Coupling natural-social models can better quantify the interactions in achieving carbon neutrality in China
Human activities have greatly altered Earth’s radiative balance, necessitating assessments that couple natural and social systems to address the resulting impacts and interactions. However, traditional Earth System Models (ESMs) and integrated assessment models often split to simulate changes in the...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ada8c3 |
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| author | Tianpeng Wang Yixiong Lu Fei Teng Xiliang Zhang Xiaoye Zhang Min Wei Tongwen Wu Deying Wang Jing Sun Junting Zhong |
| author_facet | Tianpeng Wang Yixiong Lu Fei Teng Xiliang Zhang Xiaoye Zhang Min Wei Tongwen Wu Deying Wang Jing Sun Junting Zhong |
| author_sort | Tianpeng Wang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Human activities have greatly altered Earth’s radiative balance, necessitating assessments that couple natural and social systems to address the resulting impacts and interactions. However, traditional Earth System Models (ESMs) and integrated assessment models often split to simulate changes in the two systems and neglect the feedback between these systems, limiting our understanding of the pathways to carbon neutrality, the associated global warming level and climate change impacts. This study constructs a coupled natural-social systems framework to bridge this gap, integrating the China-in-global energy model with the Beijing Climate Center ESM version 1. The results show that bidirectional feedbacks in the natural-social system increase the demand for electricity under China’s carbon neutrality target, increasing the pressure to reduce emissions and driving up the carbon prices. Meanwhile, carbon neutrality does not eliminate all negative climate impacts and can substantially reduce the economic output of climate-vulnerable sectors in China, highlighting the need for early adaptation measures. This study emphasizes the importance of planning China’s climate neutrality pathways from a coupled natural-social system perspective. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-8ec6d58b6f5b4490ab22e42fee92408e |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-8ec6d58b6f5b4490ab22e42fee92408e2025-01-21T17:36:22ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262025-01-0120202402610.1088/1748-9326/ada8c3Coupling natural-social models can better quantify the interactions in achieving carbon neutrality in ChinaTianpeng Wang0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7470-2409Yixiong Lu1https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9823-9367Fei Teng2https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0371-1142Xiliang Zhang3Xiaoye Zhang4Min Wei5Tongwen Wu6Deying Wang7Jing Sun8Junting Zhong9Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University , Beijing 100084, People’s Republic of ChinaEarth System Modeling and Prediction Centre, China Meteorological Administration , Beijing 100081, People’s Republic of China; Monitoring and Assessment Center for Greenhouse Gases and Carbon Neutrality, China Meteorological Administration , Beijing 100081, People’s Republic of China; Key Laboratory of Earth System Modeling and Prediction, China Meteorological Administration , Beijing 100081, People’s Republic of ChinaInstitute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University , Beijing 100084, People’s Republic of ChinaInstitute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University , Beijing 100084, People’s Republic of ChinaMonitoring and Assessment Center for Greenhouse Gases and Carbon Neutrality, China Meteorological Administration , Beijing 100081, People’s Republic of China; Henan University-CAMS Joint Laboratory for Climate Change Mitigation and Carbon Neutrality , Zhengzhou 450000, People’s Republic of ChinaEarth System Modeling and Prediction Centre, China Meteorological Administration , Beijing 100081, People’s Republic of China; Key Laboratory of Earth System Modeling and Prediction, China Meteorological Administration , Beijing 100081, People’s Republic of ChinaEarth System Modeling and Prediction Centre, China Meteorological Administration , Beijing 100081, People’s Republic of China; Key Laboratory of Earth System Modeling and Prediction, China Meteorological Administration , Beijing 100081, People’s Republic of ChinaMonitoring and Assessment Center for Greenhouse Gases and Carbon Neutrality, China Meteorological Administration , Beijing 100081, People’s Republic of China; Henan University-CAMS Joint Laboratory for Climate Change Mitigation and Carbon Neutrality , Zhengzhou 450000, People’s Republic of ChinaNational Meteorological Information Center, China Meteorological Administration , Beijing 100081, People’s Republic of ChinaMonitoring and Assessment Center for Greenhouse Gases and Carbon Neutrality, China Meteorological Administration , Beijing 100081, People’s Republic of China; Henan University-CAMS Joint Laboratory for Climate Change Mitigation and Carbon Neutrality , Zhengzhou 450000, People’s Republic of ChinaHuman activities have greatly altered Earth’s radiative balance, necessitating assessments that couple natural and social systems to address the resulting impacts and interactions. However, traditional Earth System Models (ESMs) and integrated assessment models often split to simulate changes in the two systems and neglect the feedback between these systems, limiting our understanding of the pathways to carbon neutrality, the associated global warming level and climate change impacts. This study constructs a coupled natural-social systems framework to bridge this gap, integrating the China-in-global energy model with the Beijing Climate Center ESM version 1. The results show that bidirectional feedbacks in the natural-social system increase the demand for electricity under China’s carbon neutrality target, increasing the pressure to reduce emissions and driving up the carbon prices. Meanwhile, carbon neutrality does not eliminate all negative climate impacts and can substantially reduce the economic output of climate-vulnerable sectors in China, highlighting the need for early adaptation measures. This study emphasizes the importance of planning China’s climate neutrality pathways from a coupled natural-social system perspective.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ada8c3couplingnatural-social modelsChinacarbon neutrality |
| spellingShingle | Tianpeng Wang Yixiong Lu Fei Teng Xiliang Zhang Xiaoye Zhang Min Wei Tongwen Wu Deying Wang Jing Sun Junting Zhong Coupling natural-social models can better quantify the interactions in achieving carbon neutrality in China Environmental Research Letters coupling natural-social models China carbon neutrality |
| title | Coupling natural-social models can better quantify the interactions in achieving carbon neutrality in China |
| title_full | Coupling natural-social models can better quantify the interactions in achieving carbon neutrality in China |
| title_fullStr | Coupling natural-social models can better quantify the interactions in achieving carbon neutrality in China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Coupling natural-social models can better quantify the interactions in achieving carbon neutrality in China |
| title_short | Coupling natural-social models can better quantify the interactions in achieving carbon neutrality in China |
| title_sort | coupling natural social models can better quantify the interactions in achieving carbon neutrality in china |
| topic | coupling natural-social models China carbon neutrality |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ada8c3 |
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