Understanding the efficiency and uncertainty of water supply service assessment based on the Budyko framework: A case study of the Yellow River Basin, China

Freshwater ecosystem services (ESs) analyses are increasingly employed to address water resource management challenges. However, few studies have systematically examined the efficiency and uncertainty of such assessments, limiting their applicability for decision-making. In this study, the InVEST wa...

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Main Authors: Tingjing Zhang, Quanqin Shao, Haibo Huang
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2025-04-01
Series:Ecological Indicators
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Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25003255
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author Tingjing Zhang
Quanqin Shao
Haibo Huang
author_facet Tingjing Zhang
Quanqin Shao
Haibo Huang
author_sort Tingjing Zhang
collection DOAJ
description Freshwater ecosystem services (ESs) analyses are increasingly employed to address water resource management challenges. However, few studies have systematically examined the efficiency and uncertainty of such assessments, limiting their applicability for decision-making. In this study, the InVEST water yield model was applied to assess water supply service in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) from 2000 to 2022. We evaluated the model’s sensitivity to climate variables and the parameter ω. Six sets of data/parameter input combinations were constructed to drive the model independently. Spatiotemporal trends were compared with observed data from 33 hydrological stations along the Yellow River mainstem and tributaries to assess the model performance and uncertainties. Finally, the response of water supply to climate change and vegetation dynamics was further discussed. The results showed that precipitation exhibited the highest sensitivity, and errors in precipitation inputs were the primary source of data input uncertainties. Compared to the raster-scale ω-value calculation method, the method combined with the lumped model delivered the most robust simulation results (R2, RMSE, and MAE for mainstream basins: 0.91, 50.08 mm, and 38.85 mm; for tributary basins: 0.89, 6.43 mm, and 4.04 mm, respectively). Climate change, particularly changes in precipitation, emerged as a key factor driving water supply service dynamics. These findings enhance the understanding of efficiency and uncertainty in water-related ESs assessments and offer valuable insights for applications in other regions.
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spelling doaj-art-8dadd833e6604f2da1e7f03b9d1a4f5d2025-08-20T03:18:09ZengElsevierEcological Indicators1470-160X2025-04-0117311339510.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113395Understanding the efficiency and uncertainty of water supply service assessment based on the Budyko framework: A case study of the Yellow River Basin, ChinaTingjing Zhang0Quanqin Shao1Haibo Huang2Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, ChinaKey Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; Corresponding author at: 11A, Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100101, China.Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, ChinaFreshwater ecosystem services (ESs) analyses are increasingly employed to address water resource management challenges. However, few studies have systematically examined the efficiency and uncertainty of such assessments, limiting their applicability for decision-making. In this study, the InVEST water yield model was applied to assess water supply service in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) from 2000 to 2022. We evaluated the model’s sensitivity to climate variables and the parameter ω. Six sets of data/parameter input combinations were constructed to drive the model independently. Spatiotemporal trends were compared with observed data from 33 hydrological stations along the Yellow River mainstem and tributaries to assess the model performance and uncertainties. Finally, the response of water supply to climate change and vegetation dynamics was further discussed. The results showed that precipitation exhibited the highest sensitivity, and errors in precipitation inputs were the primary source of data input uncertainties. Compared to the raster-scale ω-value calculation method, the method combined with the lumped model delivered the most robust simulation results (R2, RMSE, and MAE for mainstream basins: 0.91, 50.08 mm, and 38.85 mm; for tributary basins: 0.89, 6.43 mm, and 4.04 mm, respectively). Climate change, particularly changes in precipitation, emerged as a key factor driving water supply service dynamics. These findings enhance the understanding of efficiency and uncertainty in water-related ESs assessments and offer valuable insights for applications in other regions.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25003255Water supply serviceUncertainty analysisEfficiencyBudyko frameworkThe Yellow River Basin
spellingShingle Tingjing Zhang
Quanqin Shao
Haibo Huang
Understanding the efficiency and uncertainty of water supply service assessment based on the Budyko framework: A case study of the Yellow River Basin, China
Ecological Indicators
Water supply service
Uncertainty analysis
Efficiency
Budyko framework
The Yellow River Basin
title Understanding the efficiency and uncertainty of water supply service assessment based on the Budyko framework: A case study of the Yellow River Basin, China
title_full Understanding the efficiency and uncertainty of water supply service assessment based on the Budyko framework: A case study of the Yellow River Basin, China
title_fullStr Understanding the efficiency and uncertainty of water supply service assessment based on the Budyko framework: A case study of the Yellow River Basin, China
title_full_unstemmed Understanding the efficiency and uncertainty of water supply service assessment based on the Budyko framework: A case study of the Yellow River Basin, China
title_short Understanding the efficiency and uncertainty of water supply service assessment based on the Budyko framework: A case study of the Yellow River Basin, China
title_sort understanding the efficiency and uncertainty of water supply service assessment based on the budyko framework a case study of the yellow river basin china
topic Water supply service
Uncertainty analysis
Efficiency
Budyko framework
The Yellow River Basin
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25003255
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