A Methodology to Assess the Effectiveness of SUDSs Under Climate Change Scenarios at Urban Scale: Application to Bari (Italy)
The effects of climate change and urbanisation, such as more intense rainfall and changing land use patterns, are putting increasing pressure on urban drainage systems. This study proposes a comprehensive methodology for evaluating the effectiveness of sustainable urban drainage systems (SUDSs) in m...
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2025-07-01
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| author | Anna Pia Monachese Riccardo Samuele Vorrasio María Teresa Gómez-Villarino Sergio Zubelzu |
| author_facet | Anna Pia Monachese Riccardo Samuele Vorrasio María Teresa Gómez-Villarino Sergio Zubelzu |
| author_sort | Anna Pia Monachese |
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| description | The effects of climate change and urbanisation, such as more intense rainfall and changing land use patterns, are putting increasing pressure on urban drainage systems. This study proposes a comprehensive methodology for evaluating the effectiveness of sustainable urban drainage systems (SUDSs) in mitigating flooding and managing stormwater in both current and future scenarios. The approach integrates geospatial data, including digital elevation models (DEMs) and land use information, to delineate catchments and characterise hydrological parameters. Historical rainfall records and hydrological modelling were employed to define two baseline storm events: an extreme storm involving 422 mm of rainfall over 2 h, and an average storm involving 2.84 mm of rainfall over 1 h and 18 min. Future scenarios were developed by updating these baseline events using annual rates of change in maximum and average precipitation derived from climate projections between 2025 and 2100. The analysis incorporates seven CMIP6 climate scenarios: SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-2.5, SSP4-6.0, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. A stochastic simulation of 1000 storms per year was carried out using a custom-built conceptual hydrological model based on CN and developed in Python, which reflects interannual variability. The results show that extreme storm volumes could increase by up to seven times and average storm volumes by up to two and a half times. Additionally, discharge peaks could exceed baseline values by up to 20% in some years, suggesting an increased occurrence of extreme runoff events. The methodology assesses SUDS performance by comparing runoff and hydrological responses between baseline and future estimates. This framework enables vulnerabilities and adaptation needs to be identified, ensuring the long-term effectiveness of SUDSs in managing urban flood risk. Addressing uncertainties in climate and land use projections emphasises the importance of integrating SUDS assessments into wider urban resilience strategies. |
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| issn | 2076-3417 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
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| series | Applied Sciences |
| spelling | doaj-art-97bb093db1f441e39148ae3df2cd34da2025-08-20T02:35:53ZengMDPI AGApplied Sciences2076-34172025-07-011513740010.3390/app15137400A Methodology to Assess the Effectiveness of SUDSs Under Climate Change Scenarios at Urban Scale: Application to Bari (Italy)Anna Pia Monachese0Riccardo Samuele Vorrasio1María Teresa Gómez-Villarino2Sergio Zubelzu3School of Agricultural, Food and Biosystems Engineering, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, 28040 Madrid, SpainDepartment of Civil Engineering, Polytechnic University of Bari, Edoardo Orabona, 4, 70126 Bari, BA, ItalySchool of Agricultural, Food and Biosystems Engineering, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, 28040 Madrid, SpainSchool of Agricultural, Food and Biosystems Engineering, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, 28040 Madrid, SpainThe effects of climate change and urbanisation, such as more intense rainfall and changing land use patterns, are putting increasing pressure on urban drainage systems. This study proposes a comprehensive methodology for evaluating the effectiveness of sustainable urban drainage systems (SUDSs) in mitigating flooding and managing stormwater in both current and future scenarios. The approach integrates geospatial data, including digital elevation models (DEMs) and land use information, to delineate catchments and characterise hydrological parameters. Historical rainfall records and hydrological modelling were employed to define two baseline storm events: an extreme storm involving 422 mm of rainfall over 2 h, and an average storm involving 2.84 mm of rainfall over 1 h and 18 min. Future scenarios were developed by updating these baseline events using annual rates of change in maximum and average precipitation derived from climate projections between 2025 and 2100. The analysis incorporates seven CMIP6 climate scenarios: SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-2.5, SSP4-6.0, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. A stochastic simulation of 1000 storms per year was carried out using a custom-built conceptual hydrological model based on CN and developed in Python, which reflects interannual variability. The results show that extreme storm volumes could increase by up to seven times and average storm volumes by up to two and a half times. Additionally, discharge peaks could exceed baseline values by up to 20% in some years, suggesting an increased occurrence of extreme runoff events. The methodology assesses SUDS performance by comparing runoff and hydrological responses between baseline and future estimates. This framework enables vulnerabilities and adaptation needs to be identified, ensuring the long-term effectiveness of SUDSs in managing urban flood risk. Addressing uncertainties in climate and land use projections emphasises the importance of integrating SUDS assessments into wider urban resilience strategies.https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/15/13/7400sustainable urban drainage systems (SUDSs)climate change adaptationurban hydrologyflood risk managementhydrological modelling |
| spellingShingle | Anna Pia Monachese Riccardo Samuele Vorrasio María Teresa Gómez-Villarino Sergio Zubelzu A Methodology to Assess the Effectiveness of SUDSs Under Climate Change Scenarios at Urban Scale: Application to Bari (Italy) Applied Sciences sustainable urban drainage systems (SUDSs) climate change adaptation urban hydrology flood risk management hydrological modelling |
| title | A Methodology to Assess the Effectiveness of SUDSs Under Climate Change Scenarios at Urban Scale: Application to Bari (Italy) |
| title_full | A Methodology to Assess the Effectiveness of SUDSs Under Climate Change Scenarios at Urban Scale: Application to Bari (Italy) |
| title_fullStr | A Methodology to Assess the Effectiveness of SUDSs Under Climate Change Scenarios at Urban Scale: Application to Bari (Italy) |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Methodology to Assess the Effectiveness of SUDSs Under Climate Change Scenarios at Urban Scale: Application to Bari (Italy) |
| title_short | A Methodology to Assess the Effectiveness of SUDSs Under Climate Change Scenarios at Urban Scale: Application to Bari (Italy) |
| title_sort | methodology to assess the effectiveness of sudss under climate change scenarios at urban scale application to bari italy |
| topic | sustainable urban drainage systems (SUDSs) climate change adaptation urban hydrology flood risk management hydrological modelling |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/15/13/7400 |
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