Public debt management in Serbia during transition, great recession and Covid-19 pandemic
This paper examines the nonlinear asymmetric behavior of the public debt/GDP ratio in Serbia in the first two decades of economic transition following the political and market reforms initiated at the beginning of the twenty-first century. Using quarterly data for the public debt/GDP ratio, a two-re...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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University in Belgrade
2024-11-01
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| Series: | Serbian Journal of Management |
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| Online Access: | https://aseestant.ceon.rs/index.php/sjm/article/view/52982/26448 |
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| author | Vladimir Andrić |
| author_facet | Vladimir Andrić |
| author_sort | Vladimir Andrić |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This paper examines the nonlinear asymmetric behavior of the public debt/GDP ratio in Serbia in the first two decades of economic transition following the political and market reforms initiated at the beginning of the twenty-first century. Using quarterly data for the public debt/GDP ratio, a two-regime self-exciting threshold autoregressive threshold (SETAR) model of order one identifies a public debt/GDP ratio threshold of 66.2% above which fiscal policymakers in Serbia take corrective action in the form of increased fiscal prudence. The estimated public debt/GDP ratio threshold roughly corresponds to a 60% threshold from the Maastricht fiscal criteria and shows how fiscal policymakers in Serbia systematically ignore the 45% public debt/GDP limit set in the national fiscal rules. Such fiscal policy behavior could jeopardize the credibility of fiscal institutions in Serbia and have a negative impact on fiscal discipline and the likelihood of sovereign default. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-92d5486a71f74a2a9640c0b234887030 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1452-4864 2217-7159 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-11-01 |
| publisher | University in Belgrade |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Serbian Journal of Management |
| spelling | doaj-art-92d5486a71f74a2a9640c0b2348870302025-08-20T02:21:21ZengUniversity in BelgradeSerbian Journal of Management1452-48642217-71592024-11-01192485499Public debt management in Serbia during transition, great recession and Covid-19 pandemic Vladimir Andrić0Institute of Economic Sciences, Zmaj Jovina 12, 11000 Belgrade, SerbiaThis paper examines the nonlinear asymmetric behavior of the public debt/GDP ratio in Serbia in the first two decades of economic transition following the political and market reforms initiated at the beginning of the twenty-first century. Using quarterly data for the public debt/GDP ratio, a two-regime self-exciting threshold autoregressive threshold (SETAR) model of order one identifies a public debt/GDP ratio threshold of 66.2% above which fiscal policymakers in Serbia take corrective action in the form of increased fiscal prudence. The estimated public debt/GDP ratio threshold roughly corresponds to a 60% threshold from the Maastricht fiscal criteria and shows how fiscal policymakers in Serbia systematically ignore the 45% public debt/GDP limit set in the national fiscal rules. Such fiscal policy behavior could jeopardize the credibility of fiscal institutions in Serbia and have a negative impact on fiscal discipline and the likelihood of sovereign default.https://aseestant.ceon.rs/index.php/sjm/article/view/52982/26448public debt managementgreat recessioncovid-19setar modelserbia |
| spellingShingle | Vladimir Andrić Public debt management in Serbia during transition, great recession and Covid-19 pandemic Serbian Journal of Management public debt management great recession covid-19 setar model serbia |
| title | Public debt management in Serbia during transition, great recession and Covid-19 pandemic |
| title_full | Public debt management in Serbia during transition, great recession and Covid-19 pandemic |
| title_fullStr | Public debt management in Serbia during transition, great recession and Covid-19 pandemic |
| title_full_unstemmed | Public debt management in Serbia during transition, great recession and Covid-19 pandemic |
| title_short | Public debt management in Serbia during transition, great recession and Covid-19 pandemic |
| title_sort | public debt management in serbia during transition great recession and covid 19 pandemic |
| topic | public debt management great recession covid-19 setar model serbia |
| url | https://aseestant.ceon.rs/index.php/sjm/article/view/52982/26448 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT vladimirandric publicdebtmanagementinserbiaduringtransitiongreatrecessionandcovid19pandemic |