Exploration of the spatiotemporal characteristics and triggering factors of flash flood in China

Flash floods are a major natural hazard, increasingly intensified by the growing frequency of extreme weather events, causing substantial casualties and economic losses. This study first compiled flash flood disaster data from 2017 to 2021 and analyzed its spatiotemporal distribution trends. Then, X...

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Main Authors: Lanyang Luo, Yun Wang, Qing Li, Mengze Li, Jinqi Wang, Gang Zhao, Meihong Ma
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2025-07-01
Series:Ecological Indicators
Subjects:
Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25006284
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author Lanyang Luo
Yun Wang
Qing Li
Mengze Li
Jinqi Wang
Gang Zhao
Meihong Ma
author_facet Lanyang Luo
Yun Wang
Qing Li
Mengze Li
Jinqi Wang
Gang Zhao
Meihong Ma
author_sort Lanyang Luo
collection DOAJ
description Flash floods are a major natural hazard, increasingly intensified by the growing frequency of extreme weather events, causing substantial casualties and economic losses. This study first compiled flash flood disaster data from 2017 to 2021 and analyzed its spatiotemporal distribution trends. Then, XGBoost was introduced to quantitatively identify key influencing factors of flash floods, with a global interpretation conducted using SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations). On this basis, a three-dimensional trend analysis was conducted to examine the spatial heterogeneity of flash flood drivers, thereby elucidating the key factors that govern their spatial characteristics. The results indicate that: (1) Flash flood disasters in China have exhibited an upward trend, with the lowest occurrence in 2019. Flash floods are primarily concentrated in the flood season and are most prevalent in the southwestern region, exhibiting a high consistency with the spatial distribution of heavy rainfall. (2) The explainable machine learning achieves high accuracy, with meteorological and topographical factors serving as the primary drivers of flash flood occurrence.(3) Regional variations in flash flood occurrences are significantly modulated by key environmental factors, particularly annual precipitation, elevation, and slope. Specifically, flash floods are notably suppressed in low-precipitation, high-elevation regions, while moderate elevations and steep slopes significantly enhance their occurrence. These findings offer essential theoretical and technical references for flash flood disaster prevention and management.
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institution OA Journals
issn 1470-160X
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publishDate 2025-07-01
publisher Elsevier
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series Ecological Indicators
spelling doaj-art-95e21848fb4e4523b5d6209a17f7a3a92025-08-20T02:35:56ZengElsevierEcological Indicators1470-160X2025-07-0117611369810.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113698Exploration of the spatiotemporal characteristics and triggering factors of flash flood in ChinaLanyang Luo0Yun Wang1Qing Li2Mengze Li3Jinqi Wang4Gang Zhao5Meihong Ma6Faculty of Geography, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin, ChinaFaculty of Geography, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin, ChinaChina Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing, ChinaFaculty of Geography, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin, ChinaSchool of National Safety and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, ChinaSchool of Environment and Society, Institute of Science Tokyo, Tokyo, JapanFaculty of Geography, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin, China; Tianjin Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Environment, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin, China; Corresponding author.Flash floods are a major natural hazard, increasingly intensified by the growing frequency of extreme weather events, causing substantial casualties and economic losses. This study first compiled flash flood disaster data from 2017 to 2021 and analyzed its spatiotemporal distribution trends. Then, XGBoost was introduced to quantitatively identify key influencing factors of flash floods, with a global interpretation conducted using SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations). On this basis, a three-dimensional trend analysis was conducted to examine the spatial heterogeneity of flash flood drivers, thereby elucidating the key factors that govern their spatial characteristics. The results indicate that: (1) Flash flood disasters in China have exhibited an upward trend, with the lowest occurrence in 2019. Flash floods are primarily concentrated in the flood season and are most prevalent in the southwestern region, exhibiting a high consistency with the spatial distribution of heavy rainfall. (2) The explainable machine learning achieves high accuracy, with meteorological and topographical factors serving as the primary drivers of flash flood occurrence.(3) Regional variations in flash flood occurrences are significantly modulated by key environmental factors, particularly annual precipitation, elevation, and slope. Specifically, flash floods are notably suppressed in low-precipitation, high-elevation regions, while moderate elevations and steep slopes significantly enhance their occurrence. These findings offer essential theoretical and technical references for flash flood disaster prevention and management.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25006284Flash floodSpatiotemporal characteristicsTriggering factorsXGBoostChina
spellingShingle Lanyang Luo
Yun Wang
Qing Li
Mengze Li
Jinqi Wang
Gang Zhao
Meihong Ma
Exploration of the spatiotemporal characteristics and triggering factors of flash flood in China
Ecological Indicators
Flash flood
Spatiotemporal characteristics
Triggering factors
XGBoost
China
title Exploration of the spatiotemporal characteristics and triggering factors of flash flood in China
title_full Exploration of the spatiotemporal characteristics and triggering factors of flash flood in China
title_fullStr Exploration of the spatiotemporal characteristics and triggering factors of flash flood in China
title_full_unstemmed Exploration of the spatiotemporal characteristics and triggering factors of flash flood in China
title_short Exploration of the spatiotemporal characteristics and triggering factors of flash flood in China
title_sort exploration of the spatiotemporal characteristics and triggering factors of flash flood in china
topic Flash flood
Spatiotemporal characteristics
Triggering factors
XGBoost
China
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25006284
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AT mengzeli explorationofthespatiotemporalcharacteristicsandtriggeringfactorsofflashfloodinchina
AT jinqiwang explorationofthespatiotemporalcharacteristicsandtriggeringfactorsofflashfloodinchina
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