Mathematical Modelling and Analysis of Lassa fever Dynamics with Environmental Transmission and Reinfection
A deterministic model with a variable human population, rodent population, and Lassa virus in the environment is presented and rigorously analyzed.The model analysis showed a process known as backward bifurcation where the Lassa fever-free equilibrium (Disease-free) coexists with Lassa fever present...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2025-06-01
|
| Series: | Franklin Open |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2773186325000441 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1849471491189506048 |
|---|---|
| author | T.O. Oluyo S.O. Olanrewaju V.O. Akinsola M.O. Adeyemi J.K. Oladejo O.A. Odebiyi O.A. Adepoju A.J. Taiwo |
| author_facet | T.O. Oluyo S.O. Olanrewaju V.O. Akinsola M.O. Adeyemi J.K. Oladejo O.A. Odebiyi O.A. Adepoju A.J. Taiwo |
| author_sort | T.O. Oluyo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | A deterministic model with a variable human population, rodent population, and Lassa virus in the environment is presented and rigorously analyzed.The model analysis showed a process known as backward bifurcation where the Lassa fever-free equilibrium (Disease-free) coexists with Lassa fever present (Endemic equilibrium point) when the threshold parameter Rc is below one. The existence resulted from humans who had earlier recovered from Lassa fever being infected again with the Lassa virus when exposed continuously to the virus through environmental sources, close contact with infected individuals, and infected rodents. This result means, that having the threshold parameter Rc below one does not guarantee total eradication of the menace.Further investigation showed that backward bifurcation could be eliminated in the absence of reinfection. As a result, the global stability of the disease-free equilibrium is guaranteed when the threshold parameter Rc is below unity.Moreover, using a quadratic Lyapunov function, it is discovered that the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable.Numerical analysis revealed the impacts of reinfection and other important parameters on the transmission of the disease. The analysis not only gave a thorough knowledge of the transmission but also justified the analytical results. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-8fef4ca2f0e84c6b999d939f699b7b2b |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2773-1863 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Franklin Open |
| spelling | doaj-art-8fef4ca2f0e84c6b999d939f699b7b2b2025-08-20T03:24:48ZengElsevierFranklin Open2773-18632025-06-011110025410.1016/j.fraope.2025.100254Mathematical Modelling and Analysis of Lassa fever Dynamics with Environmental Transmission and ReinfectionT.O. Oluyo0S.O. Olanrewaju1V.O. Akinsola2M.O. Adeyemi3J.K. Oladejo4O.A. Odebiyi5O.A. Adepoju6A.J. Taiwo7Department of Pure and Applied Mathematics, Ladoke Akintola University of Technology, Ogbomoso, Nigeria; Corresponding author.Department of Pure and Applied Mathematics, Ladoke Akintola University of Technology, Ogbomoso, NigeriaDepartment of Mathematics, Adeleke University, Ede, NigeriaDepartment of Mathematics,University of Ilesa, Ilesa, NigeriaDepartment of Pure and Applied Mathematics, Ladoke Akintola University of Technology, Ogbomoso, NigeriaDepartment of Pure and Applied Mathematics, Ladoke Akintola University of Technology, Ogbomoso, NigeriaDepartment of Pure and Applied Mathematics, Ladoke Akintola University of Technology, Ogbomoso, NigeriaDepartment of Pure and Applied Mathematics, Ladoke Akintola University of Technology, Ogbomoso, NigeriaA deterministic model with a variable human population, rodent population, and Lassa virus in the environment is presented and rigorously analyzed.The model analysis showed a process known as backward bifurcation where the Lassa fever-free equilibrium (Disease-free) coexists with Lassa fever present (Endemic equilibrium point) when the threshold parameter Rc is below one. The existence resulted from humans who had earlier recovered from Lassa fever being infected again with the Lassa virus when exposed continuously to the virus through environmental sources, close contact with infected individuals, and infected rodents. This result means, that having the threshold parameter Rc below one does not guarantee total eradication of the menace.Further investigation showed that backward bifurcation could be eliminated in the absence of reinfection. As a result, the global stability of the disease-free equilibrium is guaranteed when the threshold parameter Rc is below unity.Moreover, using a quadratic Lyapunov function, it is discovered that the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable.Numerical analysis revealed the impacts of reinfection and other important parameters on the transmission of the disease. The analysis not only gave a thorough knowledge of the transmission but also justified the analytical results.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2773186325000441Backward bifurcationReinfectionEnvironmental routeGlobal stabilityLocal stability |
| spellingShingle | T.O. Oluyo S.O. Olanrewaju V.O. Akinsola M.O. Adeyemi J.K. Oladejo O.A. Odebiyi O.A. Adepoju A.J. Taiwo Mathematical Modelling and Analysis of Lassa fever Dynamics with Environmental Transmission and Reinfection Franklin Open Backward bifurcation Reinfection Environmental route Global stability Local stability |
| title | Mathematical Modelling and Analysis of Lassa fever Dynamics with Environmental Transmission and Reinfection |
| title_full | Mathematical Modelling and Analysis of Lassa fever Dynamics with Environmental Transmission and Reinfection |
| title_fullStr | Mathematical Modelling and Analysis of Lassa fever Dynamics with Environmental Transmission and Reinfection |
| title_full_unstemmed | Mathematical Modelling and Analysis of Lassa fever Dynamics with Environmental Transmission and Reinfection |
| title_short | Mathematical Modelling and Analysis of Lassa fever Dynamics with Environmental Transmission and Reinfection |
| title_sort | mathematical modelling and analysis of lassa fever dynamics with environmental transmission and reinfection |
| topic | Backward bifurcation Reinfection Environmental route Global stability Local stability |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2773186325000441 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT tooluyo mathematicalmodellingandanalysisoflassafeverdynamicswithenvironmentaltransmissionandreinfection AT soolanrewaju mathematicalmodellingandanalysisoflassafeverdynamicswithenvironmentaltransmissionandreinfection AT voakinsola mathematicalmodellingandanalysisoflassafeverdynamicswithenvironmentaltransmissionandreinfection AT moadeyemi mathematicalmodellingandanalysisoflassafeverdynamicswithenvironmentaltransmissionandreinfection AT jkoladejo mathematicalmodellingandanalysisoflassafeverdynamicswithenvironmentaltransmissionandreinfection AT oaodebiyi mathematicalmodellingandanalysisoflassafeverdynamicswithenvironmentaltransmissionandreinfection AT oaadepoju mathematicalmodellingandanalysisoflassafeverdynamicswithenvironmentaltransmissionandreinfection AT ajtaiwo mathematicalmodellingandanalysisoflassafeverdynamicswithenvironmentaltransmissionandreinfection |