Pre-adopting new urban areas to climate change with coastal Nature-based solutions
Global climate change-induced phenomena such as sea-level rise and coastal hazards increasingly threaten coastal communities. As a proactive strategy, integrating Nature-based Solutions (NbS) into urban planning is critical for enhancing climate resilience, yet existing frameworks lack spatial and e...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-08-01
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| Series: | Ecological Indicators |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25006235 |
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| author | Haoqi Wang Baolong Han Tong Wu Felix Leung Yingqi Ren |
| author_facet | Haoqi Wang Baolong Han Tong Wu Felix Leung Yingqi Ren |
| author_sort | Haoqi Wang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Global climate change-induced phenomena such as sea-level rise and coastal hazards increasingly threaten coastal communities. As a proactive strategy, integrating Nature-based Solutions (NbS) into urban planning is critical for enhancing climate resilience, yet existing frameworks lack spatial and ecosystem-based assessments tailored for new cities. This study develops a Comprehensive Coastal Vulnerability Index (CCVI) that integrates risk and resilience metrics and proposes an innovative spatial decay model to quantify inland vulnerability propagation under sea-level rise. Using Hong Kong’s planned Northern Metropolis Development (NMD) as a case study, we simulate vulnerability dynamics under the 2100 sea-level rise scenario (SSP4.5), urbanization scenario, and NbS habitat restoration scenario. Results reveal that sea-level rise increases coastal vulnerability by 20.73% compared to the 2021 baseline, while NbS habitat restoration reduces vulnerability by 6.01%. Notably, combining NbS with urbanization achieves a 7.52% reduction, demonstrating the efficacy of preemptive spatial planning. Spatial analysis identifies high-risk clusters in eastern NMD (e.g., Sha Tau Kok Bay), where natural habitat coverage is minimal. The CCVI framework advances coastal vulnerability assessments by embedding resilience metrics and spatial heterogeneity, offering actionable insights for policymakers to prioritize NbS in new city masterplans. This study underscores the imperative of coupling ecological restoration with infrastructure to achieve sustainable coastal development in rapidly urbanizing regions. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-94cf37bf4f2b4e87ba81d531a6fd0690 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 1470-160X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-08-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecological Indicators |
| spelling | doaj-art-94cf37bf4f2b4e87ba81d531a6fd06902025-08-20T02:43:25ZengElsevierEcological Indicators1470-160X2025-08-0117711369310.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113693Pre-adopting new urban areas to climate change with coastal Nature-based solutionsHaoqi Wang0Baolong Han1Tong Wu2Felix Leung3Yingqi Ren4State Key Laboratory of Regional and Urban Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Regional and Urban Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China; Corresponding author at: Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 18 Shuangqing Road, Beijing, China.Natural Capital Project, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USAThe Nature Conservancy, Hong Kong, China; Institute of Environment, Energy and Sustainability, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Regional and Urban Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, ChinaGlobal climate change-induced phenomena such as sea-level rise and coastal hazards increasingly threaten coastal communities. As a proactive strategy, integrating Nature-based Solutions (NbS) into urban planning is critical for enhancing climate resilience, yet existing frameworks lack spatial and ecosystem-based assessments tailored for new cities. This study develops a Comprehensive Coastal Vulnerability Index (CCVI) that integrates risk and resilience metrics and proposes an innovative spatial decay model to quantify inland vulnerability propagation under sea-level rise. Using Hong Kong’s planned Northern Metropolis Development (NMD) as a case study, we simulate vulnerability dynamics under the 2100 sea-level rise scenario (SSP4.5), urbanization scenario, and NbS habitat restoration scenario. Results reveal that sea-level rise increases coastal vulnerability by 20.73% compared to the 2021 baseline, while NbS habitat restoration reduces vulnerability by 6.01%. Notably, combining NbS with urbanization achieves a 7.52% reduction, demonstrating the efficacy of preemptive spatial planning. Spatial analysis identifies high-risk clusters in eastern NMD (e.g., Sha Tau Kok Bay), where natural habitat coverage is minimal. The CCVI framework advances coastal vulnerability assessments by embedding resilience metrics and spatial heterogeneity, offering actionable insights for policymakers to prioritize NbS in new city masterplans. This study underscores the imperative of coupling ecological restoration with infrastructure to achieve sustainable coastal development in rapidly urbanizing regions.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25006235Coastal vulnerabilityNature-based solutionsEcosystem serviceClimate changeNorthern metropolis development |
| spellingShingle | Haoqi Wang Baolong Han Tong Wu Felix Leung Yingqi Ren Pre-adopting new urban areas to climate change with coastal Nature-based solutions Ecological Indicators Coastal vulnerability Nature-based solutions Ecosystem service Climate change Northern metropolis development |
| title | Pre-adopting new urban areas to climate change with coastal Nature-based solutions |
| title_full | Pre-adopting new urban areas to climate change with coastal Nature-based solutions |
| title_fullStr | Pre-adopting new urban areas to climate change with coastal Nature-based solutions |
| title_full_unstemmed | Pre-adopting new urban areas to climate change with coastal Nature-based solutions |
| title_short | Pre-adopting new urban areas to climate change with coastal Nature-based solutions |
| title_sort | pre adopting new urban areas to climate change with coastal nature based solutions |
| topic | Coastal vulnerability Nature-based solutions Ecosystem service Climate change Northern metropolis development |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25006235 |
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