Impacts of drought on respiratory mortality in the upper midwest United States: a population subgroup assessment
Drought is a complex climate phenomenon that varies regionally and temporally across the globe. Its frequency and intensity are expected to increase due to climate change, posing significant threats to human health. Despite these risks, there remains a notable gap in research on the health impacts o...
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| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research: Health |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5309/adafd6 |
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| author | Yeongjin Gwon Yuanyuan Ji Jesse D Berman Azar M Abadi Ronald D Leeper Jared Rennie Jesse E Bell |
| author_facet | Yeongjin Gwon Yuanyuan Ji Jesse D Berman Azar M Abadi Ronald D Leeper Jared Rennie Jesse E Bell |
| author_sort | Yeongjin Gwon |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Drought is a complex climate phenomenon that varies regionally and temporally across the globe. Its frequency and intensity are expected to increase due to climate change, posing significant threats to human health. Despite these risks, there remains a notable gap in research on the health impacts of drought, particularly at the regional level within the United States. This study aims at assessing the risk of severe drought exposure to respiratory mortality in the Upper Midwest of the United States among the general population and at-risk subgroups from 2000 to 2018. Respiratory mortality was obtained for each county and month during study period based on the 10th International Classification of Disease codes. We used the Evaporative Demand Drought Index categorized into three levels and analyzed it at two timescales: 6 months and 12 months. A Bayesian two-stage time-series modeling approach was applied to estimate the county-level and overall risk along with the 95% Credible Intervals (Cr). Stratification analyses were conducted by age group, gender, race, urbanicity, and state within the region. Statistically significant associations were identified between respiratory mortality and the severe droughts. The estimated risks were 1.151 (95% Cr: 1.126–1.178) and 1.092 (95% Cr: 1.063–1.120) for the 6 and 12 month severe droughts. Our study suggests that the risks differs by subgroups: elevated risks in elderly (higher 14.4% and 9.8% for 6 and 12 month), White (15.1% and 9.0% higher for 6 and 12 month), males (12.7% and 5.1% higher for 6 and 12 month), females (15.8% and 11.1% higher for 6 and 12 month), urban 15.8% and 8.8% higher for 6 and 12 month), and rural (13.6% and 9.9% higher for 6 and 12 month) communities. Iowa showed the greatest increase (23.1%) in the 6 month severe drought, while Minnesota had the highest 20.3% in the 12 month severe drought. Our findings suggested that the elderly, both males and females, both rural and urban areas were the most affected subgroups. These findings demonstrate the need for policymakers and communities to adopt more effective drought mitigation strategies in this region. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-965abb6546cb478e8ff66818eee82966 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2752-5309 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
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| series | Environmental Research: Health |
| spelling | doaj-art-965abb6546cb478e8ff66818eee829662025-02-10T10:55:25ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research: Health2752-53092025-01-013202500210.1088/2752-5309/adafd6Impacts of drought on respiratory mortality in the upper midwest United States: a population subgroup assessmentYeongjin Gwon0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6974-337XYuanyuan Ji1Jesse D Berman2Azar M Abadi3Ronald D Leeper4Jared Rennie5Jesse E Bell6Department of Biostatistics, College of Public Health, University of Nebraska Medical Center , Omaha, NE, United States of America; Daugherty Water for Food Global Institute, University of Nebraska , Lincoln, NE, United States of AmericaDepartment of Biostatistics, College of Public Health, University of Nebraska Medical Center , Omaha, NE, United States of AmericaDivision of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota , Minneapolis, MN, United States of AmericaEnvironmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of Alabama at Birmingham , Birmingham, AL, United States of AmericaNorth Carolina Institute for Climate Studies, North Carolina State University , Raleigh, NC, United States of AmericaNational Centers for Environmental Information, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration , Asheville, NC, United States of AmericaDepartment of Environmental Agriculture Occupational and Health, College of Public Health, University of Nebraska Medical Center , Omaha, NE, United States of America; Daugherty Water for Food Global Institute, University of Nebraska , Lincoln, NE, United States of America; School of Natural Resources, University of Nebraska , Lincoln, NE, United States of AmericaDrought is a complex climate phenomenon that varies regionally and temporally across the globe. Its frequency and intensity are expected to increase due to climate change, posing significant threats to human health. Despite these risks, there remains a notable gap in research on the health impacts of drought, particularly at the regional level within the United States. This study aims at assessing the risk of severe drought exposure to respiratory mortality in the Upper Midwest of the United States among the general population and at-risk subgroups from 2000 to 2018. Respiratory mortality was obtained for each county and month during study period based on the 10th International Classification of Disease codes. We used the Evaporative Demand Drought Index categorized into three levels and analyzed it at two timescales: 6 months and 12 months. A Bayesian two-stage time-series modeling approach was applied to estimate the county-level and overall risk along with the 95% Credible Intervals (Cr). Stratification analyses were conducted by age group, gender, race, urbanicity, and state within the region. Statistically significant associations were identified between respiratory mortality and the severe droughts. The estimated risks were 1.151 (95% Cr: 1.126–1.178) and 1.092 (95% Cr: 1.063–1.120) for the 6 and 12 month severe droughts. Our study suggests that the risks differs by subgroups: elevated risks in elderly (higher 14.4% and 9.8% for 6 and 12 month), White (15.1% and 9.0% higher for 6 and 12 month), males (12.7% and 5.1% higher for 6 and 12 month), females (15.8% and 11.1% higher for 6 and 12 month), urban 15.8% and 8.8% higher for 6 and 12 month), and rural (13.6% and 9.9% higher for 6 and 12 month) communities. Iowa showed the greatest increase (23.1%) in the 6 month severe drought, while Minnesota had the highest 20.3% in the 12 month severe drought. Our findings suggested that the elderly, both males and females, both rural and urban areas were the most affected subgroups. These findings demonstrate the need for policymakers and communities to adopt more effective drought mitigation strategies in this region.https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5309/adafd6respiratory mortalitysevere EDDI droughtoverall riskadverse effectsdisparities |
| spellingShingle | Yeongjin Gwon Yuanyuan Ji Jesse D Berman Azar M Abadi Ronald D Leeper Jared Rennie Jesse E Bell Impacts of drought on respiratory mortality in the upper midwest United States: a population subgroup assessment Environmental Research: Health respiratory mortality severe EDDI drought overall risk adverse effects disparities |
| title | Impacts of drought on respiratory mortality in the upper midwest United States: a population subgroup assessment |
| title_full | Impacts of drought on respiratory mortality in the upper midwest United States: a population subgroup assessment |
| title_fullStr | Impacts of drought on respiratory mortality in the upper midwest United States: a population subgroup assessment |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impacts of drought on respiratory mortality in the upper midwest United States: a population subgroup assessment |
| title_short | Impacts of drought on respiratory mortality in the upper midwest United States: a population subgroup assessment |
| title_sort | impacts of drought on respiratory mortality in the upper midwest united states a population subgroup assessment |
| topic | respiratory mortality severe EDDI drought overall risk adverse effects disparities |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5309/adafd6 |
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