Estimated impact of the 2020 economic downturn on under-5 mortality for 129 countries.
In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), economic downturns can lead to increased child mortality by affecting dietary, environmental, and care-seeking factors. This study estimates the potential loss of life in children under five years old attributable to economic downturns in 2020. We used a...
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Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2022-01-01
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| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0263245&type=printable |
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| author | Marcelo Cardona Joseph Millward Alison Gemmill Katelyn Jison Yoo David M Bishai |
| author_facet | Marcelo Cardona Joseph Millward Alison Gemmill Katelyn Jison Yoo David M Bishai |
| author_sort | Marcelo Cardona |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), economic downturns can lead to increased child mortality by affecting dietary, environmental, and care-seeking factors. This study estimates the potential loss of life in children under five years old attributable to economic downturns in 2020. We used a multi-level, mixed effects model to estimate the relationship between gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and under-5 mortality rates (U5MRs) specific to each of 129 LMICs. Public data were retrieved from the World Bank World Development Indicators database and the United Nations World Populations Prospects estimates for the years 1990-2020. Country-specific regression coefficients on the relationship between child mortality and GDP were used to estimate the impact on U5MR of reductions in GDP per capita of 5%, 10%, and 15%. A 5% reduction in GDP per capita in 2020 was estimated to cause an additional 282,996 deaths in children under 5 in 2020. At 10% and 15%, recessions led to higher losses of under-5 lives, increasing to 585,802 and 911,026 additional deaths, respectively. Nearly half of all the potential under-5 lives lost in LMICs were estimated to occur in Sub-Saharan Africa. Because most of these deaths will likely be due to nutrition and environmental factors amenable to intervention, countries should ensure continued investments in food supplementation, growth monitoring, and comprehensive primary health care to mitigate potential burdens. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-97cdd2f529c447aca78c67af4beff093 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
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| spelling | doaj-art-97cdd2f529c447aca78c67af4beff0932025-08-20T02:46:25ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032022-01-01172e026324510.1371/journal.pone.0263245Estimated impact of the 2020 economic downturn on under-5 mortality for 129 countries.Marcelo CardonaJoseph MillwardAlison GemmillKatelyn Jison YooDavid M BishaiIn low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), economic downturns can lead to increased child mortality by affecting dietary, environmental, and care-seeking factors. This study estimates the potential loss of life in children under five years old attributable to economic downturns in 2020. We used a multi-level, mixed effects model to estimate the relationship between gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and under-5 mortality rates (U5MRs) specific to each of 129 LMICs. Public data were retrieved from the World Bank World Development Indicators database and the United Nations World Populations Prospects estimates for the years 1990-2020. Country-specific regression coefficients on the relationship between child mortality and GDP were used to estimate the impact on U5MR of reductions in GDP per capita of 5%, 10%, and 15%. A 5% reduction in GDP per capita in 2020 was estimated to cause an additional 282,996 deaths in children under 5 in 2020. At 10% and 15%, recessions led to higher losses of under-5 lives, increasing to 585,802 and 911,026 additional deaths, respectively. Nearly half of all the potential under-5 lives lost in LMICs were estimated to occur in Sub-Saharan Africa. Because most of these deaths will likely be due to nutrition and environmental factors amenable to intervention, countries should ensure continued investments in food supplementation, growth monitoring, and comprehensive primary health care to mitigate potential burdens.https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0263245&type=printable |
| spellingShingle | Marcelo Cardona Joseph Millward Alison Gemmill Katelyn Jison Yoo David M Bishai Estimated impact of the 2020 economic downturn on under-5 mortality for 129 countries. PLoS ONE |
| title | Estimated impact of the 2020 economic downturn on under-5 mortality for 129 countries. |
| title_full | Estimated impact of the 2020 economic downturn on under-5 mortality for 129 countries. |
| title_fullStr | Estimated impact of the 2020 economic downturn on under-5 mortality for 129 countries. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimated impact of the 2020 economic downturn on under-5 mortality for 129 countries. |
| title_short | Estimated impact of the 2020 economic downturn on under-5 mortality for 129 countries. |
| title_sort | estimated impact of the 2020 economic downturn on under 5 mortality for 129 countries |
| url | https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0263245&type=printable |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT marcelocardona estimatedimpactofthe2020economicdownturnonunder5mortalityfor129countries AT josephmillward estimatedimpactofthe2020economicdownturnonunder5mortalityfor129countries AT alisongemmill estimatedimpactofthe2020economicdownturnonunder5mortalityfor129countries AT katelynjisonyoo estimatedimpactofthe2020economicdownturnonunder5mortalityfor129countries AT davidmbishai estimatedimpactofthe2020economicdownturnonunder5mortalityfor129countries |