Identifying outbreak risk factors through case-controls comparisons
Abstract Outbreaks are typically investigated using approaches that aim to identify place- and context-dependent causative factors. As the focus is on understanding the basis of a specific outbreak, the resulting narratives are rarely suitable for forecasting risk or developing generalizable predict...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2025-05-01
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| Series: | Communications Medicine |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43856-025-00916-5 |
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| Summary: | Abstract Outbreaks are typically investigated using approaches that aim to identify place- and context-dependent causative factors. As the focus is on understanding the basis of a specific outbreak, the resulting narratives are rarely suitable for forecasting risk or developing generalizable predictive and preventative measures. This Perspective article proposes applying a case-control framework as an outbreak epidemiological study design to promote evidence-based decision-making for prevention and response to outbreaks. The approach involves identifying counterfactuals, with case-control comparisons drawn to test hypotheses about conditions that manifest outbreaks. First, a framework is described for iterative multidisciplinary interrogation to elucidate and identify minimally sufficient sets of factors that lead to disease outbreaks. Next, example case-control comparison frameworks are discussed, centered on pathogen(s), influential contributor(s), or landscape(s), illustrated with examples focused on pathogen transmission. |
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| ISSN: | 2730-664X |