Pre-adopting new urban areas to climate change with coastal Nature-based solutions

Global climate change-induced phenomena such as sea-level rise and coastal hazards increasingly threaten coastal communities. As a proactive strategy, integrating Nature-based Solutions (NbS) into urban planning is critical for enhancing climate resilience, yet existing frameworks lack spatial and e...

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Main Authors: Haoqi Wang, Baolong Han, Tong Wu, Felix Leung, Yingqi Ren
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2025-08-01
Series:Ecological Indicators
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Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25006235
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author Haoqi Wang
Baolong Han
Tong Wu
Felix Leung
Yingqi Ren
author_facet Haoqi Wang
Baolong Han
Tong Wu
Felix Leung
Yingqi Ren
author_sort Haoqi Wang
collection DOAJ
description Global climate change-induced phenomena such as sea-level rise and coastal hazards increasingly threaten coastal communities. As a proactive strategy, integrating Nature-based Solutions (NbS) into urban planning is critical for enhancing climate resilience, yet existing frameworks lack spatial and ecosystem-based assessments tailored for new cities. This study develops a Comprehensive Coastal Vulnerability Index (CCVI) that integrates risk and resilience metrics and proposes an innovative spatial decay model to quantify inland vulnerability propagation under sea-level rise. Using Hong Kong’s planned Northern Metropolis Development (NMD) as a case study, we simulate vulnerability dynamics under the 2100 sea-level rise scenario (SSP4.5), urbanization scenario, and NbS habitat restoration scenario. Results reveal that sea-level rise increases coastal vulnerability by 20.73% compared to the 2021 baseline, while NbS habitat restoration reduces vulnerability by 6.01%. Notably, combining NbS with urbanization achieves a 7.52% reduction, demonstrating the efficacy of preemptive spatial planning. Spatial analysis identifies high-risk clusters in eastern NMD (e.g., Sha Tau Kok Bay), where natural habitat coverage is minimal. The CCVI framework advances coastal vulnerability assessments by embedding resilience metrics and spatial heterogeneity, offering actionable insights for policymakers to prioritize NbS in new city masterplans. This study underscores the imperative of coupling ecological restoration with infrastructure to achieve sustainable coastal development in rapidly urbanizing regions.
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publishDate 2025-08-01
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spelling doaj-art-94cf37bf4f2b4e87ba81d531a6fd06902025-08-20T02:43:25ZengElsevierEcological Indicators1470-160X2025-08-0117711369310.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113693Pre-adopting new urban areas to climate change with coastal Nature-based solutionsHaoqi Wang0Baolong Han1Tong Wu2Felix Leung3Yingqi Ren4State Key Laboratory of Regional and Urban Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Regional and Urban Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China; Corresponding author at: Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 18 Shuangqing Road, Beijing, China.Natural Capital Project, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USAThe Nature Conservancy, Hong Kong, China; Institute of Environment, Energy and Sustainability, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Regional and Urban Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, ChinaGlobal climate change-induced phenomena such as sea-level rise and coastal hazards increasingly threaten coastal communities. As a proactive strategy, integrating Nature-based Solutions (NbS) into urban planning is critical for enhancing climate resilience, yet existing frameworks lack spatial and ecosystem-based assessments tailored for new cities. This study develops a Comprehensive Coastal Vulnerability Index (CCVI) that integrates risk and resilience metrics and proposes an innovative spatial decay model to quantify inland vulnerability propagation under sea-level rise. Using Hong Kong’s planned Northern Metropolis Development (NMD) as a case study, we simulate vulnerability dynamics under the 2100 sea-level rise scenario (SSP4.5), urbanization scenario, and NbS habitat restoration scenario. Results reveal that sea-level rise increases coastal vulnerability by 20.73% compared to the 2021 baseline, while NbS habitat restoration reduces vulnerability by 6.01%. Notably, combining NbS with urbanization achieves a 7.52% reduction, demonstrating the efficacy of preemptive spatial planning. Spatial analysis identifies high-risk clusters in eastern NMD (e.g., Sha Tau Kok Bay), where natural habitat coverage is minimal. The CCVI framework advances coastal vulnerability assessments by embedding resilience metrics and spatial heterogeneity, offering actionable insights for policymakers to prioritize NbS in new city masterplans. This study underscores the imperative of coupling ecological restoration with infrastructure to achieve sustainable coastal development in rapidly urbanizing regions.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25006235Coastal vulnerabilityNature-based solutionsEcosystem serviceClimate changeNorthern metropolis development
spellingShingle Haoqi Wang
Baolong Han
Tong Wu
Felix Leung
Yingqi Ren
Pre-adopting new urban areas to climate change with coastal Nature-based solutions
Ecological Indicators
Coastal vulnerability
Nature-based solutions
Ecosystem service
Climate change
Northern metropolis development
title Pre-adopting new urban areas to climate change with coastal Nature-based solutions
title_full Pre-adopting new urban areas to climate change with coastal Nature-based solutions
title_fullStr Pre-adopting new urban areas to climate change with coastal Nature-based solutions
title_full_unstemmed Pre-adopting new urban areas to climate change with coastal Nature-based solutions
title_short Pre-adopting new urban areas to climate change with coastal Nature-based solutions
title_sort pre adopting new urban areas to climate change with coastal nature based solutions
topic Coastal vulnerability
Nature-based solutions
Ecosystem service
Climate change
Northern metropolis development
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25006235
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AT tongwu preadoptingnewurbanareastoclimatechangewithcoastalnaturebasedsolutions
AT felixleung preadoptingnewurbanareastoclimatechangewithcoastalnaturebasedsolutions
AT yingqiren preadoptingnewurbanareastoclimatechangewithcoastalnaturebasedsolutions