Cost-Effectiveness of Introducing Nuvaxovid to COVID-19 Vaccination in the United Kingdom: A Dynamic Transmission Model
<b>Background/Objectives:</b> Vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 remains a key measure to control COVID-19. Nuvaxovid, a recombinant Matrix-M–adjuvanted protein-based vaccine, showed similar efficacy to mRNA vaccines in clinical trials and real-world studies, with lower rates of reactogenici...
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| Format: | Article |
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MDPI AG
2025-02-01
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| Series: | Vaccines |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/13/2/187 |
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| author | Clive Pritchard Lucie Kutikova Richard Pitman Kira Zhi Hua Lai Hadi Beyhaghi IIana Gibbons Amanda Erbe Marija Živković-Gojović Catherine Cosgrove Mark Sculpher David Salisbury |
| author_facet | Clive Pritchard Lucie Kutikova Richard Pitman Kira Zhi Hua Lai Hadi Beyhaghi IIana Gibbons Amanda Erbe Marija Živković-Gojović Catherine Cosgrove Mark Sculpher David Salisbury |
| author_sort | Clive Pritchard |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <b>Background/Objectives:</b> Vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 remains a key measure to control COVID-19. Nuvaxovid, a recombinant Matrix-M–adjuvanted protein-based vaccine, showed similar efficacy to mRNA vaccines in clinical trials and real-world studies, with lower rates of reactogenicity. <b>Methods:</b> To support decision making on UK vaccine selection, a population-based compartmental dynamic transmission model with a cost-utility component was developed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of Nuvaxovid compared with mRNA vaccines from a UK National Health Service perspective. The model was calibrated to official epidemiology statistics for mortality, incidence, and hospitalisation. Scenario and sensitivity analyses were conducted. <b>Results:</b> In the probabilistic base case, a Nuvaxovid-only strategy provided total incremental cost savings of GBP 1,338,323 and 1558 additional quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) compared with an mRNA-only vaccination strategy. Cost savings were driven by reduced cold chain-related operational costs and vaccine wastage, while QALY gains were driven by potential differences in vaccine tolerability. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicated an approximately 70% probability of cost-effectiveness with Nuvaxovid-only versus mRNA-only vaccination across most cost-effectiveness thresholds (up to GBP 300,000/QALY gained). <b>Conclusions:</b> Nuvaxovid remained dominant over mRNA vaccines in scenario analyses assessing vaccine efficacy waning, Nuvaxovid market shares, and the vaccinated population. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-947192339ad944c3b42d93fc87faf6cd |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2076-393X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Vaccines |
| spelling | doaj-art-947192339ad944c3b42d93fc87faf6cd2025-08-20T03:12:12ZengMDPI AGVaccines2076-393X2025-02-0113218710.3390/vaccines13020187Cost-Effectiveness of Introducing Nuvaxovid to COVID-19 Vaccination in the United Kingdom: A Dynamic Transmission ModelClive Pritchard0Lucie Kutikova1Richard Pitman2Kira Zhi Hua Lai3Hadi Beyhaghi4IIana Gibbons5Amanda Erbe6Marija Živković-Gojović7Catherine Cosgrove8Mark Sculpher9David Salisbury10ICON Clinical Research, Reading RG2 6AD, UKNovavax, 8001 Zürich, SwitzerlandICON Clinical Research, Reading RG2 6AD, UKICON Clinical Research, Toronto, ON L7N 3G2, CanadaNovavax, Gaithersburg, MD 20878, USANovavax, Reading RG2 6GP, UKRTI Health Solutions, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709, USAICON Clinical Research, Toronto, ON L7N 3G2, CanadaSt. George’s University Hospital, London SW17 0QT, UKCentre for Health Economics, University of York, York YO10 5DD, UKRoyal Institute of International Affairs, Chatham House, London SW1Y 4LE, UK<b>Background/Objectives:</b> Vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 remains a key measure to control COVID-19. Nuvaxovid, a recombinant Matrix-M–adjuvanted protein-based vaccine, showed similar efficacy to mRNA vaccines in clinical trials and real-world studies, with lower rates of reactogenicity. <b>Methods:</b> To support decision making on UK vaccine selection, a population-based compartmental dynamic transmission model with a cost-utility component was developed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of Nuvaxovid compared with mRNA vaccines from a UK National Health Service perspective. The model was calibrated to official epidemiology statistics for mortality, incidence, and hospitalisation. Scenario and sensitivity analyses were conducted. <b>Results:</b> In the probabilistic base case, a Nuvaxovid-only strategy provided total incremental cost savings of GBP 1,338,323 and 1558 additional quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) compared with an mRNA-only vaccination strategy. Cost savings were driven by reduced cold chain-related operational costs and vaccine wastage, while QALY gains were driven by potential differences in vaccine tolerability. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicated an approximately 70% probability of cost-effectiveness with Nuvaxovid-only versus mRNA-only vaccination across most cost-effectiveness thresholds (up to GBP 300,000/QALY gained). <b>Conclusions:</b> Nuvaxovid remained dominant over mRNA vaccines in scenario analyses assessing vaccine efficacy waning, Nuvaxovid market shares, and the vaccinated population.https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/13/2/187SARS-CoV-2COVID-19 vaccinesdynamic transmissioncost-effectivenesscost-utilityCOVID-19 |
| spellingShingle | Clive Pritchard Lucie Kutikova Richard Pitman Kira Zhi Hua Lai Hadi Beyhaghi IIana Gibbons Amanda Erbe Marija Živković-Gojović Catherine Cosgrove Mark Sculpher David Salisbury Cost-Effectiveness of Introducing Nuvaxovid to COVID-19 Vaccination in the United Kingdom: A Dynamic Transmission Model Vaccines SARS-CoV-2 COVID-19 vaccines dynamic transmission cost-effectiveness cost-utility COVID-19 |
| title | Cost-Effectiveness of Introducing Nuvaxovid to COVID-19 Vaccination in the United Kingdom: A Dynamic Transmission Model |
| title_full | Cost-Effectiveness of Introducing Nuvaxovid to COVID-19 Vaccination in the United Kingdom: A Dynamic Transmission Model |
| title_fullStr | Cost-Effectiveness of Introducing Nuvaxovid to COVID-19 Vaccination in the United Kingdom: A Dynamic Transmission Model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Cost-Effectiveness of Introducing Nuvaxovid to COVID-19 Vaccination in the United Kingdom: A Dynamic Transmission Model |
| title_short | Cost-Effectiveness of Introducing Nuvaxovid to COVID-19 Vaccination in the United Kingdom: A Dynamic Transmission Model |
| title_sort | cost effectiveness of introducing nuvaxovid to covid 19 vaccination in the united kingdom a dynamic transmission model |
| topic | SARS-CoV-2 COVID-19 vaccines dynamic transmission cost-effectiveness cost-utility COVID-19 |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/13/2/187 |
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