Future CH4 as modelled by a fully coupled Earth system model: prescribed GHG concentrations vs. interactive CH4 sources and sinks
We have used the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Earth system model GISS-E2.1 to study the future budgets and trends of global and regional CH _4 under different emission scenarios, using both the prescribed GHG concentrations as well as the interactive CH _4 sources and sinks setup...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research: Climate |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/adb3c0 |
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| author | Ulas Im Kostas Tsigaridis Susanne Bauer Drew Shindell Dirk Olivié Simon Wilson Lise Lotte Sørensen Peter Langen Sabine Eckhardt |
| author_facet | Ulas Im Kostas Tsigaridis Susanne Bauer Drew Shindell Dirk Olivié Simon Wilson Lise Lotte Sørensen Peter Langen Sabine Eckhardt |
| author_sort | Ulas Im |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | We have used the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Earth system model GISS-E2.1 to study the future budgets and trends of global and regional CH _4 under different emission scenarios, using both the prescribed GHG concentrations as well as the interactive CH _4 sources and sinks setup of the model, to quantify the model performance and its sensitivity to CH _4 sources and sinks. We have used the Current Legislation (CLE) and the maximum feasible reduction (MFR) emission scenarios from the ECLIPSE V6b emission database to simulate the future evolution of CH _4 sources, sinks, and levels from 2015 to 2050. Results show that the prescribed GHG version underestimates the observed surface CH _4 concentrations during the period between 1995 and 2023 by 1%, with the largest underestimations over the continental emission regions, while the interactive simulation underestimates the observations by 2%, with the biases largest over oceans and smaller over the continents. For the future, the MFR scenario simulates lower global surface CH _4 concentrations and burdens compared to the CLE scenario, however in both cases, global surface CH _4 and burden continue to increase through 2050 compared to present day. In addition, the interactive simulation calculates slightly larger O _3 and OH mixing ratios, in particular over the northern hemisphere, leading to slightly decreased CH _4 lifetime in the present day. The CH _4 forcing is projected to increase in both scenarios, in particular in the CLE scenario, from 0.53 W m ^−2 in the present day to 0.73 W m ^−2 in 2050. In addition, the interactive simulations estimate slightly higher tropospheric O _3 forcing compared to prescribed simulations, due to slightly higher O _3 mixing ratios simulated by the interactive models. While in the CLE, tropospheric O _3 forcing continues to increase, the MFR scenario leads to a decrease in tropospheric O _3 forcing, leading to a climate benefit. Our results highlight that in the interactive models, the response of concentrations are not necessarily linear with the changes in emissions as the chemistry is non-linear, and dependent on the oxidative capacity of the atmosphere. Therefore, it is important to have the CH _4 sources and chemical sinks to be represented comprehensively in climate models. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-96c9f0f179274dc1bbd7acb79b715973 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2752-5295 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research: Climate |
| spelling | doaj-art-96c9f0f179274dc1bbd7acb79b7159732025-08-20T02:15:51ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research: Climate2752-52952025-01-014101500810.1088/2752-5295/adb3c0Future CH4 as modelled by a fully coupled Earth system model: prescribed GHG concentrations vs. interactive CH4 sources and sinksUlas Im0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5177-5306Kostas Tsigaridis1Susanne Bauer2Drew Shindell3Dirk Olivié4Simon Wilson5Lise Lotte Sørensen6https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9823-589XPeter Langen7https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2185-012XSabine Eckhardt8Department of Environmental Science/ Interdisciplinary Centre for Climate Change (iClimate), Aarhus University , Roskilde, DenmarkCenter for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University , New York, NY, United States of America; NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies , New York, NY, United States of AmericaNASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies , New York, NY, United States of AmericaNicholas School of the Environment, Duke University , Durham, NC, United States of AmericaThe Norwegian Meteorological Institute , Blindern, Oslo, NorwayArctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) , Tromsø, NorwayDepartment of Environmental Science/ Interdisciplinary Centre for Climate Change (iClimate), Aarhus University , Roskilde, DenmarkDepartment of Environmental Science/ Interdisciplinary Centre for Climate Change (iClimate), Aarhus University , Roskilde, DenmarkNorwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU) , Kjeller, NorwayWe have used the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Earth system model GISS-E2.1 to study the future budgets and trends of global and regional CH _4 under different emission scenarios, using both the prescribed GHG concentrations as well as the interactive CH _4 sources and sinks setup of the model, to quantify the model performance and its sensitivity to CH _4 sources and sinks. We have used the Current Legislation (CLE) and the maximum feasible reduction (MFR) emission scenarios from the ECLIPSE V6b emission database to simulate the future evolution of CH _4 sources, sinks, and levels from 2015 to 2050. Results show that the prescribed GHG version underestimates the observed surface CH _4 concentrations during the period between 1995 and 2023 by 1%, with the largest underestimations over the continental emission regions, while the interactive simulation underestimates the observations by 2%, with the biases largest over oceans and smaller over the continents. For the future, the MFR scenario simulates lower global surface CH _4 concentrations and burdens compared to the CLE scenario, however in both cases, global surface CH _4 and burden continue to increase through 2050 compared to present day. In addition, the interactive simulation calculates slightly larger O _3 and OH mixing ratios, in particular over the northern hemisphere, leading to slightly decreased CH _4 lifetime in the present day. The CH _4 forcing is projected to increase in both scenarios, in particular in the CLE scenario, from 0.53 W m ^−2 in the present day to 0.73 W m ^−2 in 2050. In addition, the interactive simulations estimate slightly higher tropospheric O _3 forcing compared to prescribed simulations, due to slightly higher O _3 mixing ratios simulated by the interactive models. While in the CLE, tropospheric O _3 forcing continues to increase, the MFR scenario leads to a decrease in tropospheric O _3 forcing, leading to a climate benefit. Our results highlight that in the interactive models, the response of concentrations are not necessarily linear with the changes in emissions as the chemistry is non-linear, and dependent on the oxidative capacity of the atmosphere. Therefore, it is important to have the CH _4 sources and chemical sinks to be represented comprehensively in climate models.https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/adb3c0methanewetland emissionsEarth system modellingfuture climate projectionsanthropogenic methane emissions |
| spellingShingle | Ulas Im Kostas Tsigaridis Susanne Bauer Drew Shindell Dirk Olivié Simon Wilson Lise Lotte Sørensen Peter Langen Sabine Eckhardt Future CH4 as modelled by a fully coupled Earth system model: prescribed GHG concentrations vs. interactive CH4 sources and sinks Environmental Research: Climate methane wetland emissions Earth system modelling future climate projections anthropogenic methane emissions |
| title | Future CH4 as modelled by a fully coupled Earth system model: prescribed GHG concentrations vs. interactive CH4 sources and sinks |
| title_full | Future CH4 as modelled by a fully coupled Earth system model: prescribed GHG concentrations vs. interactive CH4 sources and sinks |
| title_fullStr | Future CH4 as modelled by a fully coupled Earth system model: prescribed GHG concentrations vs. interactive CH4 sources and sinks |
| title_full_unstemmed | Future CH4 as modelled by a fully coupled Earth system model: prescribed GHG concentrations vs. interactive CH4 sources and sinks |
| title_short | Future CH4 as modelled by a fully coupled Earth system model: prescribed GHG concentrations vs. interactive CH4 sources and sinks |
| title_sort | future ch4 as modelled by a fully coupled earth system model prescribed ghg concentrations vs interactive ch4 sources and sinks |
| topic | methane wetland emissions Earth system modelling future climate projections anthropogenic methane emissions |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/adb3c0 |
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