Towards a method for forecasting earthquakes in Iceland using changes in groundwater chemistry
Abstract An advance has been made towards a method for forecasting earthquakes several months before they occur. The method relies on changes of groundwater chemistry as earthquake precursors. In a study published in 2014, we showed that changes of groundwater chemistry occurred prior to and were as...
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| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2024-11-01
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| Series: | Communications Earth & Environment |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01852-3 |
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| author | Alasdair Skelton Erik Sturkell Carl-Magnus Mörth Gabrielle Stockmann Sigurjón Jónsson Andri Stefansson Lillemor Liljedahl‐Claesson Niklas Wästeby Margareta Andrén Elin Tollefsen Jóhann Gunnarsson Robin Nicole Keller Halldór Geirsson Hreinn Hjartarson Ingrid Kockum |
| author_facet | Alasdair Skelton Erik Sturkell Carl-Magnus Mörth Gabrielle Stockmann Sigurjón Jónsson Andri Stefansson Lillemor Liljedahl‐Claesson Niklas Wästeby Margareta Andrén Elin Tollefsen Jóhann Gunnarsson Robin Nicole Keller Halldór Geirsson Hreinn Hjartarson Ingrid Kockum |
| author_sort | Alasdair Skelton |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract An advance has been made towards a method for forecasting earthquakes several months before they occur. The method relies on changes of groundwater chemistry as earthquake precursors. In a study published in 2014, we showed that changes of groundwater chemistry occurred prior to and were associated with two earthquakes of magnitude 5 and higher, which affected northern Iceland in 2012 and 2013. Here we test the hypothesis that similar or larger earthquakes could have been forecast in the following decade (i.e. 2014–2023) based on our published findings. We found that we could have forecast one of the three greater than magnitude 5 earthquakes that occurred. Noting that changes of groundwater chemistry were oscillatory, we infer expansion and contraction of the groundwater source region caused by coupled crustal dilation and fracture mineralisation associated with the stress build-up before earthquakes. We conclude by proposing how our approach could be implemented elsewhere. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-941266ddcdab46509693a6eac8d0bdf8 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2662-4435 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-11-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Communications Earth & Environment |
| spelling | doaj-art-941266ddcdab46509693a6eac8d0bdf82025-08-20T02:49:59ZengNature PortfolioCommunications Earth & Environment2662-44352024-11-01511810.1038/s43247-024-01852-3Towards a method for forecasting earthquakes in Iceland using changes in groundwater chemistryAlasdair Skelton0Erik Sturkell1Carl-Magnus Mörth2Gabrielle Stockmann3Sigurjón Jónsson4Andri Stefansson5Lillemor Liljedahl‐Claesson6Niklas Wästeby7Margareta Andrén8Elin Tollefsen9Jóhann Gunnarsson Robin10Nicole Keller11Halldór Geirsson12Hreinn Hjartarson13Ingrid Kockum14Department of Geological Sciences, Stockholm UniversityDepartment of Earth Sciences, University of GothenburgDepartment of Geological Sciences, Stockholm UniversityInstitute of Earth Sciences, University of IcelandKing Abdullah University of Science and TechnologyInstitute of Earth Sciences, University of IcelandDHI SwedenDepartment of Geological Sciences, Stockholm UniversityDepartment of Geological Sciences, Stockholm UniversityDepartment of Geological Sciences, Stockholm UniversityInstitute of Earth Sciences, University of IcelandEnvironment Agency of IcelandInstitute of Earth Sciences, University of IcelandNational Power Company of IcelandDepartment of Neuroscience, Karolinska InstitutetAbstract An advance has been made towards a method for forecasting earthquakes several months before they occur. The method relies on changes of groundwater chemistry as earthquake precursors. In a study published in 2014, we showed that changes of groundwater chemistry occurred prior to and were associated with two earthquakes of magnitude 5 and higher, which affected northern Iceland in 2012 and 2013. Here we test the hypothesis that similar or larger earthquakes could have been forecast in the following decade (i.e. 2014–2023) based on our published findings. We found that we could have forecast one of the three greater than magnitude 5 earthquakes that occurred. Noting that changes of groundwater chemistry were oscillatory, we infer expansion and contraction of the groundwater source region caused by coupled crustal dilation and fracture mineralisation associated with the stress build-up before earthquakes. We conclude by proposing how our approach could be implemented elsewhere.https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01852-3 |
| spellingShingle | Alasdair Skelton Erik Sturkell Carl-Magnus Mörth Gabrielle Stockmann Sigurjón Jónsson Andri Stefansson Lillemor Liljedahl‐Claesson Niklas Wästeby Margareta Andrén Elin Tollefsen Jóhann Gunnarsson Robin Nicole Keller Halldór Geirsson Hreinn Hjartarson Ingrid Kockum Towards a method for forecasting earthquakes in Iceland using changes in groundwater chemistry Communications Earth & Environment |
| title | Towards a method for forecasting earthquakes in Iceland using changes in groundwater chemistry |
| title_full | Towards a method for forecasting earthquakes in Iceland using changes in groundwater chemistry |
| title_fullStr | Towards a method for forecasting earthquakes in Iceland using changes in groundwater chemistry |
| title_full_unstemmed | Towards a method for forecasting earthquakes in Iceland using changes in groundwater chemistry |
| title_short | Towards a method for forecasting earthquakes in Iceland using changes in groundwater chemistry |
| title_sort | towards a method for forecasting earthquakes in iceland using changes in groundwater chemistry |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01852-3 |
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