Western North Pacific Monsoon Gyres: A New Identification Approach, Interannual Variability, and Seasonal Prediction
Abstract Western North Pacific (WNP) monsoon gyre (MG) events are an important large‐scale driver of tropical cyclone (TC) activity. However, prior studies have mostly focused on case‐specific analyses using a subjective MG identification. There is currently limited understanding of MG variability a...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2025-08-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL116456 |
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| author | Yuqi Zang Haikun Zhao Philip J. Klotzbach Chao Wang Liguang Wu |
| author_facet | Yuqi Zang Haikun Zhao Philip J. Klotzbach Chao Wang Liguang Wu |
| author_sort | Yuqi Zang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Western North Pacific (WNP) monsoon gyre (MG) events are an important large‐scale driver of tropical cyclone (TC) activity. However, prior studies have mostly focused on case‐specific analyses using a subjective MG identification. There is currently limited understanding of MG variability at interannual and longer time scales. Using spatial‐rotational metrics of the low‐level circulation, this study proposes an objective approach to identify MG events. We identify 221 MG events during the boreal summer from 1979 to 2023. MG events have an average duration of ∼5.7 days and a strong association with interannual TC activity. The interannual variability of MG activity is strongly modulated by tropical central Pacific (CP) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, which change the zonal and meridional circulation via inter‐basin interactions. We develop a physical‐empirical model for forecasting MG activity using tropical CP SST anomalies from the preceding summer as well as spring central Asian surface temperatures and North Atlantic sea level pressures. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-8fff2c0d2b6444cb9976c2ed609e99fa |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-08-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-8fff2c0d2b6444cb9976c2ed609e99fa2025-08-20T03:40:44ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072025-08-015215n/an/a10.1029/2025GL116456Western North Pacific Monsoon Gyres: A New Identification Approach, Interannual Variability, and Seasonal PredictionYuqi Zang0Haikun Zhao1Philip J. Klotzbach2Chao Wang3Liguang Wu4State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Pacific Typhoon Research Center Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing ChinaState Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Pacific Typhoon Research Center Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing ChinaDepartment of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University Fort Collins CO USAState Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Pacific Typhoon Research Center Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing ChinaDepartment of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Fudan University Shanghai ChinaAbstract Western North Pacific (WNP) monsoon gyre (MG) events are an important large‐scale driver of tropical cyclone (TC) activity. However, prior studies have mostly focused on case‐specific analyses using a subjective MG identification. There is currently limited understanding of MG variability at interannual and longer time scales. Using spatial‐rotational metrics of the low‐level circulation, this study proposes an objective approach to identify MG events. We identify 221 MG events during the boreal summer from 1979 to 2023. MG events have an average duration of ∼5.7 days and a strong association with interannual TC activity. The interannual variability of MG activity is strongly modulated by tropical central Pacific (CP) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, which change the zonal and meridional circulation via inter‐basin interactions. We develop a physical‐empirical model for forecasting MG activity using tropical CP SST anomalies from the preceding summer as well as spring central Asian surface temperatures and North Atlantic sea level pressures.https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL116456monsoon gyreinterannual variabilityseasonal forecast modeltropical cyclones |
| spellingShingle | Yuqi Zang Haikun Zhao Philip J. Klotzbach Chao Wang Liguang Wu Western North Pacific Monsoon Gyres: A New Identification Approach, Interannual Variability, and Seasonal Prediction Geophysical Research Letters monsoon gyre interannual variability seasonal forecast model tropical cyclones |
| title | Western North Pacific Monsoon Gyres: A New Identification Approach, Interannual Variability, and Seasonal Prediction |
| title_full | Western North Pacific Monsoon Gyres: A New Identification Approach, Interannual Variability, and Seasonal Prediction |
| title_fullStr | Western North Pacific Monsoon Gyres: A New Identification Approach, Interannual Variability, and Seasonal Prediction |
| title_full_unstemmed | Western North Pacific Monsoon Gyres: A New Identification Approach, Interannual Variability, and Seasonal Prediction |
| title_short | Western North Pacific Monsoon Gyres: A New Identification Approach, Interannual Variability, and Seasonal Prediction |
| title_sort | western north pacific monsoon gyres a new identification approach interannual variability and seasonal prediction |
| topic | monsoon gyre interannual variability seasonal forecast model tropical cyclones |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL116456 |
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