A novel Compound-Pareto model with applications and reliability peaks above a random threshold value at risk analysis

Abstract This paper aims to model the bimodal and right-skewed aircraft windshield data using a novel compounded-Pareto distribution. The method of maximum likelihood is employed to estimate the unknown model parameters, and the performance of the estimators under finite samples is evaluated through...

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Main Authors: Mohammad Abiad, M. M. Abd El-Raouf, Haitham M. Yousof, M. E. Bakr, Oluwafemi Samson Balogun, M. Yusuf, Getachew Tekle Mekiso, Yusra A. Tashkandy
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2025-07-01
Series:Scientific Reports
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Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-07426-3
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author Mohammad Abiad
M. M. Abd El-Raouf
Haitham M. Yousof
M. E. Bakr
Oluwafemi Samson Balogun
M. Yusuf
Getachew Tekle Mekiso
Yusra A. Tashkandy
author_facet Mohammad Abiad
M. M. Abd El-Raouf
Haitham M. Yousof
M. E. Bakr
Oluwafemi Samson Balogun
M. Yusuf
Getachew Tekle Mekiso
Yusra A. Tashkandy
author_sort Mohammad Abiad
collection DOAJ
description Abstract This paper aims to model the bimodal and right-skewed aircraft windshield data using a novel compounded-Pareto distribution. The method of maximum likelihood is employed to estimate the unknown model parameters, and the performance of the estimators under finite samples is evaluated through a comprehensive simulation study. The practical applicability of the proposed model is demonstrated using two real-world reliability datasets. Reliability analysis based on Peaks Over a Random Threshold Value at Risk (PORT-VAR) is crucial for aircraft windshield manufacturers, as it provides a rigorous assessment of extreme failure events and service times-key factors in ensuring product safety and longevity. By identifying the frequency and severity of failures exceeding specific VAR thresholds, this analysis enables companies to understand the upper bounds of their products’ performance under stress, optimize designs for enhanced durability, and develop proactive maintenance strategies. In this paper, we present a comprehensive reliability PORT-VAR analysis to support these objectives and highlight the relevance of the proposed model in extreme value risk modeling and real-world reliability scenarios.
format Article
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institution Kabale University
issn 2045-2322
language English
publishDate 2025-07-01
publisher Nature Portfolio
record_format Article
series Scientific Reports
spelling doaj-art-9081cac045324aa1b1fd4b24df39fd9c2025-08-20T03:45:26ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222025-07-0115112210.1038/s41598-025-07426-3A novel Compound-Pareto model with applications and reliability peaks above a random threshold value at risk analysisMohammad Abiad0M. M. Abd El-Raouf1Haitham M. Yousof2M. E. Bakr3Oluwafemi Samson Balogun4M. Yusuf5Getachew Tekle Mekiso6Yusra A. Tashkandy7College of Business Administration, American University of the Middle EastBasic and Applied Science Institute, Arab Academy for Science, Technology and Maritime Transport (AASTMT)Department of Statistics, Mathematics and Insurance, Benha UniversityDepartment of Statistics and Operations Research, College of Science, King Saud UniversityDepartment of Computing, Faculty of Science, Forestry and Technology, University of Eastern FinlandDepartment of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Helwan universityDepartment of Statistics, Wachemo UniversityDepartment of Statistics and Operations Research, College of Science, King Saud UniversityAbstract This paper aims to model the bimodal and right-skewed aircraft windshield data using a novel compounded-Pareto distribution. The method of maximum likelihood is employed to estimate the unknown model parameters, and the performance of the estimators under finite samples is evaluated through a comprehensive simulation study. The practical applicability of the proposed model is demonstrated using two real-world reliability datasets. Reliability analysis based on Peaks Over a Random Threshold Value at Risk (PORT-VAR) is crucial for aircraft windshield manufacturers, as it provides a rigorous assessment of extreme failure events and service times-key factors in ensuring product safety and longevity. By identifying the frequency and severity of failures exceeding specific VAR thresholds, this analysis enables companies to understand the upper bounds of their products’ performance under stress, optimize designs for enhanced durability, and develop proactive maintenance strategies. In this paper, we present a comprehensive reliability PORT-VAR analysis to support these objectives and highlight the relevance of the proposed model in extreme value risk modeling and real-world reliability scenarios.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-07426-3PORT-VARRandom ThresholdPhysical DataAircraft WindshieldPareto ModelsReliability Modeling
spellingShingle Mohammad Abiad
M. M. Abd El-Raouf
Haitham M. Yousof
M. E. Bakr
Oluwafemi Samson Balogun
M. Yusuf
Getachew Tekle Mekiso
Yusra A. Tashkandy
A novel Compound-Pareto model with applications and reliability peaks above a random threshold value at risk analysis
Scientific Reports
PORT-VAR
Random Threshold
Physical Data
Aircraft Windshield
Pareto Models
Reliability Modeling
title A novel Compound-Pareto model with applications and reliability peaks above a random threshold value at risk analysis
title_full A novel Compound-Pareto model with applications and reliability peaks above a random threshold value at risk analysis
title_fullStr A novel Compound-Pareto model with applications and reliability peaks above a random threshold value at risk analysis
title_full_unstemmed A novel Compound-Pareto model with applications and reliability peaks above a random threshold value at risk analysis
title_short A novel Compound-Pareto model with applications and reliability peaks above a random threshold value at risk analysis
title_sort novel compound pareto model with applications and reliability peaks above a random threshold value at risk analysis
topic PORT-VAR
Random Threshold
Physical Data
Aircraft Windshield
Pareto Models
Reliability Modeling
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-07426-3
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