Mitigating Long-Term Forecasting Bias in Time-Series Neural Networks via Ensemble of Short-Term Dependencies
Time-series forecasting is essential for predicting future trends based on historical data, with significant applications in meteorology, transportation, and finance. However, existing models often exhibit unsatisfactory performance in long-term forecasting scenarios. To address this limitation, we...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2025-06-01
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| Series: | Applied Sciences |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/15/11/6371 |
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| Summary: | Time-series forecasting is essential for predicting future trends based on historical data, with significant applications in meteorology, transportation, and finance. However, existing models often exhibit unsatisfactory performance in long-term forecasting scenarios. To address this limitation, we propose the Time-Series Neural Networks via Ensemble of Short-Term Dependencies (TSNN-ESTD). This model leverages iTransformer as the base predictor to simultaneously train short-term and long-term forecasting models. The vanilla iTransformer’s linear decoding layer is optimized by replacing it with an LSTM layer, and an additional long-term model is introduced to enhance stability. The ensemble strategy employs short-term predictions to correct the bias in long-term forecasts. Our extensive experiments demonstrate that TSNN-ESTD reduces the MSE and MAE by 9.17% and 2.3% on five benchmark datasets. |
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| ISSN: | 2076-3417 |