An NARDL assessment of the symmetric and asymmetric pass-through effects of global oil price shocks on food prices in Hong Kong
Abstract This research examines the association between global oil prices and food prices, focusing on both symmetric and asymmetric perspectives, with a particular focus on the Hong Kong context. The context has a unique reliance on imports, and highly integrated global market exposure requires tho...
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| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
BMC
2025-07-01
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| Series: | Agriculture & Food Security |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s40066-025-00541-4 |
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| Summary: | Abstract This research examines the association between global oil prices and food prices, focusing on both symmetric and asymmetric perspectives, with a particular focus on the Hong Kong context. The context has a unique reliance on imports, and highly integrated global market exposure requires thorough analysis. Using linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and nonlinear (NARDL) approaches, both short and long-run pass-through effects of oil price shocks on domestic food prices from 1990 to 2023 were examined. The results show that short-term oil pricing fluctuations do not significantly affect and decrease competitive pricing strategies and long-term contact. Conversely, in the long run, positive oil price shocks significantly increase food prices, whereas negative shocks yield a significant decrease. Importantly, the magnitudes of these effects are not equal, showing the asymmetric nature of the adjustment process. Additionally, global food prices and interest rates significantly influence local food prices. The findings highlight the need for diversified import strategies, efficient logistics, and price stabilization measures to protect against global market volatility and ensure Hong Kong’s food security and economic stability. |
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| ISSN: | 2048-7010 |