Global burden and risk factors of type 2 diabetes mellitus from 1990 to 2021, with forecasts to 2050
BackgroundType 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) presents a substantial strain on global healthcare systems. This study seeks to offer robust scientific evidence for the effective prevention and management of T2DM globally through a comprehensive analysis of the disease’s burden, trends, and risk factors f...
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2025-08-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Endocrinology |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fendo.2025.1538143/full |
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| author | Qian Huang Qian Huang Yang Li Yang Li Minggang Yu Minggang Yu Minggang Yu Zhizi Lv Zhizi Lv Zhizi Lv Fengyi Lu Fengyi Lu Ning Xu Ning Xu Qingqing Zhang Qingqing Zhang Jiayun Shen Jiayun Shen Jinfeng Zhu Hua Jiang Hua Jiang |
| author_facet | Qian Huang Qian Huang Yang Li Yang Li Minggang Yu Minggang Yu Minggang Yu Zhizi Lv Zhizi Lv Zhizi Lv Fengyi Lu Fengyi Lu Ning Xu Ning Xu Qingqing Zhang Qingqing Zhang Jiayun Shen Jiayun Shen Jinfeng Zhu Hua Jiang Hua Jiang |
| author_sort | Qian Huang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | BackgroundType 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) presents a substantial strain on global healthcare systems. This study seeks to offer robust scientific evidence for the effective prevention and management of T2DM globally through a comprehensive analysis of the disease’s burden, trends, and risk factors from 1990 to 2021, as well as future trajectories from 2022 to 2050.MethodsData for this study were sourced from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. T2DM burden was assessed through incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), stratified by age, sex, sociodemographic index (SDI), 21 GBD regions, and 204 countries/territories. Trends from 1990 to 2021 were quantified by estimating annual percentage changes. Decomposition analysis identified the primary population-level drivers of T2DM burden changes. The population attributable fraction assessed the contribution of risk factors to the T2DM burden over the past 30 years, while the Bayesian age–period–cohort model was employed to predict the future burden driven by risk factors.ResultsIn 2021, T2DM affected 506.0 million individuals, with 23.9 million new cases, 1.6 million deaths, and 75.3 million DALYs. Between 1990 and 2021, both absolute and relative burdens of T2DM increased, particularly among males, older adults, and individuals under 40. Regions with higher SDI generally exhibited higher age-standardized incidence and prevalence rates, while those with lower SDI had elevated age-standardized mortality and DALY rates. Oceania stood out as an exception, with the highest relative burdens across all four indicators, most notably in the Marshall Islands and Fiji. The increases in incidence, DALYs, and prevalence were predominantly driven by population growth and epidemiological shifts, with aging contributing significantly to the rise in mortality. Elevated fasting plasma glucose, body mass index (BMI), and particulate pollution were major contributors to higher T2DM-related mortality and DALY rates. By 2050, high BMI, alcohol consumption, and sugary beverages are anticipated to increasingly influence the T2DM burden.ConclusionFocused, preventive interventions targeting key risk factors in high-burden groups can effectively reduce the global T2DM burden. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-9547db9f9c964fe58d97c5ea91e08968 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 1664-2392 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-08-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Endocrinology |
| spelling | doaj-art-9547db9f9c964fe58d97c5ea91e089682025-08-20T03:02:51ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Endocrinology1664-23922025-08-011610.3389/fendo.2025.15381431538143Global burden and risk factors of type 2 diabetes mellitus from 1990 to 2021, with forecasts to 2050Qian Huang0Qian Huang1Yang Li2Yang Li3Minggang Yu4Minggang Yu5Minggang Yu6Zhizi Lv7Zhizi Lv8Zhizi Lv9Fengyi Lu10Fengyi Lu11Ning Xu12Ning Xu13Qingqing Zhang14Qingqing Zhang15Jiayun Shen16Jiayun Shen17Jinfeng Zhu18Hua Jiang19Hua Jiang20Department of General Practice, Shanghai East Hospital, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai, ChinaDepartment of Geriatrics, Shanghai East Hospital, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai, ChinaDepartment of General Practice, Shanghai East Hospital, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai, ChinaDepartment of Geriatrics, Shanghai East Hospital, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai, ChinaDepartment of General Practice, Shanghai East Hospital, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai, ChinaDepartment of Geriatrics, Shanghai East Hospital, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai, ChinaDepartment of General Practice, Xietu Subdistrict Community Health Service Center, Shanghai, ChinaDepartment of General Practice, Shanghai East Hospital, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai, ChinaDepartment of Geriatrics, Shanghai East Hospital, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai, ChinaShanghai Oriental Clinical College, Nanjing Medical University, Shanghai, ChinaDepartment of General Practice, Shanghai East Hospital, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai, ChinaDepartment of Geriatrics, Shanghai East Hospital, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai, ChinaDepartment of General Practice, Shanghai East Hospital, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai, ChinaDepartment of Geriatrics, Shanghai East Hospital, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai, ChinaDepartment of General Practice, Shanghai East Hospital, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai, ChinaDepartment of Geriatrics, Shanghai East Hospital, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai, ChinaDepartment of General Practice, Shanghai East Hospital, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai, ChinaDepartment of Geriatrics, Shanghai East Hospital, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai, ChinaHunan Provincial Key Laboratory of the Research and Development of Novel Pharmaceutical Preparations, Changsha Medical University, Changsha, ChinaDepartment of General Practice, Shanghai East Hospital, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai, ChinaDepartment of Geriatrics, Shanghai East Hospital, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai, ChinaBackgroundType 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) presents a substantial strain on global healthcare systems. This study seeks to offer robust scientific evidence for the effective prevention and management of T2DM globally through a comprehensive analysis of the disease’s burden, trends, and risk factors from 1990 to 2021, as well as future trajectories from 2022 to 2050.MethodsData for this study were sourced from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. T2DM burden was assessed through incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), stratified by age, sex, sociodemographic index (SDI), 21 GBD regions, and 204 countries/territories. Trends from 1990 to 2021 were quantified by estimating annual percentage changes. Decomposition analysis identified the primary population-level drivers of T2DM burden changes. The population attributable fraction assessed the contribution of risk factors to the T2DM burden over the past 30 years, while the Bayesian age–period–cohort model was employed to predict the future burden driven by risk factors.ResultsIn 2021, T2DM affected 506.0 million individuals, with 23.9 million new cases, 1.6 million deaths, and 75.3 million DALYs. Between 1990 and 2021, both absolute and relative burdens of T2DM increased, particularly among males, older adults, and individuals under 40. Regions with higher SDI generally exhibited higher age-standardized incidence and prevalence rates, while those with lower SDI had elevated age-standardized mortality and DALY rates. Oceania stood out as an exception, with the highest relative burdens across all four indicators, most notably in the Marshall Islands and Fiji. The increases in incidence, DALYs, and prevalence were predominantly driven by population growth and epidemiological shifts, with aging contributing significantly to the rise in mortality. Elevated fasting plasma glucose, body mass index (BMI), and particulate pollution were major contributors to higher T2DM-related mortality and DALY rates. By 2050, high BMI, alcohol consumption, and sugary beverages are anticipated to increasingly influence the T2DM burden.ConclusionFocused, preventive interventions targeting key risk factors in high-burden groups can effectively reduce the global T2DM burden.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fendo.2025.1538143/fullglobal burdentype 2 diabetes mellitustrend analysisdecomposition analysisrisk factorforecast |
| spellingShingle | Qian Huang Qian Huang Yang Li Yang Li Minggang Yu Minggang Yu Minggang Yu Zhizi Lv Zhizi Lv Zhizi Lv Fengyi Lu Fengyi Lu Ning Xu Ning Xu Qingqing Zhang Qingqing Zhang Jiayun Shen Jiayun Shen Jinfeng Zhu Hua Jiang Hua Jiang Global burden and risk factors of type 2 diabetes mellitus from 1990 to 2021, with forecasts to 2050 Frontiers in Endocrinology global burden type 2 diabetes mellitus trend analysis decomposition analysis risk factor forecast |
| title | Global burden and risk factors of type 2 diabetes mellitus from 1990 to 2021, with forecasts to 2050 |
| title_full | Global burden and risk factors of type 2 diabetes mellitus from 1990 to 2021, with forecasts to 2050 |
| title_fullStr | Global burden and risk factors of type 2 diabetes mellitus from 1990 to 2021, with forecasts to 2050 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global burden and risk factors of type 2 diabetes mellitus from 1990 to 2021, with forecasts to 2050 |
| title_short | Global burden and risk factors of type 2 diabetes mellitus from 1990 to 2021, with forecasts to 2050 |
| title_sort | global burden and risk factors of type 2 diabetes mellitus from 1990 to 2021 with forecasts to 2050 |
| topic | global burden type 2 diabetes mellitus trend analysis decomposition analysis risk factor forecast |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fendo.2025.1538143/full |
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