Current and future habitat suitability modelling of Bambusa teres outside forest areas in Nepal under climate change scenarios
Bambusa teres Buch.-Ham. ex Munro (syn. Bambusa nutans subsp. capulata Stapleton) is a fast-growing perennial bamboo that has ecological, economic, cultural and climate change mitigation benefits. However, information on its current and future potential distribution outside forest areas across Nepal...
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| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2024-11-01
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| Series: | Advances in Bamboo Science |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2773139124000570 |
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| author | Binay Kharel Santosh Ayer Samit Kafle Sachin Timilsina Kishor Prasad Bhatta Jeetendra Gautam Amul Kumar Acharya Prakash Lamichhane Janak Airee |
| author_facet | Binay Kharel Santosh Ayer Samit Kafle Sachin Timilsina Kishor Prasad Bhatta Jeetendra Gautam Amul Kumar Acharya Prakash Lamichhane Janak Airee |
| author_sort | Binay Kharel |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Bambusa teres Buch.-Ham. ex Munro (syn. Bambusa nutans subsp. capulata Stapleton) is a fast-growing perennial bamboo that has ecological, economic, cultural and climate change mitigation benefits. However, information on its current and future potential distribution outside forest areas across Nepal and the key factors affecting its growth and distribution are little known. We used a total of 298 occurrence points obtained from the National Bamboo Resource Assessment and 23 environmental variables to project the distribution of B. teres throughout its potential range in Nepal. Maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) was utilized for this study. We assessed the performance of the model using a receiver operating characteristic curve and evaluated the relative importance of predictor variables through a Jackknife procedure. The model achieved a high level of performance with an area under the curve value of 0.928. Precipitation of the coldest quarter (bio_19), temperature seasonality (bio_4) and precipitation seasonality (bio_15) were the significant contributing variables for the distribution of B. teres. The most suitable habitat for B. teres, with a suitability index >0.6, covered 9264.6 km2, with large sections in Eastern and Central Nepal. However, under future climate change scenarios, the area of suitable habitat for the species is projected to increase across Nepal. This study serves as a baseline for assessing potential climate change impacts on B. teres and will enable the development of adaptive measures to protect and establish various bamboo populations outside forest areas in Nepal and globally. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-8e4e8dcb88684fb29bca2a35848291d0 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2773-1391 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-11-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Advances in Bamboo Science |
| spelling | doaj-art-8e4e8dcb88684fb29bca2a35848291d02025-08-20T02:48:58ZengElsevierAdvances in Bamboo Science2773-13912024-11-01910011210.1016/j.bamboo.2024.100112Current and future habitat suitability modelling of Bambusa teres outside forest areas in Nepal under climate change scenariosBinay Kharel0Santosh Ayer1Samit Kafle2Sachin Timilsina3Kishor Prasad Bhatta4Jeetendra Gautam5Amul Kumar Acharya6Prakash Lamichhane7Janak Airee8Faculty of Forestry, Agriculture and Forestry University, Hetauda 44107, NepalCollege of Natural Resource Management (CNRM), Agriculture and Forestry University, Katari 56310, Nepal; Corresponding author.Faculty of Forestry, Agriculture and Forestry University, Hetauda 44107, NepalTribhuvan University, Institute of Forestry, Pokhara Campus, Pokhara 33700, NepalResearch and Development Centre (RDC), Kathmandu 44600, NepalFaculty of Forestry, Agriculture and Forestry University, Hetauda 44107, NepalForest Research and Training Centre, Babarmahal, Kathmandu 44600, NepalMinistry of Forest and Environment, Kathmandu 44600, NepalCollege of Natural Resource Management (CNRM), Agriculture and Forestry University, Katari 56310, NepalBambusa teres Buch.-Ham. ex Munro (syn. Bambusa nutans subsp. capulata Stapleton) is a fast-growing perennial bamboo that has ecological, economic, cultural and climate change mitigation benefits. However, information on its current and future potential distribution outside forest areas across Nepal and the key factors affecting its growth and distribution are little known. We used a total of 298 occurrence points obtained from the National Bamboo Resource Assessment and 23 environmental variables to project the distribution of B. teres throughout its potential range in Nepal. Maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) was utilized for this study. We assessed the performance of the model using a receiver operating characteristic curve and evaluated the relative importance of predictor variables through a Jackknife procedure. The model achieved a high level of performance with an area under the curve value of 0.928. Precipitation of the coldest quarter (bio_19), temperature seasonality (bio_4) and precipitation seasonality (bio_15) were the significant contributing variables for the distribution of B. teres. The most suitable habitat for B. teres, with a suitability index >0.6, covered 9264.6 km2, with large sections in Eastern and Central Nepal. However, under future climate change scenarios, the area of suitable habitat for the species is projected to increase across Nepal. This study serves as a baseline for assessing potential climate change impacts on B. teres and will enable the development of adaptive measures to protect and establish various bamboo populations outside forest areas in Nepal and globally.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2773139124000570MaxEnt modelBamboo speciesHabitat suitability mappingSpecies distribution modellingNepal |
| spellingShingle | Binay Kharel Santosh Ayer Samit Kafle Sachin Timilsina Kishor Prasad Bhatta Jeetendra Gautam Amul Kumar Acharya Prakash Lamichhane Janak Airee Current and future habitat suitability modelling of Bambusa teres outside forest areas in Nepal under climate change scenarios Advances in Bamboo Science MaxEnt model Bamboo species Habitat suitability mapping Species distribution modelling Nepal |
| title | Current and future habitat suitability modelling of Bambusa teres outside forest areas in Nepal under climate change scenarios |
| title_full | Current and future habitat suitability modelling of Bambusa teres outside forest areas in Nepal under climate change scenarios |
| title_fullStr | Current and future habitat suitability modelling of Bambusa teres outside forest areas in Nepal under climate change scenarios |
| title_full_unstemmed | Current and future habitat suitability modelling of Bambusa teres outside forest areas in Nepal under climate change scenarios |
| title_short | Current and future habitat suitability modelling of Bambusa teres outside forest areas in Nepal under climate change scenarios |
| title_sort | current and future habitat suitability modelling of bambusa teres outside forest areas in nepal under climate change scenarios |
| topic | MaxEnt model Bamboo species Habitat suitability mapping Species distribution modelling Nepal |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2773139124000570 |
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