Unveiling Wildfire Dynamics: A Bayesian County-Specific Analysis in California

Recently, the United States has experienced, on average, costs of USD 20 billion due to natural and climate disasters, such as hurricanes and wildfires. In this study, we focus on wildfires, which have occurred more frequently in the past few years. This paper examines how various factors, such as t...

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Main Authors: Shreejit Poudyal, Alex Lindquist, Nate Smullen, Victoria York, Ali Lotfi, James Greene, Mohammad Meysami
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2024-08-01
Series:J
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2571-8800/7/3/18
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author Shreejit Poudyal
Alex Lindquist
Nate Smullen
Victoria York
Ali Lotfi
James Greene
Mohammad Meysami
author_facet Shreejit Poudyal
Alex Lindquist
Nate Smullen
Victoria York
Ali Lotfi
James Greene
Mohammad Meysami
author_sort Shreejit Poudyal
collection DOAJ
description Recently, the United States has experienced, on average, costs of USD 20 billion due to natural and climate disasters, such as hurricanes and wildfires. In this study, we focus on wildfires, which have occurred more frequently in the past few years. This paper examines how various factors, such as the PM10 levels, elevation, precipitation, SOX, population, and temperature, can influence the intensity of wildfires differently across counties in California. More specifically, we use Bayesian analysis to classify all counties of California into two groups: those with more wildfires and those with fewer wildfires. The Bayesian model incorporates prior knowledge and uncertainty for a more robust understanding of how these environmental factors impact wildfires differently among county groups. The findings show a similar effect of the SOX, population, and temperature, while the PM10, elevation, and precipitation have different implications for wildfires across various groups.
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spelling doaj-art-982acdd42403482da0952fe80dcbd3632025-08-20T01:55:34ZengMDPI AGJ2571-88002024-08-017331933310.3390/j7030018Unveiling Wildfire Dynamics: A Bayesian County-Specific Analysis in CaliforniaShreejit Poudyal0Alex Lindquist1Nate Smullen2Victoria York3Ali Lotfi4James Greene5Mohammad Meysami6Department of Mathematics, Clarkson University, Potsdam, NY 13699, USADepartment of Mathematics, Clarkson University, Potsdam, NY 13699, USADepartment of Mathematics, Clarkson University, Potsdam, NY 13699, USADepartment of Mathematics, Clarkson University, Potsdam, NY 13699, USADepartment of Computer Science, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK S7N 5A2, CanadaDepartment of Mathematics, Clarkson University, Potsdam, NY 13699, USADepartment of Mathematics, Clarkson University, Potsdam, NY 13699, USARecently, the United States has experienced, on average, costs of USD 20 billion due to natural and climate disasters, such as hurricanes and wildfires. In this study, we focus on wildfires, which have occurred more frequently in the past few years. This paper examines how various factors, such as the PM10 levels, elevation, precipitation, SOX, population, and temperature, can influence the intensity of wildfires differently across counties in California. More specifically, we use Bayesian analysis to classify all counties of California into two groups: those with more wildfires and those with fewer wildfires. The Bayesian model incorporates prior knowledge and uncertainty for a more robust understanding of how these environmental factors impact wildfires differently among county groups. The findings show a similar effect of the SOX, population, and temperature, while the PM10, elevation, and precipitation have different implications for wildfires across various groups.https://www.mdpi.com/2571-8800/7/3/18California wildfiresenvironmental factorswildfire dynamicsBayesian methodologiescounty-level analysis
spellingShingle Shreejit Poudyal
Alex Lindquist
Nate Smullen
Victoria York
Ali Lotfi
James Greene
Mohammad Meysami
Unveiling Wildfire Dynamics: A Bayesian County-Specific Analysis in California
J
California wildfires
environmental factors
wildfire dynamics
Bayesian methodologies
county-level analysis
title Unveiling Wildfire Dynamics: A Bayesian County-Specific Analysis in California
title_full Unveiling Wildfire Dynamics: A Bayesian County-Specific Analysis in California
title_fullStr Unveiling Wildfire Dynamics: A Bayesian County-Specific Analysis in California
title_full_unstemmed Unveiling Wildfire Dynamics: A Bayesian County-Specific Analysis in California
title_short Unveiling Wildfire Dynamics: A Bayesian County-Specific Analysis in California
title_sort unveiling wildfire dynamics a bayesian county specific analysis in california
topic California wildfires
environmental factors
wildfire dynamics
Bayesian methodologies
county-level analysis
url https://www.mdpi.com/2571-8800/7/3/18
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