The burden and trend prediction of ischemic heart disease associated with lead exposure: Insights from the Global Burden of Disease study 2021
Abstract Aim The purpose of this study was to quantify the global burden of ischemic heart disease associated with lead exposure, utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study, 2021. Methods Data on the burden of ischemic heart disease (IHD) associated with lead exposure were compiled...
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BMC
2025-04-01
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| Series: | Environmental Health |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12940-025-01155-w |
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| author | Yunfa Ding Anxia Deng Teng Fei Qi Hao Yu Liang Ping Wu Hongbin Zhang |
| author_facet | Yunfa Ding Anxia Deng Teng Fei Qi Hao Yu Liang Ping Wu Hongbin Zhang |
| author_sort | Yunfa Ding |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Aim The purpose of this study was to quantify the global burden of ischemic heart disease associated with lead exposure, utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study, 2021. Methods Data on the burden of ischemic heart disease (IHD) associated with lead exposure were compiled globally from 1990 to 2021. These data were further stratified by dimensions including gender, age, GBD regions, and countries. Utilizing the Joinpoint regression model, we analyzed long-term trends in the burden of IHD disease associated with lead exposure and derived estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC). For future projections, we used an ARIMA model to predict potential trends in the burden of IHD disease associated with lead exposure over the next decade. Results The study's findings reveal that in 2021, there were 590,370 deaths attributed to IHD (95% UI (Uncertainty interval (UI) is derived from the Bayesian school of statistical analysis used in the GBD studies. Unlike the frequency school of thought, which constructs confidence intervals (CI), the Bayesian school of thought views probability as a measure of confidence in an event, and in this approach the actual mean is viewed as a random variable dependent on the data and prior knowledge, with UI indicating that there is a specific probability (e.g., 95%) that the actual mean will fall within the interval.): -83,778 to 1,233,628) and 11,854,661 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) (95% UI: -1,668,553 to 24,791,275) globally due to lead exposure, reflecting an increasing and then stabilizing trend from 1990 to 2021. Comparative analysis across study regions indicated a higher disease burden for IHD in regions with lower Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) values, contrasting with the lower burden in regions with higher SDI values. Furthermore, IHD mortality and DALYs peak in the 70–80 age cohort, with males exhibiting higher rates compared to females. Decadal projections indicate a downward trend in IHD mortality and DALYs for regions with higher SDI, in contrast to an anticipated upward trend in regions with lower SDI. Conclusion The global burden of ischemic heart disease associated with lead exposure is increasing, particularly in regions with low SDI values and within the elderly population. Considering the profound threat posed by lead exposure to the global burden of IHD, there is an imperative to consistently reinforce and execute robust prevention strategies to mitigate environmental lead exposure. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-8feec2bc75284e08b1a67f4e84f77904 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1476-069X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-04-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
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| series | Environmental Health |
| spelling | doaj-art-8feec2bc75284e08b1a67f4e84f779042025-08-20T02:19:57ZengBMCEnvironmental Health1476-069X2025-04-0124111910.1186/s12940-025-01155-wThe burden and trend prediction of ischemic heart disease associated with lead exposure: Insights from the Global Burden of Disease study 2021Yunfa Ding0Anxia Deng1Teng Fei Qi2Hao Yu3Liang Ping Wu4Hongbin Zhang5Jinshazhou Hospital of Guangzhou University of Chinese MedicineState Key Laboratory of Pathogenesis, Prevention and Treatment of High Incidence Diseases in Central Asian, Department of Cardiology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, Clinical Medical Research Institute of Xinjiang Medical UniversityJinshazhou Hospital of Guangzhou University of Chinese MedicineDepartment of Thyroid Surgery, Zhujiang Hospital of Southern Medical UniversityJinshazhou Hospital of Guangzhou University of Chinese MedicineDepartment of Basic Medical Research, General Hospital of Southern Theater Command of PLAAbstract Aim The purpose of this study was to quantify the global burden of ischemic heart disease associated with lead exposure, utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study, 2021. Methods Data on the burden of ischemic heart disease (IHD) associated with lead exposure were compiled globally from 1990 to 2021. These data were further stratified by dimensions including gender, age, GBD regions, and countries. Utilizing the Joinpoint regression model, we analyzed long-term trends in the burden of IHD disease associated with lead exposure and derived estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC). For future projections, we used an ARIMA model to predict potential trends in the burden of IHD disease associated with lead exposure over the next decade. Results The study's findings reveal that in 2021, there were 590,370 deaths attributed to IHD (95% UI (Uncertainty interval (UI) is derived from the Bayesian school of statistical analysis used in the GBD studies. Unlike the frequency school of thought, which constructs confidence intervals (CI), the Bayesian school of thought views probability as a measure of confidence in an event, and in this approach the actual mean is viewed as a random variable dependent on the data and prior knowledge, with UI indicating that there is a specific probability (e.g., 95%) that the actual mean will fall within the interval.): -83,778 to 1,233,628) and 11,854,661 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) (95% UI: -1,668,553 to 24,791,275) globally due to lead exposure, reflecting an increasing and then stabilizing trend from 1990 to 2021. Comparative analysis across study regions indicated a higher disease burden for IHD in regions with lower Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) values, contrasting with the lower burden in regions with higher SDI values. Furthermore, IHD mortality and DALYs peak in the 70–80 age cohort, with males exhibiting higher rates compared to females. Decadal projections indicate a downward trend in IHD mortality and DALYs for regions with higher SDI, in contrast to an anticipated upward trend in regions with lower SDI. Conclusion The global burden of ischemic heart disease associated with lead exposure is increasing, particularly in regions with low SDI values and within the elderly population. Considering the profound threat posed by lead exposure to the global burden of IHD, there is an imperative to consistently reinforce and execute robust prevention strategies to mitigate environmental lead exposure.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12940-025-01155-wDeathDisability-adjusted life-yearsGlobal burden of diseaseIschemic heart diseaseLead exposure |
| spellingShingle | Yunfa Ding Anxia Deng Teng Fei Qi Hao Yu Liang Ping Wu Hongbin Zhang The burden and trend prediction of ischemic heart disease associated with lead exposure: Insights from the Global Burden of Disease study 2021 Environmental Health Death Disability-adjusted life-years Global burden of disease Ischemic heart disease Lead exposure |
| title | The burden and trend prediction of ischemic heart disease associated with lead exposure: Insights from the Global Burden of Disease study 2021 |
| title_full | The burden and trend prediction of ischemic heart disease associated with lead exposure: Insights from the Global Burden of Disease study 2021 |
| title_fullStr | The burden and trend prediction of ischemic heart disease associated with lead exposure: Insights from the Global Burden of Disease study 2021 |
| title_full_unstemmed | The burden and trend prediction of ischemic heart disease associated with lead exposure: Insights from the Global Burden of Disease study 2021 |
| title_short | The burden and trend prediction of ischemic heart disease associated with lead exposure: Insights from the Global Burden of Disease study 2021 |
| title_sort | burden and trend prediction of ischemic heart disease associated with lead exposure insights from the global burden of disease study 2021 |
| topic | Death Disability-adjusted life-years Global burden of disease Ischemic heart disease Lead exposure |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12940-025-01155-w |
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