The Involvement of Human Factors Brings New Findings for Predicting Global Suitability Habitat for Hyphantria cunea (Lepidoptera: Arctiidae)
ABSTRACT Invasive pests have spread globally at an unprecedented scale, severely threatening biodiversity and resulting in significant economic losses, emerging as a global problem. This study utilizes the Maxent model, incorporating human and natural factors to predict the current and future potent...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2025-05-01
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| Series: | Ecology and Evolution |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.71421 |
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| Summary: | ABSTRACT Invasive pests have spread globally at an unprecedented scale, severely threatening biodiversity and resulting in significant economic losses, emerging as a global problem. This study utilizes the Maxent model, incorporating human and natural factors to predict the current and future potential global distribution of Hyphantria cunea, for comparison with climate change. Results indicate that under the influence of climate change, human factors have significantly altered the potential global distribution of H. cunea. In contrast to the potential distribution driven by climate change, this paper suggests that the suitable habitat area for H. cunea in Oceania, Southern Hemisphere, is expected to increase. Over the long term, under the SSP126 and 585 scenarios, there is a forecasted reduction of 25.2% and 33.2% in the suitable living area for H. cunea, whereas the SSP245 and 370 scenarios anticipate increases of 13.9% and 5.7%, respectively. Moreover, this research identifies areas of high suitability across continents and forecasts changes in the distribution patterns of H. cunea in the future. It offers crucial insights for developing more effective global quarantine strategies and pest management policies. |
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| ISSN: | 2045-7758 |