Impacts and Prediction of Land Use/Cover Change on Runoff in the Jinghe River Basin, China

The Jinghe River flows through the gully area of the Loess Plateau, where soil erosion is relatively severe. With the intensification of human activities, quantitatively evaluating the impact of land use/cover change (LUCC) on runoff is of paramount importance. This study is based on the Soil and Wa...

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Main Authors: Ling Zhang, Weipeng Li, Zhongsheng Chen, Ruilin Hu, Zhaoqi Yin, Chanrong Qin, Xueqi Li
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2025-03-01
Series:Land
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Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/3/626
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author Ling Zhang
Weipeng Li
Zhongsheng Chen
Ruilin Hu
Zhaoqi Yin
Chanrong Qin
Xueqi Li
author_facet Ling Zhang
Weipeng Li
Zhongsheng Chen
Ruilin Hu
Zhaoqi Yin
Chanrong Qin
Xueqi Li
author_sort Ling Zhang
collection DOAJ
description The Jinghe River flows through the gully area of the Loess Plateau, where soil erosion is relatively severe. With the intensification of human activities, quantitatively evaluating the impact of land use/cover change (LUCC) on runoff is of paramount importance. This study is based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) models, and quantitatively analyzes the effect of LUCC on runoff in the Jinghe River Basin (JRB) through land use data from 2000 to 2020 and predicted scenarios for 2030 that encourage development, farmland protection, and ecological protection. The results show that reductions in farmland, grassland, and forest areas promote runoff, while increases in construction land similarly contribute to greater runoff. In all 2030 scenarios, the JRB is dominated by farmland and grassland. The mean annual runoff of LUCC under the three simulated prediction scenarios shows an increasing trend compared to LUCC in 2020, and the distribution of mean annual runoff depth is roughly the same. In addition, there is a strong interconnection between land use types and runoff in their dynamic relationship. Within the LUCC scenario, the decrease in farmland and forest land, along with the growth of construction land area promote runoff, while grassland plays a suppressive role in runoff. The results can offer a scientific foundation for improving soil erosion as well as optimizing land use patterns in the JRB.
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spelling doaj-art-8f9e0df0541c4433ae495cedfa1326bc2025-08-20T02:42:35ZengMDPI AGLand2073-445X2025-03-0114362610.3390/land14030626Impacts and Prediction of Land Use/Cover Change on Runoff in the Jinghe River Basin, ChinaLing Zhang0Weipeng Li1Zhongsheng Chen2Ruilin Hu3Zhaoqi Yin4Chanrong Qin5Xueqi Li6School of Geographical Sciences, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637009, ChinaSchool of Geographical Sciences, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637009, ChinaSchool of Geographical Sciences, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637009, ChinaSchool of Geographical Sciences, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637009, ChinaSchool of Geographical Sciences, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637009, ChinaSchool of Geographical Sciences, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637009, ChinaSchool of Geographical Sciences, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637009, ChinaThe Jinghe River flows through the gully area of the Loess Plateau, where soil erosion is relatively severe. With the intensification of human activities, quantitatively evaluating the impact of land use/cover change (LUCC) on runoff is of paramount importance. This study is based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) models, and quantitatively analyzes the effect of LUCC on runoff in the Jinghe River Basin (JRB) through land use data from 2000 to 2020 and predicted scenarios for 2030 that encourage development, farmland protection, and ecological protection. The results show that reductions in farmland, grassland, and forest areas promote runoff, while increases in construction land similarly contribute to greater runoff. In all 2030 scenarios, the JRB is dominated by farmland and grassland. The mean annual runoff of LUCC under the three simulated prediction scenarios shows an increasing trend compared to LUCC in 2020, and the distribution of mean annual runoff depth is roughly the same. In addition, there is a strong interconnection between land use types and runoff in their dynamic relationship. Within the LUCC scenario, the decrease in farmland and forest land, along with the growth of construction land area promote runoff, while grassland plays a suppressive role in runoff. The results can offer a scientific foundation for improving soil erosion as well as optimizing land use patterns in the JRB.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/3/626land use/cover changeSWAT modelPLUS modelrunoff simulationJinghe River Basin
spellingShingle Ling Zhang
Weipeng Li
Zhongsheng Chen
Ruilin Hu
Zhaoqi Yin
Chanrong Qin
Xueqi Li
Impacts and Prediction of Land Use/Cover Change on Runoff in the Jinghe River Basin, China
Land
land use/cover change
SWAT model
PLUS model
runoff simulation
Jinghe River Basin
title Impacts and Prediction of Land Use/Cover Change on Runoff in the Jinghe River Basin, China
title_full Impacts and Prediction of Land Use/Cover Change on Runoff in the Jinghe River Basin, China
title_fullStr Impacts and Prediction of Land Use/Cover Change on Runoff in the Jinghe River Basin, China
title_full_unstemmed Impacts and Prediction of Land Use/Cover Change on Runoff in the Jinghe River Basin, China
title_short Impacts and Prediction of Land Use/Cover Change on Runoff in the Jinghe River Basin, China
title_sort impacts and prediction of land use cover change on runoff in the jinghe river basin china
topic land use/cover change
SWAT model
PLUS model
runoff simulation
Jinghe River Basin
url https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/3/626
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