Estimated stroke risk, yield, and number needed to screen for atrial fibrillation detected through single time screening: a multicountry patient-level meta-analysis of 141,220 screened individuals.
<h4>Background</h4>The precise age distribution and calculated stroke risk of screen-detected atrial fibrillation (AF) is not known. Therefore, it is not possible to determine the number needed to screen (NNS) to identify one treatable new AF case (NNS-Rx) (i.e., Class-1 oral anticoagula...
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Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2019-09-01
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| Series: | PLoS Medicine |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1002903 |
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| author | Nicole Lowres Jake Olivier Tze-Fan Chao Shih-Ann Chen Yi Chen Axel Diederichsen David A Fitzmaurice Juan Jose Gomez-Doblas Joseph Harbison Jeff S Healey F D Richard Hobbs Femke Kaasenbrood William Keen Vivian W Lee Jes S Lindholt Gregory Y H Lip Georges H Mairesse Jonathan Mant Julie W Martin Enrique Martín-Rioboó David D McManus Javier Muñiz Thomas Münzel Juliet Nakamya Lis Neubeck Jessica J Orchard Luis Ángel Pérula de Torres Marco Proietti F Russell Quinn Andrea K Roalfe Roopinder K Sandhu Renate B Schnabel Breda Smyth Apurv Soni Robert Tieleman Jiguang Wang Philipp S Wild Bryan P Yan Ben Freedman |
| author_facet | Nicole Lowres Jake Olivier Tze-Fan Chao Shih-Ann Chen Yi Chen Axel Diederichsen David A Fitzmaurice Juan Jose Gomez-Doblas Joseph Harbison Jeff S Healey F D Richard Hobbs Femke Kaasenbrood William Keen Vivian W Lee Jes S Lindholt Gregory Y H Lip Georges H Mairesse Jonathan Mant Julie W Martin Enrique Martín-Rioboó David D McManus Javier Muñiz Thomas Münzel Juliet Nakamya Lis Neubeck Jessica J Orchard Luis Ángel Pérula de Torres Marco Proietti F Russell Quinn Andrea K Roalfe Roopinder K Sandhu Renate B Schnabel Breda Smyth Apurv Soni Robert Tieleman Jiguang Wang Philipp S Wild Bryan P Yan Ben Freedman |
| author_sort | Nicole Lowres |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <h4>Background</h4>The precise age distribution and calculated stroke risk of screen-detected atrial fibrillation (AF) is not known. Therefore, it is not possible to determine the number needed to screen (NNS) to identify one treatable new AF case (NNS-Rx) (i.e., Class-1 oral anticoagulation [OAC] treatment recommendation) in each age stratum. If the NNS-Rx is known for each age stratum, precise cost-effectiveness and sensitivity simulations can be performed based on the age distribution of the population/region to be screened. Such calculations are required by national authorities and organisations responsible for health system budgets to determine the best age cutoffs for screening programs and decide whether programs of screening should be funded. Therefore, we aimed to determine the exact yield and calculated stroke-risk profile of screen-detected AF and NNS-Rx in 5-year age strata.<h4>Methods and findings</h4>A systematic review of Medline, Pubmed, and Embase was performed (January 2007 to February 2018), and AF-SCREEN international collaboration members were contacted to identify additional studies. Twenty-four eligible studies were identified that performed a single time point screen for AF in a general ambulant population, including people ≥65 years. Authors from eligible studies were invited to collaborate and share patient-level data. Statistical analysis was performed using random effects logistic regression for AF detection rate, and Poisson regression modelling for CHA2DS2-VASc scores. Nineteen studies (14 countries from a mix of low- to middle- and high-income countries) collaborated, with 141,220 participants screened and 1,539 new AF cases. Pooled yield of screening was greater in males across all age strata. The age/sex-adjusted detection rate for screen-detected AF in ≥65-year-olds was 1.44% (95% CI, 1.13%-1.82%) and 0.41% (95% CI, 0.31%-0.53%) for <65-year-olds. New AF detection rate increased progressively with age from 0.34% (<60 years) to 2.73% (≥85 years). Neither the choice of screening methodology or device, the geographical region, nor the screening setting influenced the detection rate of AF. Mean CHA2DS2-VASc scores (n = 1,369) increased with age from 1.1 (<60 years) to 3.9 (≥85 years); 72% of ≥65 years had ≥1 additional stroke risk factor other than age/sex. All new AF ≥75 years and 66% between 65 and 74 years had a Class-1 OAC recommendation. The NNS-Rx is 83 for ≥65 years, 926 for 60-64 years; and 1,089 for <60 years. The main limitation of this study is there are insufficient data on sociodemographic variables of the populations and possible ascertainment biases to explain the variance in the samples.<h4>Conclusions</h4>People with screen-detected AF are at elevated calculated stroke risk: above age 65, the majority have a Class-1 OAC recommendation for stroke prevention, and >70% have ≥1 additional stroke risk factor other than age/sex. Our data, based on the largest number of screen-detected AF collected to date, show the precise relationship between yield and estimated stroke risk profile with age, and strong dependence for NNS-RX on the age distribution of the population to be screened: essential information for precise cost-effectiveness calculations. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-930f5530ca2c41ff9cdd4cff1faf354a |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1549-1277 1549-1676 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2019-09-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS Medicine |
| spelling | doaj-art-930f5530ca2c41ff9cdd4cff1faf354a2025-08-20T03:46:20ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS Medicine1549-12771549-16762019-09-01169e100290310.1371/journal.pmed.1002903Estimated stroke risk, yield, and number needed to screen for atrial fibrillation detected through single time screening: a multicountry patient-level meta-analysis of 141,220 screened individuals.Nicole LowresJake OlivierTze-Fan ChaoShih-Ann ChenYi ChenAxel DiederichsenDavid A FitzmauriceJuan Jose Gomez-DoblasJoseph HarbisonJeff S HealeyF D Richard HobbsFemke KaasenbroodWilliam KeenVivian W LeeJes S LindholtGregory Y H LipGeorges H MairesseJonathan MantJulie W MartinEnrique Martín-RioboóDavid D McManusJavier MuñizThomas MünzelJuliet NakamyaLis NeubeckJessica J OrchardLuis Ángel Pérula de TorresMarco ProiettiF Russell QuinnAndrea K RoalfeRoopinder K SandhuRenate B SchnabelBreda SmythApurv SoniRobert TielemanJiguang WangPhilipp S WildBryan P YanBen Freedman<h4>Background</h4>The precise age distribution and calculated stroke risk of screen-detected atrial fibrillation (AF) is not known. Therefore, it is not possible to determine the number needed to screen (NNS) to identify one treatable new AF case (NNS-Rx) (i.e., Class-1 oral anticoagulation [OAC] treatment recommendation) in each age stratum. If the NNS-Rx is known for each age stratum, precise cost-effectiveness and sensitivity simulations can be performed based on the age distribution of the population/region to be screened. Such calculations are required by national authorities and organisations responsible for health system budgets to determine the best age cutoffs for screening programs and decide whether programs of screening should be funded. Therefore, we aimed to determine the exact yield and calculated stroke-risk profile of screen-detected AF and NNS-Rx in 5-year age strata.<h4>Methods and findings</h4>A systematic review of Medline, Pubmed, and Embase was performed (January 2007 to February 2018), and AF-SCREEN international collaboration members were contacted to identify additional studies. Twenty-four eligible studies were identified that performed a single time point screen for AF in a general ambulant population, including people ≥65 years. Authors from eligible studies were invited to collaborate and share patient-level data. Statistical analysis was performed using random effects logistic regression for AF detection rate, and Poisson regression modelling for CHA2DS2-VASc scores. Nineteen studies (14 countries from a mix of low- to middle- and high-income countries) collaborated, with 141,220 participants screened and 1,539 new AF cases. Pooled yield of screening was greater in males across all age strata. The age/sex-adjusted detection rate for screen-detected AF in ≥65-year-olds was 1.44% (95% CI, 1.13%-1.82%) and 0.41% (95% CI, 0.31%-0.53%) for <65-year-olds. New AF detection rate increased progressively with age from 0.34% (<60 years) to 2.73% (≥85 years). Neither the choice of screening methodology or device, the geographical region, nor the screening setting influenced the detection rate of AF. Mean CHA2DS2-VASc scores (n = 1,369) increased with age from 1.1 (<60 years) to 3.9 (≥85 years); 72% of ≥65 years had ≥1 additional stroke risk factor other than age/sex. All new AF ≥75 years and 66% between 65 and 74 years had a Class-1 OAC recommendation. The NNS-Rx is 83 for ≥65 years, 926 for 60-64 years; and 1,089 for <60 years. The main limitation of this study is there are insufficient data on sociodemographic variables of the populations and possible ascertainment biases to explain the variance in the samples.<h4>Conclusions</h4>People with screen-detected AF are at elevated calculated stroke risk: above age 65, the majority have a Class-1 OAC recommendation for stroke prevention, and >70% have ≥1 additional stroke risk factor other than age/sex. Our data, based on the largest number of screen-detected AF collected to date, show the precise relationship between yield and estimated stroke risk profile with age, and strong dependence for NNS-RX on the age distribution of the population to be screened: essential information for precise cost-effectiveness calculations.https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1002903 |
| spellingShingle | Nicole Lowres Jake Olivier Tze-Fan Chao Shih-Ann Chen Yi Chen Axel Diederichsen David A Fitzmaurice Juan Jose Gomez-Doblas Joseph Harbison Jeff S Healey F D Richard Hobbs Femke Kaasenbrood William Keen Vivian W Lee Jes S Lindholt Gregory Y H Lip Georges H Mairesse Jonathan Mant Julie W Martin Enrique Martín-Rioboó David D McManus Javier Muñiz Thomas Münzel Juliet Nakamya Lis Neubeck Jessica J Orchard Luis Ángel Pérula de Torres Marco Proietti F Russell Quinn Andrea K Roalfe Roopinder K Sandhu Renate B Schnabel Breda Smyth Apurv Soni Robert Tieleman Jiguang Wang Philipp S Wild Bryan P Yan Ben Freedman Estimated stroke risk, yield, and number needed to screen for atrial fibrillation detected through single time screening: a multicountry patient-level meta-analysis of 141,220 screened individuals. PLoS Medicine |
| title | Estimated stroke risk, yield, and number needed to screen for atrial fibrillation detected through single time screening: a multicountry patient-level meta-analysis of 141,220 screened individuals. |
| title_full | Estimated stroke risk, yield, and number needed to screen for atrial fibrillation detected through single time screening: a multicountry patient-level meta-analysis of 141,220 screened individuals. |
| title_fullStr | Estimated stroke risk, yield, and number needed to screen for atrial fibrillation detected through single time screening: a multicountry patient-level meta-analysis of 141,220 screened individuals. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimated stroke risk, yield, and number needed to screen for atrial fibrillation detected through single time screening: a multicountry patient-level meta-analysis of 141,220 screened individuals. |
| title_short | Estimated stroke risk, yield, and number needed to screen for atrial fibrillation detected through single time screening: a multicountry patient-level meta-analysis of 141,220 screened individuals. |
| title_sort | estimated stroke risk yield and number needed to screen for atrial fibrillation detected through single time screening a multicountry patient level meta analysis of 141 220 screened individuals |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1002903 |
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