Precipitation Extremes and Their Modulation by Convective Organization in RCEMIP
Abstract We examine the influence of convective organization on extreme tropical precipitation events using model simulation data from the Radiative‐Convective Equilibrium Model Intercomparison Project (RCEMIP). At a given SST, simulations with convective organization have more intense precipitation...
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American Geophysical Union (AGU)
2024-11-01
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| Series: | Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004535 |
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| author | Graham L. O’Donnell Allison A. Wing |
| author_facet | Graham L. O’Donnell Allison A. Wing |
| author_sort | Graham L. O’Donnell |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract We examine the influence of convective organization on extreme tropical precipitation events using model simulation data from the Radiative‐Convective Equilibrium Model Intercomparison Project (RCEMIP). At a given SST, simulations with convective organization have more intense precipitation extremes than those without it at all scales, including instantaneous precipitation at the grid resolution (3 km). Across large‐domain simulations with convective organization, models with explicit convection exhibit better agreement in the response of extreme precipitation rates to warming than those with parameterized convection. Among models with explicit convection, deviations from the Clausius‐Clapeyron scaling of precipitation extremes with warming are correlated with changes in organization, especially on large spatiotemporal scales. Though the RCEMIP ensemble is nearly evenly split between CRMs which become more and less organized with warming, most of the models which show increased organization with warming also allow super‐CC scaling of precipitation extremes. We also apply an established precipitation extremes scaling to understand changes in the extreme condensation events leading to extreme precipitation. Increased organization leads to greater increases in precipitation extremes by enhancing both the dynamic and implied efficiency contributions. We link these contributions to environmental variables modified by the presence of organization and suggest that increases in moisture in the aggregated region may be responsible for enhancing both convective updraft area fraction and precipitation efficiency. By leveraging a controlled intercomparison of models with both explicit and parameterized convection, this work provides strong evidence for the amplification of tropical precipitation extremes and their response to warming by convective organization. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-90401a3b6ec94be89dff29b026a321d3 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1942-2466 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-11-01 |
| publisher | American Geophysical Union (AGU) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems |
| spelling | doaj-art-90401a3b6ec94be89dff29b026a321d32025-08-20T02:07:41ZengAmerican Geophysical Union (AGU)Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems1942-24662024-11-011611n/an/a10.1029/2024MS004535Precipitation Extremes and Their Modulation by Convective Organization in RCEMIPGraham L. O’Donnell0Allison A. Wing1Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science Florida State University Tallahassee FL USADepartment of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science Florida State University Tallahassee FL USAAbstract We examine the influence of convective organization on extreme tropical precipitation events using model simulation data from the Radiative‐Convective Equilibrium Model Intercomparison Project (RCEMIP). At a given SST, simulations with convective organization have more intense precipitation extremes than those without it at all scales, including instantaneous precipitation at the grid resolution (3 km). Across large‐domain simulations with convective organization, models with explicit convection exhibit better agreement in the response of extreme precipitation rates to warming than those with parameterized convection. Among models with explicit convection, deviations from the Clausius‐Clapeyron scaling of precipitation extremes with warming are correlated with changes in organization, especially on large spatiotemporal scales. Though the RCEMIP ensemble is nearly evenly split between CRMs which become more and less organized with warming, most of the models which show increased organization with warming also allow super‐CC scaling of precipitation extremes. We also apply an established precipitation extremes scaling to understand changes in the extreme condensation events leading to extreme precipitation. Increased organization leads to greater increases in precipitation extremes by enhancing both the dynamic and implied efficiency contributions. We link these contributions to environmental variables modified by the presence of organization and suggest that increases in moisture in the aggregated region may be responsible for enhancing both convective updraft area fraction and precipitation efficiency. By leveraging a controlled intercomparison of models with both explicit and parameterized convection, this work provides strong evidence for the amplification of tropical precipitation extremes and their response to warming by convective organization.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004535RCEMIPconvective self‐aggregationextreme precipitationidealized modelingdynamicsprecipitation efficiency |
| spellingShingle | Graham L. O’Donnell Allison A. Wing Precipitation Extremes and Their Modulation by Convective Organization in RCEMIP Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems RCEMIP convective self‐aggregation extreme precipitation idealized modeling dynamics precipitation efficiency |
| title | Precipitation Extremes and Their Modulation by Convective Organization in RCEMIP |
| title_full | Precipitation Extremes and Their Modulation by Convective Organization in RCEMIP |
| title_fullStr | Precipitation Extremes and Their Modulation by Convective Organization in RCEMIP |
| title_full_unstemmed | Precipitation Extremes and Their Modulation by Convective Organization in RCEMIP |
| title_short | Precipitation Extremes and Their Modulation by Convective Organization in RCEMIP |
| title_sort | precipitation extremes and their modulation by convective organization in rcemip |
| topic | RCEMIP convective self‐aggregation extreme precipitation idealized modeling dynamics precipitation efficiency |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004535 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT grahamlodonnell precipitationextremesandtheirmodulationbyconvectiveorganizationinrcemip AT allisonawing precipitationextremesandtheirmodulationbyconvectiveorganizationinrcemip |