Exploring the Impact of Improved Maize Seeds on Productivity of Tanzanian Family Farms: A Maize Seed Stochastic Simulation (MaizeSim) Approach
Investment in modern agricultural practices (MAPs) is crucial for improving crop productivity and household food availability in developing countries like Tanzania, where agriculture forms the backbone of the economy. This study assesses the impact of improved maize seeds on productivity across Tanz...
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2025-05-01
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| author | Ibrahim L. Kadigi Eliaza Mkuna Stefan Sieber |
| author_facet | Ibrahim L. Kadigi Eliaza Mkuna Stefan Sieber |
| author_sort | Ibrahim L. Kadigi |
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| description | Investment in modern agricultural practices (MAPs) is crucial for improving crop productivity and household food availability in developing countries like Tanzania, where agriculture forms the backbone of the economy. This study assesses the impact of improved maize seeds on productivity across Tanzania’s agroecological zones using data from the Tanzanian National Panel Survey (NPS) Wave 5. A stochastic simulation model (a non-parametric model, “MaizeSim”) was employed to account for the inherent variability and uncertainty considerations in maize yields, offering a more accurate representation of outcomes for both improved seed users and non-users. The results reveal that farmers who used improved seeds had a 33% probability of achieving yields above 2 t/ha, compared to only 11% for those using local varieties. Conversely, non-users faced a 65% probability of harvesting below 1 t/ha, while this probability dropped to 38% for improved seed users. Regionally, the highest productivity gains were observed in the Central, Southern Highlands, and Northern Highlands zones, whereas the Eastern Coastal, Southern, and Lake zones experienced minimal benefits. The findings underscore the critical importance of encouraging the adoption of improved seed varieties as a pathway to enhance maize productivity, particularly in regions with favorable agroecological conditions. This study provides valuable insights for the development of the Tanzanian Seed Sector Development Strategy 2030, advocating for policies that promote increased investment in improved maize seeds. The results suggest that sustained application of these seeds, alongside complementary interventions such as agronomic training and improved access to inputs, is essential for improving the productivity and food availability of Tanzanian smallholder farmers. By addressing regional disparities and promoting tailored seed varieties, this strategy could significantly enhance the resilience and productivity of the country’s maize sector. |
| format | Article |
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| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2073-4395 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-05-01 |
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| series | Agronomy |
| spelling | doaj-art-913d140f5bcf4c618d14aea7e1a29a562025-08-20T02:33:36ZengMDPI AGAgronomy2073-43952025-05-01155116710.3390/agronomy15051167Exploring the Impact of Improved Maize Seeds on Productivity of Tanzanian Family Farms: A Maize Seed Stochastic Simulation (MaizeSim) ApproachIbrahim L. Kadigi0Eliaza Mkuna1Stefan Sieber2Department of Business Management, College of Humanities and Business Studies, Mbeya University of Science and Technology, Mbeya P.O. Box 131, TanzaniaDepartment of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, Mzumbe University, Morogoro P.O. Box 5, TanzaniaLeibniz-Zentrum fur Agrarlandschaftsforschung (ZALF e. V.), 15374 Müncheberg, GermanyInvestment in modern agricultural practices (MAPs) is crucial for improving crop productivity and household food availability in developing countries like Tanzania, where agriculture forms the backbone of the economy. This study assesses the impact of improved maize seeds on productivity across Tanzania’s agroecological zones using data from the Tanzanian National Panel Survey (NPS) Wave 5. A stochastic simulation model (a non-parametric model, “MaizeSim”) was employed to account for the inherent variability and uncertainty considerations in maize yields, offering a more accurate representation of outcomes for both improved seed users and non-users. The results reveal that farmers who used improved seeds had a 33% probability of achieving yields above 2 t/ha, compared to only 11% for those using local varieties. Conversely, non-users faced a 65% probability of harvesting below 1 t/ha, while this probability dropped to 38% for improved seed users. Regionally, the highest productivity gains were observed in the Central, Southern Highlands, and Northern Highlands zones, whereas the Eastern Coastal, Southern, and Lake zones experienced minimal benefits. The findings underscore the critical importance of encouraging the adoption of improved seed varieties as a pathway to enhance maize productivity, particularly in regions with favorable agroecological conditions. This study provides valuable insights for the development of the Tanzanian Seed Sector Development Strategy 2030, advocating for policies that promote increased investment in improved maize seeds. The results suggest that sustained application of these seeds, alongside complementary interventions such as agronomic training and improved access to inputs, is essential for improving the productivity and food availability of Tanzanian smallholder farmers. By addressing regional disparities and promoting tailored seed varieties, this strategy could significantly enhance the resilience and productivity of the country’s maize sector.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/15/5/1167stochastic simulationimproved seedrecycled seedsmaize productivityagroecological zonesTanzanian seed system |
| spellingShingle | Ibrahim L. Kadigi Eliaza Mkuna Stefan Sieber Exploring the Impact of Improved Maize Seeds on Productivity of Tanzanian Family Farms: A Maize Seed Stochastic Simulation (MaizeSim) Approach Agronomy stochastic simulation improved seed recycled seeds maize productivity agroecological zones Tanzanian seed system |
| title | Exploring the Impact of Improved Maize Seeds on Productivity of Tanzanian Family Farms: A Maize Seed Stochastic Simulation (MaizeSim) Approach |
| title_full | Exploring the Impact of Improved Maize Seeds on Productivity of Tanzanian Family Farms: A Maize Seed Stochastic Simulation (MaizeSim) Approach |
| title_fullStr | Exploring the Impact of Improved Maize Seeds on Productivity of Tanzanian Family Farms: A Maize Seed Stochastic Simulation (MaizeSim) Approach |
| title_full_unstemmed | Exploring the Impact of Improved Maize Seeds on Productivity of Tanzanian Family Farms: A Maize Seed Stochastic Simulation (MaizeSim) Approach |
| title_short | Exploring the Impact of Improved Maize Seeds on Productivity of Tanzanian Family Farms: A Maize Seed Stochastic Simulation (MaizeSim) Approach |
| title_sort | exploring the impact of improved maize seeds on productivity of tanzanian family farms a maize seed stochastic simulation maizesim approach |
| topic | stochastic simulation improved seed recycled seeds maize productivity agroecological zones Tanzanian seed system |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/15/5/1167 |
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