Global Changes in 20‐Year, 50‐Year, and 100‐Year River Floods
Abstract Concepts like the 100‐year flood event can be misleading if they are not updated to reflect significant changes over time. Here, we model observed annual maximum daily streamflow using a nonstationary approach to provide the first global picture of changes in: (a) the magnitudes of the 20‐,...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2021-03-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091824 |
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| author | L. Slater G. Villarini S. Archfield D. Faulkner R. Lamb A. Khouakhi J. Yin |
| author_facet | L. Slater G. Villarini S. Archfield D. Faulkner R. Lamb A. Khouakhi J. Yin |
| author_sort | L. Slater |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Concepts like the 100‐year flood event can be misleading if they are not updated to reflect significant changes over time. Here, we model observed annual maximum daily streamflow using a nonstationary approach to provide the first global picture of changes in: (a) the magnitudes of the 20‐, 50‐, and 100‐year floods (i.e., flows of a given exceedance probability in each year); (b) the return periods of the 20‐, 50‐, and 100‐year floods, as assessed in 1970 (i.e., flows of a fixed magnitude); and (c) corresponding flood probabilities. Empirically, we find the 20‐/50‐year floods have mostly increased in temperate climate zones, but decreased in arid, tropical, polar, and cold zones. In contrast, 100‐year floods have mostly decreased in arid/temperate zones and exhibit mixed trends in cold zones, but results are influenced by the small number of stations with long records, and highlight the need for continued updating of hazard assessments. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-8fc062a00098466d9d60af7096d4812a |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2021-03-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-8fc062a00098466d9d60af7096d4812a2025-08-20T01:48:15ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072021-03-01486n/an/a10.1029/2020GL091824Global Changes in 20‐Year, 50‐Year, and 100‐Year River FloodsL. Slater0G. Villarini1S. Archfield2D. Faulkner3R. Lamb4A. Khouakhi5J. Yin6School of Geography and the Environment University of Oxford Oxford UKIIHR ‐ Hydroscience & Engineering University of Iowa Iowa City IA USAU.S. Geological Survey Reston VA USAJBA Consulting Skipton UKJBA Trust Skipton UKSchool of Water, Energy and Environment Center for Environmental and Agricultural Informatics Cranfield University Cranfield UKState Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science Wuhan University Wuhan ChinaAbstract Concepts like the 100‐year flood event can be misleading if they are not updated to reflect significant changes over time. Here, we model observed annual maximum daily streamflow using a nonstationary approach to provide the first global picture of changes in: (a) the magnitudes of the 20‐, 50‐, and 100‐year floods (i.e., flows of a given exceedance probability in each year); (b) the return periods of the 20‐, 50‐, and 100‐year floods, as assessed in 1970 (i.e., flows of a fixed magnitude); and (c) corresponding flood probabilities. Empirically, we find the 20‐/50‐year floods have mostly increased in temperate climate zones, but decreased in arid, tropical, polar, and cold zones. In contrast, 100‐year floods have mostly decreased in arid/temperate zones and exhibit mixed trends in cold zones, but results are influenced by the small number of stations with long records, and highlight the need for continued updating of hazard assessments.https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091824floodsglobalhazardnonstationarityprobabilitiesreturn periods |
| spellingShingle | L. Slater G. Villarini S. Archfield D. Faulkner R. Lamb A. Khouakhi J. Yin Global Changes in 20‐Year, 50‐Year, and 100‐Year River Floods Geophysical Research Letters floods global hazard nonstationarity probabilities return periods |
| title | Global Changes in 20‐Year, 50‐Year, and 100‐Year River Floods |
| title_full | Global Changes in 20‐Year, 50‐Year, and 100‐Year River Floods |
| title_fullStr | Global Changes in 20‐Year, 50‐Year, and 100‐Year River Floods |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global Changes in 20‐Year, 50‐Year, and 100‐Year River Floods |
| title_short | Global Changes in 20‐Year, 50‐Year, and 100‐Year River Floods |
| title_sort | global changes in 20 year 50 year and 100 year river floods |
| topic | floods global hazard nonstationarity probabilities return periods |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091824 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT lslater globalchangesin20year50yearand100yearriverfloods AT gvillarini globalchangesin20year50yearand100yearriverfloods AT sarchfield globalchangesin20year50yearand100yearriverfloods AT dfaulkner globalchangesin20year50yearand100yearriverfloods AT rlamb globalchangesin20year50yearand100yearriverfloods AT akhouakhi globalchangesin20year50yearand100yearriverfloods AT jyin globalchangesin20year50yearand100yearriverfloods |