Do climate models reproduce complexity of observed sea level changes?
Abstract The ability of Atmosphere‐Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) to capture the statistical behavior of sea level (SL) fluctuations has been assessed at the local scale. To do so, we have compared scaling behavior of the SL fluctuations simulated in the historical runs of 36 CMIP5 AOGCMs...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2016-05-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068971 |
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| _version_ | 1849321886556618752 |
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| author | M. Becker M. Karpytchev M. Marcos S. Jevrejeva S. Lennartz‐Sassinek |
| author_facet | M. Becker M. Karpytchev M. Marcos S. Jevrejeva S. Lennartz‐Sassinek |
| author_sort | M. Becker |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The ability of Atmosphere‐Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) to capture the statistical behavior of sea level (SL) fluctuations has been assessed at the local scale. To do so, we have compared scaling behavior of the SL fluctuations simulated in the historical runs of 36 CMIP5 AOGCMs to that in the longest (>100 years) SL records from 23 tides gauges around the globe. The observed SL fluctuations are known to manifest a power law scaling. We have checked if the SL changes simulated in the AOGCM exhibit the same scaling properties and the long‐term correlations as observed in the tide gauge records. We find that the majority of AOGCMs overestimates the scaling of SL fluctuations, particularly in the North Atlantic. Consequently, AOGCMs, routinely used to project regional SL rise, may underestimate the part of the externally driven SL rise, in particular the anthropogenic footprint, in the projections for the 21st century. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-8e4c56d3f3ce4f6bbd1ee7dbe83f0af4 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2016-05-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-8e4c56d3f3ce4f6bbd1ee7dbe83f0af42025-08-20T03:49:37ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072016-05-0143105176518410.1002/2016GL068971Do climate models reproduce complexity of observed sea level changes?M. Becker0M. Karpytchev1M. Marcos2S. Jevrejeva3S. Lennartz‐Sassinek4LEGOS/IRD UMR 5566 Toulouse FranceLIENSs/CNRS UMR 7266, University of La Rochelle FranceIMEDEA(UIB‐CSIC) Mallorca SpainNOC Liverpool UKInstitute for Geophysics and Meteorology University of Cologne Cologne GermanyAbstract The ability of Atmosphere‐Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) to capture the statistical behavior of sea level (SL) fluctuations has been assessed at the local scale. To do so, we have compared scaling behavior of the SL fluctuations simulated in the historical runs of 36 CMIP5 AOGCMs to that in the longest (>100 years) SL records from 23 tides gauges around the globe. The observed SL fluctuations are known to manifest a power law scaling. We have checked if the SL changes simulated in the AOGCM exhibit the same scaling properties and the long‐term correlations as observed in the tide gauge records. We find that the majority of AOGCMs overestimates the scaling of SL fluctuations, particularly in the North Atlantic. Consequently, AOGCMs, routinely used to project regional SL rise, may underestimate the part of the externally driven SL rise, in particular the anthropogenic footprint, in the projections for the 21st century.https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068971CMIP5AOGCM skillsea levellong‐term correlationtide gauge |
| spellingShingle | M. Becker M. Karpytchev M. Marcos S. Jevrejeva S. Lennartz‐Sassinek Do climate models reproduce complexity of observed sea level changes? Geophysical Research Letters CMIP5 AOGCM skill sea level long‐term correlation tide gauge |
| title | Do climate models reproduce complexity of observed sea level changes? |
| title_full | Do climate models reproduce complexity of observed sea level changes? |
| title_fullStr | Do climate models reproduce complexity of observed sea level changes? |
| title_full_unstemmed | Do climate models reproduce complexity of observed sea level changes? |
| title_short | Do climate models reproduce complexity of observed sea level changes? |
| title_sort | do climate models reproduce complexity of observed sea level changes |
| topic | CMIP5 AOGCM skill sea level long‐term correlation tide gauge |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068971 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT mbecker doclimatemodelsreproducecomplexityofobservedsealevelchanges AT mkarpytchev doclimatemodelsreproducecomplexityofobservedsealevelchanges AT mmarcos doclimatemodelsreproducecomplexityofobservedsealevelchanges AT sjevrejeva doclimatemodelsreproducecomplexityofobservedsealevelchanges AT slennartzsassinek doclimatemodelsreproducecomplexityofobservedsealevelchanges |