A High‐Resolution, Daily Hindcast (1990–2021) of Alaskan River Discharge and Temperature From Coupled and Optimized Physical Models

Abstract Water quality and freshwater ecosystems are affected by river discharge and temperature. Models are frequently used to estimate river temperature on large spatial and temporal scales due to limited observations of discharge and temperature. In this study, we use physically based river routi...

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Main Authors: Dylan Blaskey, Michael N. Gooseff, Yifan Cheng, Andrew J. Newman, Joshua C. Koch, Keith N. Musselman
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2024-04-01
Series:Water Resources Research
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1029/2023WR036217
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author Dylan Blaskey
Michael N. Gooseff
Yifan Cheng
Andrew J. Newman
Joshua C. Koch
Keith N. Musselman
author_facet Dylan Blaskey
Michael N. Gooseff
Yifan Cheng
Andrew J. Newman
Joshua C. Koch
Keith N. Musselman
author_sort Dylan Blaskey
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Water quality and freshwater ecosystems are affected by river discharge and temperature. Models are frequently used to estimate river temperature on large spatial and temporal scales due to limited observations of discharge and temperature. In this study, we use physically based river routing and temperature models to simulate daily discharge and river temperature for rivers in 138 basins in Alaska, including the entire Yukon River basin, from 1990–2021. The river temperature model was optimized for ice free months using a surrogate‐based model optimization method, improving model performance at uncalibrated river gages. A common statistical model relating local air and water temperature was used as a benchmark. The physically based river temperature model exhibited superior performance compared to the benchmark statistical model after optimization, suggesting river temperature model optimization could become more routine. The river temperature model demonstrated high sensitivity to air temperature and model parameterization, and lower sensitivity to discharge. Validation of the models showed a Kling‐Gupta Efficiency of 0.46 for daily river discharge and a root mean square error of 2.04°C for daily river temperature, improving on the non‐optimized physical model and the benchmark statistical model, which had root mean square errors of 3.24 and 2.97°C, respectively. The simulation shows that rivers in northern Alaska have higher maximum summer temperatures and more variability than rivers in the Central and Southern regions. Furthermore, this framework can be readily adapted for use across models and regions.
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spelling doaj-art-8decef89f090474b83c7e265657020032025-08-20T02:36:39ZengWileyWater Resources Research0043-13971944-79732024-04-01604n/an/a10.1029/2023WR036217A High‐Resolution, Daily Hindcast (1990–2021) of Alaskan River Discharge and Temperature From Coupled and Optimized Physical ModelsDylan Blaskey0Michael N. Gooseff1Yifan Cheng2Andrew J. Newman3Joshua C. Koch4Keith N. Musselman5Insitute of Arctic and Alpine Research University of Colorado Boulder CO USAInsitute of Arctic and Alpine Research University of Colorado Boulder CO USANational Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USANational Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USAU.S. Geological Survey Alaska Science Center Anchorage AK USAInsitute of Arctic and Alpine Research University of Colorado Boulder CO USAAbstract Water quality and freshwater ecosystems are affected by river discharge and temperature. Models are frequently used to estimate river temperature on large spatial and temporal scales due to limited observations of discharge and temperature. In this study, we use physically based river routing and temperature models to simulate daily discharge and river temperature for rivers in 138 basins in Alaska, including the entire Yukon River basin, from 1990–2021. The river temperature model was optimized for ice free months using a surrogate‐based model optimization method, improving model performance at uncalibrated river gages. A common statistical model relating local air and water temperature was used as a benchmark. The physically based river temperature model exhibited superior performance compared to the benchmark statistical model after optimization, suggesting river temperature model optimization could become more routine. The river temperature model demonstrated high sensitivity to air temperature and model parameterization, and lower sensitivity to discharge. Validation of the models showed a Kling‐Gupta Efficiency of 0.46 for daily river discharge and a root mean square error of 2.04°C for daily river temperature, improving on the non‐optimized physical model and the benchmark statistical model, which had root mean square errors of 3.24 and 2.97°C, respectively. The simulation shows that rivers in northern Alaska have higher maximum summer temperatures and more variability than rivers in the Central and Southern regions. Furthermore, this framework can be readily adapted for use across models and regions.https://doi.org/10.1029/2023WR036217river temperatureriver dischargeArcticAlaskahydrologic model
spellingShingle Dylan Blaskey
Michael N. Gooseff
Yifan Cheng
Andrew J. Newman
Joshua C. Koch
Keith N. Musselman
A High‐Resolution, Daily Hindcast (1990–2021) of Alaskan River Discharge and Temperature From Coupled and Optimized Physical Models
Water Resources Research
river temperature
river discharge
Arctic
Alaska
hydrologic model
title A High‐Resolution, Daily Hindcast (1990–2021) of Alaskan River Discharge and Temperature From Coupled and Optimized Physical Models
title_full A High‐Resolution, Daily Hindcast (1990–2021) of Alaskan River Discharge and Temperature From Coupled and Optimized Physical Models
title_fullStr A High‐Resolution, Daily Hindcast (1990–2021) of Alaskan River Discharge and Temperature From Coupled and Optimized Physical Models
title_full_unstemmed A High‐Resolution, Daily Hindcast (1990–2021) of Alaskan River Discharge and Temperature From Coupled and Optimized Physical Models
title_short A High‐Resolution, Daily Hindcast (1990–2021) of Alaskan River Discharge and Temperature From Coupled and Optimized Physical Models
title_sort high resolution daily hindcast 1990 2021 of alaskan river discharge and temperature from coupled and optimized physical models
topic river temperature
river discharge
Arctic
Alaska
hydrologic model
url https://doi.org/10.1029/2023WR036217
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