The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality in Paraguay: 2020 - 2022

Introduction. Few studies examined the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality in Paraguay. Objective. Quantifying the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on all-cause mortality in Paraguay between 2020 and 2022. Material and Method. A custom Bayesian structural time series analysis wi...

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Main Author: Andreas Schneider
Format: Article
Language:Spanish
Published: Universidad del Pacífico 2024-12-01
Series:Revista Científica Ciencias de la Salud
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Online Access:https://revistascientificas.upacifico.edu.py/index.php/PublicacionesUP_Salud/article/view/650
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author Andreas Schneider
author_facet Andreas Schneider
author_sort Andreas Schneider
collection DOAJ
description Introduction. Few studies examined the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality in Paraguay. Objective. Quantifying the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on all-cause mortality in Paraguay between 2020 and 2022. Material and Method. A custom Bayesian structural time series analysis with autoregressive (AR1) and seasonal components was used to predict counterfactual counts of all-cause mortality and compute excess death. Results. Paraguay reported 122,360 all-cause deaths between 2020-22, compared to an expected 88,988 deaths had the pandemic not occurred, a relative excess mortality of 38%. It is likely that Paraguay undercounted COVID-19 related deaths in the first year of the pandemic. Conclusion. The results presented in this paper extended the knowledge on the impact of COVID-19 on all-cause mortality in the context of Paraguay, being a valuable decision tool for public policy makers. Overall, Paraguay presented good quality of all-cause mortality data, however, high excess mortality should raise concern. Further research is needed to shed light on gender-specific, age-structural or geographical differences and to further identify inequalities.
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spelling doaj-art-913b09bbc3ab4a2388f892de5595f56c2025-08-20T02:43:58ZspaUniversidad del PacíficoRevista Científica Ciencias de la Salud2664-28912024-12-016010710.53732/rccsalud/2024.e6155629The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality in Paraguay: 2020 - 2022Andreas Schneider0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5630-1097Autor independienteIntroduction. Few studies examined the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality in Paraguay. Objective. Quantifying the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on all-cause mortality in Paraguay between 2020 and 2022. Material and Method. A custom Bayesian structural time series analysis with autoregressive (AR1) and seasonal components was used to predict counterfactual counts of all-cause mortality and compute excess death. Results. Paraguay reported 122,360 all-cause deaths between 2020-22, compared to an expected 88,988 deaths had the pandemic not occurred, a relative excess mortality of 38%. It is likely that Paraguay undercounted COVID-19 related deaths in the first year of the pandemic. Conclusion. The results presented in this paper extended the knowledge on the impact of COVID-19 on all-cause mortality in the context of Paraguay, being a valuable decision tool for public policy makers. Overall, Paraguay presented good quality of all-cause mortality data, however, high excess mortality should raise concern. Further research is needed to shed light on gender-specific, age-structural or geographical differences and to further identify inequalities.https://revistascientificas.upacifico.edu.py/index.php/PublicacionesUP_Salud/article/view/650all-cause mortalityexcess mortalitycovid-19paraguay
spellingShingle Andreas Schneider
The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality in Paraguay: 2020 - 2022
Revista Científica Ciencias de la Salud
all-cause mortality
excess mortality
covid-19
paraguay
title The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality in Paraguay: 2020 - 2022
title_full The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality in Paraguay: 2020 - 2022
title_fullStr The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality in Paraguay: 2020 - 2022
title_full_unstemmed The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality in Paraguay: 2020 - 2022
title_short The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality in Paraguay: 2020 - 2022
title_sort impact of the covid 19 pandemic on all cause mortality in paraguay 2020 2022
topic all-cause mortality
excess mortality
covid-19
paraguay
url https://revistascientificas.upacifico.edu.py/index.php/PublicacionesUP_Salud/article/view/650
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