Identifying outbreak risk factors through case-controls comparisons
Abstract Outbreaks are typically investigated using approaches that aim to identify place- and context-dependent causative factors. As the focus is on understanding the basis of a specific outbreak, the resulting narratives are rarely suitable for forecasting risk or developing generalizable predict...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-05-01
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| Series: | Communications Medicine |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43856-025-00916-5 |
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| _version_ | 1849704184684740608 |
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| author | Nina H. Fefferman Michael J. Blum Lydia Bourouiba Nathaniel L. Gibson Qiang He Debra L. Miller Monica Papeș Dana K. Pasquale Connor Verheyen Sadie J. Ryan |
| author_facet | Nina H. Fefferman Michael J. Blum Lydia Bourouiba Nathaniel L. Gibson Qiang He Debra L. Miller Monica Papeș Dana K. Pasquale Connor Verheyen Sadie J. Ryan |
| author_sort | Nina H. Fefferman |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Outbreaks are typically investigated using approaches that aim to identify place- and context-dependent causative factors. As the focus is on understanding the basis of a specific outbreak, the resulting narratives are rarely suitable for forecasting risk or developing generalizable predictive and preventative measures. This Perspective article proposes applying a case-control framework as an outbreak epidemiological study design to promote evidence-based decision-making for prevention and response to outbreaks. The approach involves identifying counterfactuals, with case-control comparisons drawn to test hypotheses about conditions that manifest outbreaks. First, a framework is described for iterative multidisciplinary interrogation to elucidate and identify minimally sufficient sets of factors that lead to disease outbreaks. Next, example case-control comparison frameworks are discussed, centered on pathogen(s), influential contributor(s), or landscape(s), illustrated with examples focused on pathogen transmission. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-93c8afc44a454713a9bbe4eb3f7d1ca8 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2730-664X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-05-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Communications Medicine |
| spelling | doaj-art-93c8afc44a454713a9bbe4eb3f7d1ca82025-08-20T03:16:51ZengNature PortfolioCommunications Medicine2730-664X2025-05-01511510.1038/s43856-025-00916-5Identifying outbreak risk factors through case-controls comparisonsNina H. Fefferman0Michael J. Blum1Lydia Bourouiba2Nathaniel L. Gibson3Qiang He4Debra L. Miller5Monica Papeș6Dana K. Pasquale7Connor Verheyen8Sadie J. Ryan9Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of TennesseeDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of TennesseeThe Fluid Dynamics of Disease Transmission Laboratory, Fluids and Health Network, Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of TennesseeDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of TennesseeOne Health Initiative, School of Natural Resources and College of Veterinary Medicine, University of TennesseeDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of TennesseeDuke Department of Population Health Sciences, Duke University School of MedicineThe Fluid Dynamics of Disease Transmission Laboratory, Fluids and Health Network, Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyDepartment of Geography, Quantitative Disease Ecology and Conservation (QDEC) Lab, University of FloridaAbstract Outbreaks are typically investigated using approaches that aim to identify place- and context-dependent causative factors. As the focus is on understanding the basis of a specific outbreak, the resulting narratives are rarely suitable for forecasting risk or developing generalizable predictive and preventative measures. This Perspective article proposes applying a case-control framework as an outbreak epidemiological study design to promote evidence-based decision-making for prevention and response to outbreaks. The approach involves identifying counterfactuals, with case-control comparisons drawn to test hypotheses about conditions that manifest outbreaks. First, a framework is described for iterative multidisciplinary interrogation to elucidate and identify minimally sufficient sets of factors that lead to disease outbreaks. Next, example case-control comparison frameworks are discussed, centered on pathogen(s), influential contributor(s), or landscape(s), illustrated with examples focused on pathogen transmission.https://doi.org/10.1038/s43856-025-00916-5 |
| spellingShingle | Nina H. Fefferman Michael J. Blum Lydia Bourouiba Nathaniel L. Gibson Qiang He Debra L. Miller Monica Papeș Dana K. Pasquale Connor Verheyen Sadie J. Ryan Identifying outbreak risk factors through case-controls comparisons Communications Medicine |
| title | Identifying outbreak risk factors through case-controls comparisons |
| title_full | Identifying outbreak risk factors through case-controls comparisons |
| title_fullStr | Identifying outbreak risk factors through case-controls comparisons |
| title_full_unstemmed | Identifying outbreak risk factors through case-controls comparisons |
| title_short | Identifying outbreak risk factors through case-controls comparisons |
| title_sort | identifying outbreak risk factors through case controls comparisons |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43856-025-00916-5 |
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