Association between the atherogenic index of plasma and long-term risk of type 2 diabetes: a 12-year cohort study based on the Japanese population
Abstract Background Atherosclerotic dyslipidemia is associated with an increased risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D). Although previous studies have demonstrated an association between the atherogenic index of plasma (AIP) and insulin resistance, there remains a scarcity of large cohort studies investigat...
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| Language: | English |
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BMC
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Cardiovascular Diabetology |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12933-025-02605-y |
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| author | Qianxing Zhou Yamei Wu Mingkang Li |
| author_facet | Qianxing Zhou Yamei Wu Mingkang Li |
| author_sort | Qianxing Zhou |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background Atherosclerotic dyslipidemia is associated with an increased risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D). Although previous studies have demonstrated an association between the atherogenic index of plasma (AIP) and insulin resistance, there remains a scarcity of large cohort studies investigating the association between AIP and the long-term risk of T2D in the general population. This study aims to investigate the potential association between AIP and the long-term risk of T2D in individuals with normal fasting plasma glucose levels. Methods This retrospective cohort study included 15,453 participants. The AIP was calculated using the formula log [triglyceride (mmol/L)/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (mmol/L)]. Cox proportional hazard regression models were employed to assess the association between AIP and T2D risk. The nonlinear association was examined using a restricted cubic spline (RCS) model. Results During an average follow-up period of 6.05 years, 373 participants developed T2D. After adjusting for confounding factors, elevated AIP was independently associated with an increased risk of developing T2D (HR 1.763, 95%CI 1.210–2.568, P = 0.003). The RCS analysis revealed a J-shaped association between AIP and T2D risk, with a sharp increase in risk when AIP levels exceeded − 0.268. Moreover, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic analysis consistently demonstrated a moderate predictability of AIP for new-onset T2D within 1 to 12 years. Conclusion The AIP exhibits a J-shaped association with the risk of developing T2D. Therefore, maintaining AIP levels below a certain threshold (-0.268) might help prevent the onset of T2D. Graphical abstract |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-8e2be4bb7a27436c8ac7822028a5b013 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1475-2840 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Cardiovascular Diabetology |
| spelling | doaj-art-8e2be4bb7a27436c8ac7822028a5b0132025-02-02T12:07:23ZengBMCCardiovascular Diabetology1475-28402025-01-0124111310.1186/s12933-025-02605-yAssociation between the atherogenic index of plasma and long-term risk of type 2 diabetes: a 12-year cohort study based on the Japanese populationQianxing Zhou0Yamei Wu1Mingkang Li2Department of Cardiology, Zhongda Hospital, Southeast UniversityReproductive Medical Center, Hainan Women and Children’s Medical CenterDepartment of Cardiology, Zhongda Hospital, Southeast UniversityAbstract Background Atherosclerotic dyslipidemia is associated with an increased risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D). Although previous studies have demonstrated an association between the atherogenic index of plasma (AIP) and insulin resistance, there remains a scarcity of large cohort studies investigating the association between AIP and the long-term risk of T2D in the general population. This study aims to investigate the potential association between AIP and the long-term risk of T2D in individuals with normal fasting plasma glucose levels. Methods This retrospective cohort study included 15,453 participants. The AIP was calculated using the formula log [triglyceride (mmol/L)/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (mmol/L)]. Cox proportional hazard regression models were employed to assess the association between AIP and T2D risk. The nonlinear association was examined using a restricted cubic spline (RCS) model. Results During an average follow-up period of 6.05 years, 373 participants developed T2D. After adjusting for confounding factors, elevated AIP was independently associated with an increased risk of developing T2D (HR 1.763, 95%CI 1.210–2.568, P = 0.003). The RCS analysis revealed a J-shaped association between AIP and T2D risk, with a sharp increase in risk when AIP levels exceeded − 0.268. Moreover, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic analysis consistently demonstrated a moderate predictability of AIP for new-onset T2D within 1 to 12 years. Conclusion The AIP exhibits a J-shaped association with the risk of developing T2D. Therefore, maintaining AIP levels below a certain threshold (-0.268) might help prevent the onset of T2D. Graphical abstracthttps://doi.org/10.1186/s12933-025-02605-yAtherogenic index of plasmaDyslipidemiaType 2 diabetesLong-term riskPredictability |
| spellingShingle | Qianxing Zhou Yamei Wu Mingkang Li Association between the atherogenic index of plasma and long-term risk of type 2 diabetes: a 12-year cohort study based on the Japanese population Cardiovascular Diabetology Atherogenic index of plasma Dyslipidemia Type 2 diabetes Long-term risk Predictability |
| title | Association between the atherogenic index of plasma and long-term risk of type 2 diabetes: a 12-year cohort study based on the Japanese population |
| title_full | Association between the atherogenic index of plasma and long-term risk of type 2 diabetes: a 12-year cohort study based on the Japanese population |
| title_fullStr | Association between the atherogenic index of plasma and long-term risk of type 2 diabetes: a 12-year cohort study based on the Japanese population |
| title_full_unstemmed | Association between the atherogenic index of plasma and long-term risk of type 2 diabetes: a 12-year cohort study based on the Japanese population |
| title_short | Association between the atherogenic index of plasma and long-term risk of type 2 diabetes: a 12-year cohort study based on the Japanese population |
| title_sort | association between the atherogenic index of plasma and long term risk of type 2 diabetes a 12 year cohort study based on the japanese population |
| topic | Atherogenic index of plasma Dyslipidemia Type 2 diabetes Long-term risk Predictability |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12933-025-02605-y |
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