The rising burden of diabetes and state-wise variations in India: insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 1990–2021 and projections to 2031
BackgroundDiabetes is a major public health concern in India, contributing significantly to morbidity and mortality. With variations in disease burden across states, a detailed understanding of trends in incidence, prevalence, and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) is essential for targeted inte...
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2025-05-01
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| author | Shubham Chauhan Mahalaqua Nazli Khatib Suhas Ballal Pooja Bansal Kiran Bhopte Abhay M. Gaidhane Balvir S. Tomar Ayash Ashraf M. Ravi Kumar Ashish Singh Chauhan Muhammed Shabil Diptismita Jena Ganesh Bushi Prakasini Satapathy Lara Jain Vaibhav Jaiswal Manvi Pant |
| author_facet | Shubham Chauhan Mahalaqua Nazli Khatib Suhas Ballal Pooja Bansal Kiran Bhopte Abhay M. Gaidhane Balvir S. Tomar Ayash Ashraf M. Ravi Kumar Ashish Singh Chauhan Muhammed Shabil Diptismita Jena Ganesh Bushi Prakasini Satapathy Lara Jain Vaibhav Jaiswal Manvi Pant |
| author_sort | Shubham Chauhan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | BackgroundDiabetes is a major public health concern in India, contributing significantly to morbidity and mortality. With variations in disease burden across states, a detailed understanding of trends in incidence, prevalence, and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) is essential for targeted interventions.MethodsThis study utilized Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data from 1990 to 2021 to examine trends in diabetes across Indian states. Age-standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs were analyzed using Join point regression to estimate Annual Percentage Change (APC). Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were employed to project diabetes trends up to 2031.While the GBD data provide robust national and regional estimates, their modeled nature may not capture the full spectrum of local epidemiological variations.ResultsDiabetes incidence increased from 162.74 to 264.53 per 100,000 between 1990 and 2021, with an APC of 0.63%. Joinpoint analysis identified episodic surges in incidence, with APCs of 2.25% during 1996–1999 and 2.07% during 2005–2011, suggesting intervals of accelerated increase relative to the gradual progression typically observed in chronic conditions. Mortality rose from 23.09 to 31.12 per 100,000 (APC: 0.12%). Southern and Western states, such as Tamil Nadu and Goa, exhibited the highest prevalence and DALYs. Forecasted trends indicate that by 2031, the prevalence will reach 8585.45 per 100,000, and DALYs will exceed 1241.57 per 100,000.ConclusionThe burden of diabetes in India has risen markedly over the past three decades. These findings underscore the urgent need for health policies that emphasize lifestyle modifications and improved healthcare access. A comprehensive approach that integrates primary prevention through community-based health education, dietary counseling, and initiatives to promote physical activity with secondary prevention measures such as systematic screening and timely clinical management, is essential for effective diabetes control and management in high-burden states. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-9490e83ef85f4b4f92e5f464539c242d |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1664-2392 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-05-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
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| series | Frontiers in Endocrinology |
| spelling | doaj-art-9490e83ef85f4b4f92e5f464539c242d2025-08-20T02:15:29ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Endocrinology1664-23922025-05-011610.3389/fendo.2025.15051431505143The rising burden of diabetes and state-wise variations in India: insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 1990–2021 and projections to 2031Shubham Chauhan0Mahalaqua Nazli Khatib1Suhas Ballal2Pooja Bansal3Kiran Bhopte4Abhay M. Gaidhane5Balvir S. Tomar6Ayash Ashraf7M. Ravi Kumar8Ashish Singh Chauhan9Muhammed Shabil10Diptismita Jena11Ganesh Bushi12Prakasini Satapathy13Lara Jain14Vaibhav Jaiswal15Manvi Pant16Evidence for Policy and Learning, Global Center for Evidence Synthesis, Chandigarh, IndiaDivision of Evidence Synthesis, Global Consortium of Public Health and Research, Datta Meghe Institute of Higher Education, Wardha, IndiaDepartment of Chemistry and Biochemistry, School of Sciences, JAIN (Deemed to be University), Bangalore, Karnataka, IndiaDepartment of Allied Healthcare and Sciences, Vivekananda Global University, Jaipur, Rajasthan, IndiaInfotech Education Society (IES) Institute of Pharmacy, IES University, Bhopal, Madhya Pradesh, IndiaJawaharlal Nehru Medical College, and Global Health Academy, School of Epidemiology and Public Health, Datta Meghe Institute of Higher Education, Wardha, IndiaInstitute of Pediatric Gastroenterology and Hepatology, National Institute of Medical Sciences University, Jaipur, IndiaChandigarh Pharmacy College, Chandigarh Group of College, Mohali, Punjab, IndiaDepartment of Chemistry, Raghu Engineering College, Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh, India0Division of Research and Innovation, Uttaranchal Institute of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Uttaranchal University, Dehradun, India1University Center for Research and Development, Chandigarh University, Mohali, Punjab, India2Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Graphic Era (Deemed to be University), Dehradun, India3School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Lovely Professional University, Phagwara, India4Medical Laboratories Techniques Department, AL-Mustaqbal University, Hillah, Babil, Iraq5Department of Dentistry, Graphic Era (Deemed to be University), Dehradun, India5Department of Dentistry, Graphic Era (Deemed to be University), Dehradun, India6New Delhi Institute of Management, Delhi, IndiaBackgroundDiabetes is a major public health concern in India, contributing significantly to morbidity and mortality. With variations in disease burden across states, a detailed understanding of trends in incidence, prevalence, and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) is essential for targeted interventions.MethodsThis study utilized Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data from 1990 to 2021 to examine trends in diabetes across Indian states. Age-standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs were analyzed using Join point regression to estimate Annual Percentage Change (APC). Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were employed to project diabetes trends up to 2031.While the GBD data provide robust national and regional estimates, their modeled nature may not capture the full spectrum of local epidemiological variations.ResultsDiabetes incidence increased from 162.74 to 264.53 per 100,000 between 1990 and 2021, with an APC of 0.63%. Joinpoint analysis identified episodic surges in incidence, with APCs of 2.25% during 1996–1999 and 2.07% during 2005–2011, suggesting intervals of accelerated increase relative to the gradual progression typically observed in chronic conditions. Mortality rose from 23.09 to 31.12 per 100,000 (APC: 0.12%). Southern and Western states, such as Tamil Nadu and Goa, exhibited the highest prevalence and DALYs. Forecasted trends indicate that by 2031, the prevalence will reach 8585.45 per 100,000, and DALYs will exceed 1241.57 per 100,000.ConclusionThe burden of diabetes in India has risen markedly over the past three decades. These findings underscore the urgent need for health policies that emphasize lifestyle modifications and improved healthcare access. A comprehensive approach that integrates primary prevention through community-based health education, dietary counseling, and initiatives to promote physical activity with secondary prevention measures such as systematic screening and timely clinical management, is essential for effective diabetes control and management in high-burden states.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fendo.2025.1505143/fulldiabetesincidencemortalityDALYsIndiaGBD study |
| spellingShingle | Shubham Chauhan Mahalaqua Nazli Khatib Suhas Ballal Pooja Bansal Kiran Bhopte Abhay M. Gaidhane Balvir S. Tomar Ayash Ashraf M. Ravi Kumar Ashish Singh Chauhan Muhammed Shabil Diptismita Jena Ganesh Bushi Prakasini Satapathy Lara Jain Vaibhav Jaiswal Manvi Pant The rising burden of diabetes and state-wise variations in India: insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 1990–2021 and projections to 2031 Frontiers in Endocrinology diabetes incidence mortality DALYs India GBD study |
| title | The rising burden of diabetes and state-wise variations in India: insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 1990–2021 and projections to 2031 |
| title_full | The rising burden of diabetes and state-wise variations in India: insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 1990–2021 and projections to 2031 |
| title_fullStr | The rising burden of diabetes and state-wise variations in India: insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 1990–2021 and projections to 2031 |
| title_full_unstemmed | The rising burden of diabetes and state-wise variations in India: insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 1990–2021 and projections to 2031 |
| title_short | The rising burden of diabetes and state-wise variations in India: insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 1990–2021 and projections to 2031 |
| title_sort | rising burden of diabetes and state wise variations in india insights from the global burden of disease study 1990 2021 and projections to 2031 |
| topic | diabetes incidence mortality DALYs India GBD study |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fendo.2025.1505143/full |
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