | Qing Wang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | BackgroundTo explore the risk factors associated with falls in elderly lung cancer patients with sarcopenia, construct a predictive model, and validate its performance.MethodsThis cross-sectional study involved 316 lung cancer patients with sarcopenia who were hospitalized in the oncology, thoracic surgery, and respiratory medicine departments of a tertiary hospital in Jiangxi Province between January 2023 and December 2023. Data were collected through questionnaires and physical measurements. A logistic regression predictive model was developed on the basis of independent risk factors.ResultsThe incidence of falls among elderly lung cancer patients with sarcopenia was 19.94%. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified multiple metastases, nocturia (≥3 times per night), sleep disorders, frailty, and malnutrition as independent risk factors for falls. The Hosmer - Lemeshow test indicated good model fit (X2 = 5.353, P=0.719), with an overall predictive accuracy of 83.7%. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.832, and the Youden index reached a maximum of 0.577, corresponding to a sensitivity of 74.7%, specificity of 83.0%, and an optimal cut-off value of 0.221.ConclusionThe risk prediction model for falls in elderly lung cancer patients with sarcopenia, which is based on independent predictors, demonstrated good predictive performance. This model facilitates the timely identification of high-risk patients, providing scientific evidence to support the development of precise clinical management strategies. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-98cc7720e4d5400c8e6762e6179b4ee3 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2234-943X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Oncology |
| spelling | doaj-art-98cc7720e4d5400c8e6762e6179b4ee32025-08-20T03:21:39ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Oncology2234-943X2025-06-011510.3389/fonc.2025.15333681533368Construction of a risk prediction model for falls in elderly lung cancer patients with sarcopeniaQing Wang0Qing Wang1Xiao Han2Jun Zhang3Jun Zhang4Mengying Hu5Mengying Hu6Jiaojiao Xu7Qiongqiong Ai8Hequn Wei9Jiao Yu10Haiping Ma11The Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi, ChinaSchool of Nursing, Jiangxi Medical College, Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi, ChinaThe Affiliated Stomatological Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi, ChinaThe Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi, ChinaSchool of Nursing, Jiangxi Medical College, Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi, ChinaThe Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi, ChinaSchool of Nursing, Jiangxi Medical College, Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi, ChinaThe Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi, ChinaThe Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi, ChinaThe Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi, ChinaThe Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi, ChinaThe Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi, ChinaBackgroundTo explore the risk factors associated with falls in elderly lung cancer patients with sarcopenia, construct a predictive model, and validate its performance.MethodsThis cross-sectional study involved 316 lung cancer patients with sarcopenia who were hospitalized in the oncology, thoracic surgery, and respiratory medicine departments of a tertiary hospital in Jiangxi Province between January 2023 and December 2023. Data were collected through questionnaires and physical measurements. A logistic regression predictive model was developed on the basis of independent risk factors.ResultsThe incidence of falls among elderly lung cancer patients with sarcopenia was 19.94%. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified multiple metastases, nocturia (≥3 times per night), sleep disorders, frailty, and malnutrition as independent risk factors for falls. The Hosmer - Lemeshow test indicated good model fit (X2 = 5.353, P=0.719), with an overall predictive accuracy of 83.7%. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.832, and the Youden index reached a maximum of 0.577, corresponding to a sensitivity of 74.7%, specificity of 83.0%, and an optimal cut-off value of 0.221.ConclusionThe risk prediction model for falls in elderly lung cancer patients with sarcopenia, which is based on independent predictors, demonstrated good predictive performance. This model facilitates the timely identification of high-risk patients, providing scientific evidence to support the development of precise clinical management strategies.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fonc.2025.1533368/fullelderlylung cancersarcopeniafallspredictive model |
| spellingShingle | Qing Wang Qing Wang Xiao Han Jun Zhang Jun Zhang Mengying Hu Mengying Hu Jiaojiao Xu Qiongqiong Ai Hequn Wei Jiao Yu Haiping Ma Construction of a risk prediction model for falls in elderly lung cancer patients with sarcopenia Frontiers in Oncology elderly lung cancer sarcopenia falls predictive model |
| title | Construction of a risk prediction model for falls in elderly lung cancer patients with sarcopenia |
| title_full | Construction of a risk prediction model for falls in elderly lung cancer patients with sarcopenia |
| title_fullStr | Construction of a risk prediction model for falls in elderly lung cancer patients with sarcopenia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Construction of a risk prediction model for falls in elderly lung cancer patients with sarcopenia |
| title_short | Construction of a risk prediction model for falls in elderly lung cancer patients with sarcopenia |
| title_sort | construction of a risk prediction model for falls in elderly lung cancer patients with sarcopenia |
| topic | elderly lung cancer sarcopenia falls predictive model |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fonc.2025.1533368/full |
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