Trends and variability of heat waves in Europe and the association with large-scale circulation patterns
Heat waves, defined by consecutive days of abnormally high temperatures exceeding local or regional norms, have been extensively studied during the summer season. However, their characteristics and driving forces in mid-to-late spring (April and May) and early autumn (September) remain poorly unders...
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| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-09-01
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| Series: | Weather and Climate Extremes |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094725000520 |
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| author | Loredana Boboc Mihai Dima Petru Vaideanu Monica Ionita |
| author_facet | Loredana Boboc Mihai Dima Petru Vaideanu Monica Ionita |
| author_sort | Loredana Boboc |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Heat waves, defined by consecutive days of abnormally high temperatures exceeding local or regional norms, have been extensively studied during the summer season. However, their characteristics and driving forces in mid-to-late spring (April and May) and early autumn (September) remain poorly understood. This study employed Empirical Orthogonal Functions and composite analysis to investigate the frequency, trend, and spatio-temporal variability of heat waves across Europe from 1921 to 2021. Our analysis reveals a significant upward trend in heat wave occurrences across most European regions, with a notable surge in the last three decades, beginning in the early 1990s. Furthermore, an increase in heat wave events has been observed in both mid-to-late spring and early autumn. The decade of 2011-2021 exhibited the highest number of recorded heat waves, with particularly intense periods, in terms of both frequency and spatial extent, occurring in 2003, 2007, 2012, 2015, and 2018. The most pronounced rise in heat wave frequency is evident in southern regions, including Spain, France, and Italy, extending through Central Europe and the Fennoscandian Peninsula. Southern and eastern regions display the most significant increase compared to previous periods. We identified three distinct blocking patterns potentially influencing the observed spatial and temporal variability of heat waves across spring, summer, and autumn. The first pattern corresponds to the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. The second is characterized by a blocking pattern over Fennoscandia (Scandinavian blocking). The third exhibits a high-pressure system in the west and low-pressure anomalies in the east. These findings contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the seasonal characteristics, underlying mechanisms, and driving forces of heat waves in Europe. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-8ec41c2b352346fcb1c85597d4950db9 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2212-0947 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-09-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Weather and Climate Extremes |
| spelling | doaj-art-8ec41c2b352346fcb1c85597d4950db92025-08-20T03:49:55ZengElsevierWeather and Climate Extremes2212-09472025-09-014910079410.1016/j.wace.2025.100794Trends and variability of heat waves in Europe and the association with large-scale circulation patternsLoredana Boboc0Mihai Dima1Petru Vaideanu2Monica Ionita3University of Bucharest, Faculty of Physics, Măgurele, Romania; Faculty of Forestry, “Stefan cel Mare” University of Suceava, Suceava, Romania; Corresponding author. Faculty of Physics, Bucharest, Romania.University of Bucharest, Faculty of Physics, Măgurele, Romania; Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research, Paleoclimate Dynamics Group, Bremerhaven, GermanyUniversity of Bucharest, Faculty of Physics, Măgurele, Romania; Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research, Paleoclimate Dynamics Group, Bremerhaven, Germany; Faculty of Forestry, “Stefan cel Mare” University of Suceava, Suceava, RomaniaAlfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research, Paleoclimate Dynamics Group, Bremerhaven, Germany; Faculty of Forestry, “Stefan cel Mare” University of Suceava, Suceava, RomaniaHeat waves, defined by consecutive days of abnormally high temperatures exceeding local or regional norms, have been extensively studied during the summer season. However, their characteristics and driving forces in mid-to-late spring (April and May) and early autumn (September) remain poorly understood. This study employed Empirical Orthogonal Functions and composite analysis to investigate the frequency, trend, and spatio-temporal variability of heat waves across Europe from 1921 to 2021. Our analysis reveals a significant upward trend in heat wave occurrences across most European regions, with a notable surge in the last three decades, beginning in the early 1990s. Furthermore, an increase in heat wave events has been observed in both mid-to-late spring and early autumn. The decade of 2011-2021 exhibited the highest number of recorded heat waves, with particularly intense periods, in terms of both frequency and spatial extent, occurring in 2003, 2007, 2012, 2015, and 2018. The most pronounced rise in heat wave frequency is evident in southern regions, including Spain, France, and Italy, extending through Central Europe and the Fennoscandian Peninsula. Southern and eastern regions display the most significant increase compared to previous periods. We identified three distinct blocking patterns potentially influencing the observed spatial and temporal variability of heat waves across spring, summer, and autumn. The first pattern corresponds to the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. The second is characterized by a blocking pattern over Fennoscandia (Scandinavian blocking). The third exhibits a high-pressure system in the west and low-pressure anomalies in the east. These findings contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the seasonal characteristics, underlying mechanisms, and driving forces of heat waves in Europe.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094725000520Heat waveExtreme eventAtmospheric circulationClimate changeNorth atlantic oscillation |
| spellingShingle | Loredana Boboc Mihai Dima Petru Vaideanu Monica Ionita Trends and variability of heat waves in Europe and the association with large-scale circulation patterns Weather and Climate Extremes Heat wave Extreme event Atmospheric circulation Climate change North atlantic oscillation |
| title | Trends and variability of heat waves in Europe and the association with large-scale circulation patterns |
| title_full | Trends and variability of heat waves in Europe and the association with large-scale circulation patterns |
| title_fullStr | Trends and variability of heat waves in Europe and the association with large-scale circulation patterns |
| title_full_unstemmed | Trends and variability of heat waves in Europe and the association with large-scale circulation patterns |
| title_short | Trends and variability of heat waves in Europe and the association with large-scale circulation patterns |
| title_sort | trends and variability of heat waves in europe and the association with large scale circulation patterns |
| topic | Heat wave Extreme event Atmospheric circulation Climate change North atlantic oscillation |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094725000520 |
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