Beating the Uncertainties: Ensemble Forecasting and Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation in Modern Numerical Weather Prediction
Accurate numerical weather forecasting is of great importance. Due to inadequate observations, our limited understanding of the physical processes of the atmosphere, and the chaotic nature of atmospheric flow, uncertainties always exist in modern numerical weather prediction (NWP). Recent developmen...
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| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2010-01-01
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| Series: | Advances in Meteorology |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2010/432160 |
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| Summary: | Accurate numerical weather forecasting is of great importance. Due to inadequate observations, our limited understanding of the physical processes of the atmosphere, and the chaotic nature of atmospheric flow, uncertainties always exist in modern numerical weather prediction (NWP). Recent developments in ensemble forecasting and ensemble-based data assimilation have proved that there are promising ways to beat the forecast uncertainties in NWP. This paper gives a brief overview of fundamental problems and recent progress associated with ensemble forecasting and ensemble-based data assimilation. The usefulness of these methods in improving high-impact weather forecasting is also discussed. |
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| ISSN: | 1687-9309 1687-9317 |