Dynamics and optimal control of fractional-order monkeypox epidemic model with social distancing habits and public awareness
In this article, we propose a fractional-order monkeypox epidemic model incorporating social distancing habits and public awareness. The model includes the addition of a protected compartment and a saturated transmission rate. We implement a power rescaling for the parameters of the proposed model t...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2025-01-01
|
| Series: | Computer Methods and Programs in Biomedicine Update |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666990025000114 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1850233058423209984 |
|---|---|
| author | Raqqasyi Rahmatullah Musafir Agus Suryanto Isnani Darti Trisilowati |
| author_facet | Raqqasyi Rahmatullah Musafir Agus Suryanto Isnani Darti Trisilowati |
| author_sort | Raqqasyi Rahmatullah Musafir |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In this article, we propose a fractional-order monkeypox epidemic model incorporating social distancing habits and public awareness. The model includes the addition of a protected compartment and a saturated transmission rate. We implement a power rescaling for the parameters of the proposed model to ensure dimensional consistency. We have investigated the existence, uniqueness, nonnegativity, and boundedness of the solution. The model features monkeypox-free, human-endemic, and endemic equilibrium points, which depend on the order of derivative. The existence and stability of each equilibrium point have been analyzed locally and globally, depending on the basic reproduction number. Moreover, the basic reproduction number of the model also depends on the order of derivative. We carried out a case study using real data showing that the fractional-order model performs better than the first-order model in calibration and forecasting. Numerical simulations confirm the stability properties of each equilibrium point with respect to the specified parameter values. Numerical simulations also demonstrate that the social distancing habits can reduce monkeypox cases in the early stages, but do not significantly alter the basic reproduction number. Meanwhile, public awareness can substantially modify the basic reproduction number, shifting the endemic condition towards a disease-free state, although its impact on case reduction in the early period is not significant. We also implemented optimal control strategies for vector culling and vaccination in the proposed model. We have solved the optimal control problem, and the simulation results show that the combination of both controls yields the minimum cost with better effectiveness compared to the controls implemented separately. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-90518a71d4f04a5689519b247763f02f |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2666-9900 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Computer Methods and Programs in Biomedicine Update |
| spelling | doaj-art-90518a71d4f04a5689519b247763f02f2025-08-20T02:03:00ZengElsevierComputer Methods and Programs in Biomedicine Update2666-99002025-01-01710018710.1016/j.cmpbup.2025.100187Dynamics and optimal control of fractional-order monkeypox epidemic model with social distancing habits and public awarenessRaqqasyi Rahmatullah Musafir0Agus Suryanto1Isnani Darti2 Trisilowati3Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, University of Brawijaya, Jl. Veteran Malang 65145, IndonesiaDepartment of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, University of Brawijaya, Jl. Veteran Malang 65145, IndonesiaCorresponding author.; Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, University of Brawijaya, Jl. Veteran Malang 65145, IndonesiaDepartment of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, University of Brawijaya, Jl. Veteran Malang 65145, IndonesiaIn this article, we propose a fractional-order monkeypox epidemic model incorporating social distancing habits and public awareness. The model includes the addition of a protected compartment and a saturated transmission rate. We implement a power rescaling for the parameters of the proposed model to ensure dimensional consistency. We have investigated the existence, uniqueness, nonnegativity, and boundedness of the solution. The model features monkeypox-free, human-endemic, and endemic equilibrium points, which depend on the order of derivative. The existence and stability of each equilibrium point have been analyzed locally and globally, depending on the basic reproduction number. Moreover, the basic reproduction number of the model also depends on the order of derivative. We carried out a case study using real data showing that the fractional-order model performs better than the first-order model in calibration and forecasting. Numerical simulations confirm the stability properties of each equilibrium point with respect to the specified parameter values. Numerical simulations also demonstrate that the social distancing habits can reduce monkeypox cases in the early stages, but do not significantly alter the basic reproduction number. Meanwhile, public awareness can substantially modify the basic reproduction number, shifting the endemic condition towards a disease-free state, although its impact on case reduction in the early period is not significant. We also implemented optimal control strategies for vector culling and vaccination in the proposed model. We have solved the optimal control problem, and the simulation results show that the combination of both controls yields the minimum cost with better effectiveness compared to the controls implemented separately.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666990025000114Fractional-order modelMonkeypoxSocial distancingPublic awarenessOptimal control |
| spellingShingle | Raqqasyi Rahmatullah Musafir Agus Suryanto Isnani Darti Trisilowati Dynamics and optimal control of fractional-order monkeypox epidemic model with social distancing habits and public awareness Computer Methods and Programs in Biomedicine Update Fractional-order model Monkeypox Social distancing Public awareness Optimal control |
| title | Dynamics and optimal control of fractional-order monkeypox epidemic model with social distancing habits and public awareness |
| title_full | Dynamics and optimal control of fractional-order monkeypox epidemic model with social distancing habits and public awareness |
| title_fullStr | Dynamics and optimal control of fractional-order monkeypox epidemic model with social distancing habits and public awareness |
| title_full_unstemmed | Dynamics and optimal control of fractional-order monkeypox epidemic model with social distancing habits and public awareness |
| title_short | Dynamics and optimal control of fractional-order monkeypox epidemic model with social distancing habits and public awareness |
| title_sort | dynamics and optimal control of fractional order monkeypox epidemic model with social distancing habits and public awareness |
| topic | Fractional-order model Monkeypox Social distancing Public awareness Optimal control |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666990025000114 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT raqqasyirahmatullahmusafir dynamicsandoptimalcontroloffractionalordermonkeypoxepidemicmodelwithsocialdistancinghabitsandpublicawareness AT agussuryanto dynamicsandoptimalcontroloffractionalordermonkeypoxepidemicmodelwithsocialdistancinghabitsandpublicawareness AT isnanidarti dynamicsandoptimalcontroloffractionalordermonkeypoxepidemicmodelwithsocialdistancinghabitsandpublicawareness AT trisilowati dynamicsandoptimalcontroloffractionalordermonkeypoxepidemicmodelwithsocialdistancinghabitsandpublicawareness |