Anticipating climate change-related mobility in Karachi and Ho Chi Minh City: lessons from a hybrid foresight approach
Climate change exacerbates existing risks and vulnerabilities for people globally, and migration is a longstanding adaptation response to climate risk. The mechanisms through which climate change shapes human mobility are complex, however, and gaps in data and knowledge persist. In response to these...
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Cambridge University Press
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Data & Policy |
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| Online Access: | https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S2632324925000021/type/journal_article |
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| author | Aaron Martin Boukje Kistemaker Beth Allen Bryan Jones |
| author_facet | Aaron Martin Boukje Kistemaker Beth Allen Bryan Jones |
| author_sort | Aaron Martin |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate change exacerbates existing risks and vulnerabilities for people globally, and migration is a longstanding adaptation response to climate risk. The mechanisms through which climate change shapes human mobility are complex, however, and gaps in data and knowledge persist. In response to these gaps, the United Nations Development Programme’s (UNDP) Predictive Analytics, Human Mobility, and Urbanization Project employed a hybrid approach that combined predictive analytics with participatory foresight to explore climate change-related mobility in Pakistan and Viet Nam from 2020 to 2050. Focusing on Karachi and Ho Chi Minh City, the project estimated temporal and spatial mobility patterns under different climate change scenarios and evaluated the impact of such in-migration across key social, political, economic, and environmental domains. Findings indicate that net migration into these cities could significantly increase under extreme climate scenarios, highlighting both the complex spatial patterns of population change and the potential for anticipatory policies to mitigate these impacts. While extensive research exists on foresight methods and theory, process reflections are underrepresented. The innovative approach employed within this project offers valuable insights on foresight exercise design choices and their implications for effective stakeholder engagement, as well as the applicability and transferability of insights in support of policymaking. Beyond substantive findings, this paper offers a critical reflection on the methodological alignment of data-driven and participatory foresight with the aim of anticipatory policy ideation, seeking to contribute to the enhanced effectiveness of foresight practices. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-90a4b5370cac4c97b072a76328672474 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2632-3249 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Cambridge University Press |
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| series | Data & Policy |
| spelling | doaj-art-90a4b5370cac4c97b072a763286724742025-02-07T05:56:28ZengCambridge University PressData & Policy2632-32492025-01-01710.1017/dap.2025.2Anticipating climate change-related mobility in Karachi and Ho Chi Minh City: lessons from a hybrid foresight approachAaron Martin0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6595-2745Boukje Kistemaker1Beth Allen2Bryan Jones3Department of Sociology, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USAKing’s College London, Department of War Studies, London, UKSchool of Energy, Construction and Environment, Coventry University, Coventry, UKThe City University of New York, Institute for Demographic Research, Baruch College, New York, NY, USAClimate change exacerbates existing risks and vulnerabilities for people globally, and migration is a longstanding adaptation response to climate risk. The mechanisms through which climate change shapes human mobility are complex, however, and gaps in data and knowledge persist. In response to these gaps, the United Nations Development Programme’s (UNDP) Predictive Analytics, Human Mobility, and Urbanization Project employed a hybrid approach that combined predictive analytics with participatory foresight to explore climate change-related mobility in Pakistan and Viet Nam from 2020 to 2050. Focusing on Karachi and Ho Chi Minh City, the project estimated temporal and spatial mobility patterns under different climate change scenarios and evaluated the impact of such in-migration across key social, political, economic, and environmental domains. Findings indicate that net migration into these cities could significantly increase under extreme climate scenarios, highlighting both the complex spatial patterns of population change and the potential for anticipatory policies to mitigate these impacts. While extensive research exists on foresight methods and theory, process reflections are underrepresented. The innovative approach employed within this project offers valuable insights on foresight exercise design choices and their implications for effective stakeholder engagement, as well as the applicability and transferability of insights in support of policymaking. Beyond substantive findings, this paper offers a critical reflection on the methodological alignment of data-driven and participatory foresight with the aim of anticipatory policy ideation, seeking to contribute to the enhanced effectiveness of foresight practices.https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S2632324925000021/type/journal_articleanticipatory policyclimate changehuman mobilitypredictive analyticsstrategic foresight |
| spellingShingle | Aaron Martin Boukje Kistemaker Beth Allen Bryan Jones Anticipating climate change-related mobility in Karachi and Ho Chi Minh City: lessons from a hybrid foresight approach Data & Policy anticipatory policy climate change human mobility predictive analytics strategic foresight |
| title | Anticipating climate change-related mobility in Karachi and Ho Chi Minh City: lessons from a hybrid foresight approach |
| title_full | Anticipating climate change-related mobility in Karachi and Ho Chi Minh City: lessons from a hybrid foresight approach |
| title_fullStr | Anticipating climate change-related mobility in Karachi and Ho Chi Minh City: lessons from a hybrid foresight approach |
| title_full_unstemmed | Anticipating climate change-related mobility in Karachi and Ho Chi Minh City: lessons from a hybrid foresight approach |
| title_short | Anticipating climate change-related mobility in Karachi and Ho Chi Minh City: lessons from a hybrid foresight approach |
| title_sort | anticipating climate change related mobility in karachi and ho chi minh city lessons from a hybrid foresight approach |
| topic | anticipatory policy climate change human mobility predictive analytics strategic foresight |
| url | https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S2632324925000021/type/journal_article |
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