Impact of the potential evapotranspiration models on drought monitoring

Study region: China Study focus: Potential evapotranspiration (PET) refers to the atmosphere evaporative demand, is a main factor in drought monitoring and prediction. Although over 100 PET models are available, the impact of the model choice on drought monitoring remains unclear. Thus, in this stud...

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Main Authors: Weiqi Liu, Shaoxiu Ma, Haiyang Xi, Linhao Liang, Kun Feng, Atsushi Tsunekawa
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2025-04-01
Series:Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies
Subjects:
Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581825000606
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author Weiqi Liu
Shaoxiu Ma
Haiyang Xi
Linhao Liang
Kun Feng
Atsushi Tsunekawa
author_facet Weiqi Liu
Shaoxiu Ma
Haiyang Xi
Linhao Liang
Kun Feng
Atsushi Tsunekawa
author_sort Weiqi Liu
collection DOAJ
description Study region: China Study focus: Potential evapotranspiration (PET) refers to the atmosphere evaporative demand, is a main factor in drought monitoring and prediction. Although over 100 PET models are available, the impact of the model choice on drought monitoring remains unclear. Thus, in this study, 35 typical PET models were selected, aiming to quantify the uncertainty of PET estimation and drought monitoring due to the PET model choice. New hydrological insights for the region: The PET estimated by different PET models were different significantly, with the uncertainty (expressed as standard deviation) of the PET values ranging from 132 to 651 mm/yr. In the arid and humid regions, the PET trends estimated by some models might be opposite. These differences further contributed to the increased uncertainty in drought monitoring. In the arid and semi-arid regions, the meteorological drought (SPEI) and agricultural drought (PDSI) trends, characteristics, and area monitored by some PET models were significantly too high or too low, which resulted in a maximum difference of 2.1-fold in the meteorological drought severity and 2.2-fold in the agricultural drought severity. Drought characteristics monitored by models based on temperature and mass-transfer were always more severe. This study quantified the uncertainty in PET estimation and drought monitoring arising from the PET model choice, emphasizing the importance of selecting a suitable PET model in reducing uncertainty in drought monitoring.
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publisher Elsevier
record_format Article
series Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies
spelling doaj-art-94fe0a74af4e48acaefb4dd07194be0e2025-08-20T03:01:35ZengElsevierJournal of Hydrology: Regional Studies2214-58182025-04-015810223610.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102236Impact of the potential evapotranspiration models on drought monitoringWeiqi Liu0Shaoxiu Ma1Haiyang Xi2Linhao Liang3Kun Feng4Atsushi Tsunekawa5Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, ChinaKey Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China; Corresponding author.Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, ChinaKey Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, ChinaKey Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, ChinaArid Land Research Center, Tottori University, Tottori 680-8550, JapanStudy region: China Study focus: Potential evapotranspiration (PET) refers to the atmosphere evaporative demand, is a main factor in drought monitoring and prediction. Although over 100 PET models are available, the impact of the model choice on drought monitoring remains unclear. Thus, in this study, 35 typical PET models were selected, aiming to quantify the uncertainty of PET estimation and drought monitoring due to the PET model choice. New hydrological insights for the region: The PET estimated by different PET models were different significantly, with the uncertainty (expressed as standard deviation) of the PET values ranging from 132 to 651 mm/yr. In the arid and humid regions, the PET trends estimated by some models might be opposite. These differences further contributed to the increased uncertainty in drought monitoring. In the arid and semi-arid regions, the meteorological drought (SPEI) and agricultural drought (PDSI) trends, characteristics, and area monitored by some PET models were significantly too high or too low, which resulted in a maximum difference of 2.1-fold in the meteorological drought severity and 2.2-fold in the agricultural drought severity. Drought characteristics monitored by models based on temperature and mass-transfer were always more severe. This study quantified the uncertainty in PET estimation and drought monitoring arising from the PET model choice, emphasizing the importance of selecting a suitable PET model in reducing uncertainty in drought monitoring.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581825000606Potential evapotranspiration modelsDrought monitoringUncertaintyMeteorological DroughtAgricultural Drought
spellingShingle Weiqi Liu
Shaoxiu Ma
Haiyang Xi
Linhao Liang
Kun Feng
Atsushi Tsunekawa
Impact of the potential evapotranspiration models on drought monitoring
Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies
Potential evapotranspiration models
Drought monitoring
Uncertainty
Meteorological Drought
Agricultural Drought
title Impact of the potential evapotranspiration models on drought monitoring
title_full Impact of the potential evapotranspiration models on drought monitoring
title_fullStr Impact of the potential evapotranspiration models on drought monitoring
title_full_unstemmed Impact of the potential evapotranspiration models on drought monitoring
title_short Impact of the potential evapotranspiration models on drought monitoring
title_sort impact of the potential evapotranspiration models on drought monitoring
topic Potential evapotranspiration models
Drought monitoring
Uncertainty
Meteorological Drought
Agricultural Drought
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581825000606
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AT linhaoliang impactofthepotentialevapotranspirationmodelsondroughtmonitoring
AT kunfeng impactofthepotentialevapotranspirationmodelsondroughtmonitoring
AT atsushitsunekawa impactofthepotentialevapotranspirationmodelsondroughtmonitoring