The Projected Effects of Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of <i>Planococcus minor</i> Based on Ensemble Species Distribution Models
<i>Planococcus minor</i> is an invasive pest of significant economic importance that has attracted international attention. Predicting the potential geographic distribution of <i>P. minor</i> under climate change is crucial to developing effective prevention and control strat...
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MDPI AG
2025-05-01
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| author | Taohua Xiong Shuping Wang Fenfen Kang Jingyuan Liu Yujia Qin |
| author_facet | Taohua Xiong Shuping Wang Fenfen Kang Jingyuan Liu Yujia Qin |
| author_sort | Taohua Xiong |
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| description | <i>Planococcus minor</i> is an invasive pest of significant economic importance that has attracted international attention. Predicting the potential geographic distribution of <i>P. minor</i> under climate change is crucial to developing effective prevention and control strategies for safeguarding agricultural productivity. In this study, we selected four species distribution models (GBM, GLM, MARS, MAXENT) and utilized the Biomod2 package to construct an ensemble model for predicting the suitable habitats of <i>P. minor</i> under the averaged climate conditions of 1970–2000 and 2041–2060 (2050s), including a low-emission pathway (SSP1-2.6) and a high-emission pathway (SSP5-8.5). Among the 19 bioclimatic variables considered, precipitation of the wettest quarter and temperature seasonality were identified as the most influential factors affecting the distribution of <i>P. minor</i>. Under the averaged climate conditions of 1970–2000, suitable habitats for <i>P. minor</i> are mainly distributed in tropical and subtropical regions worldwide. In China, highly suitable zones are concentrated in Yunnan, Guangxi, Guangdong, Hainan, and Taiwan. In the future, the global range of <i>P. minor</i> is projected to expand, with some highly suitable areas transitioning toward medium and low suitability. Under the high-emission pathway (SSP5-8.5) scenario, suitable habitats in China are anticipated to exhibit a pronounced trend of inland expansion. Establishing an ensemble model to predict the potential geographic distribution of <i>P. minor</i> will facilitate the assessment of invasion and spread risks, thereby providing a scientific foundation for developing targeted prevention and monitoring strategies for relevant regions. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-9303457f68de41c19871769381f3149f |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2073-4395 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-05-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
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| series | Agronomy |
| spelling | doaj-art-9303457f68de41c19871769381f3149f2025-08-20T02:33:36ZengMDPI AGAgronomy2073-43952025-05-01155116510.3390/agronomy15051165The Projected Effects of Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of <i>Planococcus minor</i> Based on Ensemble Species Distribution ModelsTaohua Xiong0Shuping Wang1Fenfen Kang2Jingyuan Liu3Yujia Qin4State Key Laboratory of Agricultural and Forestry Biosecurity, MARA Key Lab of Surveillance and Management for Plant Quarantine Pests, College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, ChinaTechnical Center for Animal, Plant and Food Inspection and Quarantine of Shanghai Customs, Shanghai 201210, ChinaThe Animal, Plant & Foodstuff Inspection Center of Tianjin Customs, Tianjin 300461, ChinaTechnical Center for Animal, Plant and Food Inspection and Quarantine of Shanghai Customs, Shanghai 201210, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Agricultural and Forestry Biosecurity, MARA Key Lab of Surveillance and Management for Plant Quarantine Pests, College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China<i>Planococcus minor</i> is an invasive pest of significant economic importance that has attracted international attention. Predicting the potential geographic distribution of <i>P. minor</i> under climate change is crucial to developing effective prevention and control strategies for safeguarding agricultural productivity. In this study, we selected four species distribution models (GBM, GLM, MARS, MAXENT) and utilized the Biomod2 package to construct an ensemble model for predicting the suitable habitats of <i>P. minor</i> under the averaged climate conditions of 1970–2000 and 2041–2060 (2050s), including a low-emission pathway (SSP1-2.6) and a high-emission pathway (SSP5-8.5). Among the 19 bioclimatic variables considered, precipitation of the wettest quarter and temperature seasonality were identified as the most influential factors affecting the distribution of <i>P. minor</i>. Under the averaged climate conditions of 1970–2000, suitable habitats for <i>P. minor</i> are mainly distributed in tropical and subtropical regions worldwide. In China, highly suitable zones are concentrated in Yunnan, Guangxi, Guangdong, Hainan, and Taiwan. In the future, the global range of <i>P. minor</i> is projected to expand, with some highly suitable areas transitioning toward medium and low suitability. Under the high-emission pathway (SSP5-8.5) scenario, suitable habitats in China are anticipated to exhibit a pronounced trend of inland expansion. Establishing an ensemble model to predict the potential geographic distribution of <i>P. minor</i> will facilitate the assessment of invasion and spread risks, thereby providing a scientific foundation for developing targeted prevention and monitoring strategies for relevant regions.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/15/5/1165passionvine mealybuginvasive speciespest managementfuture climate scenariosensemble species distribution models |
| spellingShingle | Taohua Xiong Shuping Wang Fenfen Kang Jingyuan Liu Yujia Qin The Projected Effects of Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of <i>Planococcus minor</i> Based on Ensemble Species Distribution Models Agronomy passionvine mealybug invasive species pest management future climate scenarios ensemble species distribution models |
| title | The Projected Effects of Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of <i>Planococcus minor</i> Based on Ensemble Species Distribution Models |
| title_full | The Projected Effects of Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of <i>Planococcus minor</i> Based on Ensemble Species Distribution Models |
| title_fullStr | The Projected Effects of Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of <i>Planococcus minor</i> Based on Ensemble Species Distribution Models |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Projected Effects of Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of <i>Planococcus minor</i> Based on Ensemble Species Distribution Models |
| title_short | The Projected Effects of Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of <i>Planococcus minor</i> Based on Ensemble Species Distribution Models |
| title_sort | projected effects of climate change on the potential distribution of i planococcus minor i based on ensemble species distribution models |
| topic | passionvine mealybug invasive species pest management future climate scenarios ensemble species distribution models |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/15/5/1165 |
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