Extreme High‐Temperature Events Over East Asia in 1.5°C and 2°C Warmer Futures: Analysis of NCAR CESM Low‐Warming Experiments
Abstract Extreme high‐temperature events have large socioeconomic and human health impacts. East Asia (EA) is a populous region, and it is crucial to assess the changes in extreme high‐temperature events in this region under different climate change scenarios. The Community Earth System Model low‐wa...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2018-02-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076753 |
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| Summary: | Abstract Extreme high‐temperature events have large socioeconomic and human health impacts. East Asia (EA) is a populous region, and it is crucial to assess the changes in extreme high‐temperature events in this region under different climate change scenarios. The Community Earth System Model low‐warming experiment data were applied to investigate the changes in the mean and extreme high temperatures in EA under 1.5°C and 2°C warming conditions above preindustrial levels. The results show that the magnitude of warming in EA is approximately 0.2°C higher than the global mean. Most populous subregions, including eastern China, the Korean Peninsula, and Japan, will see more intense, more frequent, and longer‐lasting extreme temperature events under 1.5°C and 2°C warming. The 0.5°C lower warming will help avoid 35%–46% of the increases in extreme high‐temperature events in terms of intensity, frequency, and duration in EA with maximal avoidance values (37%–49%) occurring in Mongolia. Thus, it is beneficial for EA to limit the warming target to 1.5°C rather than 2°C. |
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| ISSN: | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |