On the predictability limit of convection models of the Earth's mantle
Abstract Reconstructing convective flow in the Earth's mantle is a crucial issue for a diversity of disciplines, from seismology to sedimentology. The common and fundamental limitation of these reconstructions based on geodynamic modeling is the unknown initial conditions. Because of the chaoti...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2014-06-01
|
| Series: | Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GC005254 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1849419464295055360 |
|---|---|
| author | Léa Bello Nicolas Coltice Tobias Rolf Paul J. Tackley |
| author_facet | Léa Bello Nicolas Coltice Tobias Rolf Paul J. Tackley |
| author_sort | Léa Bello |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Reconstructing convective flow in the Earth's mantle is a crucial issue for a diversity of disciplines, from seismology to sedimentology. The common and fundamental limitation of these reconstructions based on geodynamic modeling is the unknown initial conditions. Because of the chaotic nature of convection in the Earth's mantle, errors in initial conditions grow exponentially with time and limit forecasting and hindcasting abilities. In this work, we estimate for the first time the limit of predictability of Earth's mantle convection. Following the twin experiment method, we compute the Lyapunov time (i.e., e‐folding time) for state of the art 3‐D spherical convection models, varying rheology, and Rayleigh number. Our most Earth‐like and optimistic solution gives a Lyapunov time of 136 ± 13 Myr. Rough estimates of the uncertainties in best guessed initial conditions are around 5%, leading to a limit of predictability for mantle convection of 95 Myr. Our results suggest that error growth could produce unrealistic convective structures over time scales shorter than that of Pangea dispersal. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-9507b09cba4a42b4812e5d8ca39f8c85 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1525-2027 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2014-06-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems |
| spelling | doaj-art-9507b09cba4a42b4812e5d8ca39f8c852025-08-20T03:32:04ZengWileyGeochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems1525-20272014-06-011562319232810.1002/2014GC005254On the predictability limit of convection models of the Earth's mantleLéa Bello0Nicolas Coltice1Tobias Rolf2Paul J. Tackley3Laboratoire de Géologie de LyonUMR 5276 CNRS, ENS, Université Lyon 1Lyon FranceLaboratoire de Géologie de LyonUMR 5276 CNRS, ENS, Université Lyon 1Lyon FranceInstitute of GeophysicsETH ZurichZurich SwitzerlandInstitute of GeophysicsETH ZurichZurich SwitzerlandAbstract Reconstructing convective flow in the Earth's mantle is a crucial issue for a diversity of disciplines, from seismology to sedimentology. The common and fundamental limitation of these reconstructions based on geodynamic modeling is the unknown initial conditions. Because of the chaotic nature of convection in the Earth's mantle, errors in initial conditions grow exponentially with time and limit forecasting and hindcasting abilities. In this work, we estimate for the first time the limit of predictability of Earth's mantle convection. Following the twin experiment method, we compute the Lyapunov time (i.e., e‐folding time) for state of the art 3‐D spherical convection models, varying rheology, and Rayleigh number. Our most Earth‐like and optimistic solution gives a Lyapunov time of 136 ± 13 Myr. Rough estimates of the uncertainties in best guessed initial conditions are around 5%, leading to a limit of predictability for mantle convection of 95 Myr. Our results suggest that error growth could produce unrealistic convective structures over time scales shorter than that of Pangea dispersal.https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GC005254convection modelsEarth's mantlepredictabilityLyapunov timechaotic systems |
| spellingShingle | Léa Bello Nicolas Coltice Tobias Rolf Paul J. Tackley On the predictability limit of convection models of the Earth's mantle Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems convection models Earth's mantle predictability Lyapunov time chaotic systems |
| title | On the predictability limit of convection models of the Earth's mantle |
| title_full | On the predictability limit of convection models of the Earth's mantle |
| title_fullStr | On the predictability limit of convection models of the Earth's mantle |
| title_full_unstemmed | On the predictability limit of convection models of the Earth's mantle |
| title_short | On the predictability limit of convection models of the Earth's mantle |
| title_sort | on the predictability limit of convection models of the earth s mantle |
| topic | convection models Earth's mantle predictability Lyapunov time chaotic systems |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GC005254 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT leabello onthepredictabilitylimitofconvectionmodelsoftheearthsmantle AT nicolascoltice onthepredictabilitylimitofconvectionmodelsoftheearthsmantle AT tobiasrolf onthepredictabilitylimitofconvectionmodelsoftheearthsmantle AT pauljtackley onthepredictabilitylimitofconvectionmodelsoftheearthsmantle |