Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Bank Loan Restructuring: Empirical Evidence from Industry-Level Loan Distribution in China

In recent years, there has been significant interest in economic policy uncertainty and its economic consequences. Fluctuations in economic policies can introduce instability into business operations, resulting in elevated credit default risks. It is important to investigate whether Chinese commerci...

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Main Authors: Chenxi Wang, Ran Duan
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: SAGE Publishing 2025-01-01
Series:SAGE Open
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1177/21582440241310313
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author Chenxi Wang
Ran Duan
author_facet Chenxi Wang
Ran Duan
author_sort Chenxi Wang
collection DOAJ
description In recent years, there has been significant interest in economic policy uncertainty and its economic consequences. Fluctuations in economic policies can introduce instability into business operations, resulting in elevated credit default risks. It is important to investigate whether Chinese commercial banks take economic policy uncertainty into account and adopt a more diversified loan structure to mitigate the risks associated with policy changes. In this study, we investigate the impact of economic policy uncertainty on loan concentration within a sample of Chinese commercial banks from 2007 to 2020. Using a panel dataset of 311 banks, we employ fixed-effects regression models and conduct robustness checks with instrumental variables and dynamic panel regressions to address endogeneity concerns. Our findings reveal a significant negative correlation between economic policy uncertainty and the loan concentration of banks. These results hold strong even when subjected to rigorous testing for endogeneity using instrumental variables and dynamic panel regressions. Furthermore, we also find that the negative impact of economic policy uncertainty on loan concentration is more pronounced in regional banks, small-sized banks, and banks with lower market shares. Moreover, the mechanism analysis demonstrates that operational risk serves as a vital channel through which economic policy uncertainty affects loan concentration. By shedding light on how macroeconomic policies impact the financial behavior of commercial banks, we provide new empirical evidence and valuable insights into the dynamics of bank loan structures. In light of our findings, we propose policy recommendations to ensure economic policy stability, encourage the diversification of loan portfolios, expand the regulatory scope on loan concentration, and foster improvements in the regulatory system.
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spelling doaj-art-92542b5a2d3d4f59bf7464f6f4ecc6b02025-08-20T02:43:58ZengSAGE PublishingSAGE Open2158-24402025-01-011510.1177/21582440241310313Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Bank Loan Restructuring: Empirical Evidence from Industry-Level Loan Distribution in ChinaChenxi Wang0Ran Duan1Guizhou Normal University, Guiyang, ChinaShantou University, Guangdong, ChinaIn recent years, there has been significant interest in economic policy uncertainty and its economic consequences. Fluctuations in economic policies can introduce instability into business operations, resulting in elevated credit default risks. It is important to investigate whether Chinese commercial banks take economic policy uncertainty into account and adopt a more diversified loan structure to mitigate the risks associated with policy changes. In this study, we investigate the impact of economic policy uncertainty on loan concentration within a sample of Chinese commercial banks from 2007 to 2020. Using a panel dataset of 311 banks, we employ fixed-effects regression models and conduct robustness checks with instrumental variables and dynamic panel regressions to address endogeneity concerns. Our findings reveal a significant negative correlation between economic policy uncertainty and the loan concentration of banks. These results hold strong even when subjected to rigorous testing for endogeneity using instrumental variables and dynamic panel regressions. Furthermore, we also find that the negative impact of economic policy uncertainty on loan concentration is more pronounced in regional banks, small-sized banks, and banks with lower market shares. Moreover, the mechanism analysis demonstrates that operational risk serves as a vital channel through which economic policy uncertainty affects loan concentration. By shedding light on how macroeconomic policies impact the financial behavior of commercial banks, we provide new empirical evidence and valuable insights into the dynamics of bank loan structures. In light of our findings, we propose policy recommendations to ensure economic policy stability, encourage the diversification of loan portfolios, expand the regulatory scope on loan concentration, and foster improvements in the regulatory system.https://doi.org/10.1177/21582440241310313
spellingShingle Chenxi Wang
Ran Duan
Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Bank Loan Restructuring: Empirical Evidence from Industry-Level Loan Distribution in China
SAGE Open
title Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Bank Loan Restructuring: Empirical Evidence from Industry-Level Loan Distribution in China
title_full Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Bank Loan Restructuring: Empirical Evidence from Industry-Level Loan Distribution in China
title_fullStr Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Bank Loan Restructuring: Empirical Evidence from Industry-Level Loan Distribution in China
title_full_unstemmed Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Bank Loan Restructuring: Empirical Evidence from Industry-Level Loan Distribution in China
title_short Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Bank Loan Restructuring: Empirical Evidence from Industry-Level Loan Distribution in China
title_sort impact of economic policy uncertainty on bank loan restructuring empirical evidence from industry level loan distribution in china
url https://doi.org/10.1177/21582440241310313
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AT randuan impactofeconomicpolicyuncertaintyonbankloanrestructuringempiricalevidencefromindustrylevelloandistributioninchina