Exploring the relationship between drought-flood abrupt alternation and soil erosion over Guangdong, China through a convection-permitting model
Climate change has caused a more heterogeneous distribution of extreme precipitation, leading to the deterioration of drought-flood abrupt alternation (DFAA) events and soil erosion. The security and sustainable utilization of water and soil resources are severely threatened. Previous studies have f...
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Taylor & Francis Group
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Geomatics, Natural Hazards & Risk |
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| Online Access: | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/19475705.2024.2383779 |
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| author | Xuerou Weng Jinxin Zhu Dagang Wang Huijiao Chen Shuo Wang Yamin Qing |
| author_facet | Xuerou Weng Jinxin Zhu Dagang Wang Huijiao Chen Shuo Wang Yamin Qing |
| author_sort | Xuerou Weng |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate change has caused a more heterogeneous distribution of extreme precipitation, leading to the deterioration of drought-flood abrupt alternation (DFAA) events and soil erosion. The security and sustainable utilization of water and soil resources are severely threatened. Previous studies have focused separately on these two aspects, failing to comprehensively consider their interrelationship. Furthermore, these studies often rely on climate models with convection parameterization, resulting in substantial uncertainties. We use a 4 km convective permitting model (CPM) to generate reliable outputs for extreme precipitation. By incorporating the long-cycle drought-flood abrupt transition index and the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation model, we analyze the changes in DFAA events and soil erosion, as well as their interconnectedness. The results show that the CPM outperforms coarse-resolution climate models in reproducing erosive rainfall and simulating the heterogeneous distribution of rainfall by capturing convection processes effectively. Projections indicate an escalation in the occurrence of DFAA events and soil erosion due to the more uneven distribution of precipitation. Specifically, the frequency of flood-to-drought (FTD) events within DFAA is projected to rise from 3.8 to 4.7 per decade. Soil loss is projected to increase 61 t·hm−2·a−1, with 73% of the area experiencing more severe soil erosion intensity. A positive correlation between FTD events and soil erosion is found throughout most of Guangdong. This correlation will be further amplified with an increase in the frequency of FTD events. Consequently, existing soil conservation measures are rendered inadequate, presenting substantial challenges for climate change adaptation and ecological protection in the region. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-8d77e94ebaae41fc90ddeb5d251ff213 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 1947-5705 1947-5713 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Taylor & Francis Group |
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| series | Geomatics, Natural Hazards & Risk |
| spelling | doaj-art-8d77e94ebaae41fc90ddeb5d251ff2132025-08-20T02:50:29ZengTaylor & Francis GroupGeomatics, Natural Hazards & Risk1947-57051947-57132024-12-0115110.1080/19475705.2024.2383779Exploring the relationship between drought-flood abrupt alternation and soil erosion over Guangdong, China through a convection-permitting modelXuerou Weng0Jinxin Zhu1Dagang Wang2Huijiao Chen3Shuo Wang4Yamin Qing5Carbon-Water Research Station in Karst Regions of Northern Guangdong, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, ChinaCarbon-Water Research Station in Karst Regions of Northern Guangdong, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, ChinaCarbon-Water Research Station in Karst Regions of Northern Guangdong, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, ChinaDepartment of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, ChinaDepartment of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, ChinaDepartment of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, ChinaClimate change has caused a more heterogeneous distribution of extreme precipitation, leading to the deterioration of drought-flood abrupt alternation (DFAA) events and soil erosion. The security and sustainable utilization of water and soil resources are severely threatened. Previous studies have focused separately on these two aspects, failing to comprehensively consider their interrelationship. Furthermore, these studies often rely on climate models with convection parameterization, resulting in substantial uncertainties. We use a 4 km convective permitting model (CPM) to generate reliable outputs for extreme precipitation. By incorporating the long-cycle drought-flood abrupt transition index and the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation model, we analyze the changes in DFAA events and soil erosion, as well as their interconnectedness. The results show that the CPM outperforms coarse-resolution climate models in reproducing erosive rainfall and simulating the heterogeneous distribution of rainfall by capturing convection processes effectively. Projections indicate an escalation in the occurrence of DFAA events and soil erosion due to the more uneven distribution of precipitation. Specifically, the frequency of flood-to-drought (FTD) events within DFAA is projected to rise from 3.8 to 4.7 per decade. Soil loss is projected to increase 61 t·hm−2·a−1, with 73% of the area experiencing more severe soil erosion intensity. A positive correlation between FTD events and soil erosion is found throughout most of Guangdong. This correlation will be further amplified with an increase in the frequency of FTD events. Consequently, existing soil conservation measures are rendered inadequate, presenting substantial challenges for climate change adaptation and ecological protection in the region.https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/19475705.2024.2383779Climate ChangeSoil ErosionConvection PermittingDrought-Flood Abrupt Alternation |
| spellingShingle | Xuerou Weng Jinxin Zhu Dagang Wang Huijiao Chen Shuo Wang Yamin Qing Exploring the relationship between drought-flood abrupt alternation and soil erosion over Guangdong, China through a convection-permitting model Geomatics, Natural Hazards & Risk Climate Change Soil Erosion Convection Permitting Drought-Flood Abrupt Alternation |
| title | Exploring the relationship between drought-flood abrupt alternation and soil erosion over Guangdong, China through a convection-permitting model |
| title_full | Exploring the relationship between drought-flood abrupt alternation and soil erosion over Guangdong, China through a convection-permitting model |
| title_fullStr | Exploring the relationship between drought-flood abrupt alternation and soil erosion over Guangdong, China through a convection-permitting model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Exploring the relationship between drought-flood abrupt alternation and soil erosion over Guangdong, China through a convection-permitting model |
| title_short | Exploring the relationship between drought-flood abrupt alternation and soil erosion over Guangdong, China through a convection-permitting model |
| title_sort | exploring the relationship between drought flood abrupt alternation and soil erosion over guangdong china through a convection permitting model |
| topic | Climate Change Soil Erosion Convection Permitting Drought-Flood Abrupt Alternation |
| url | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/19475705.2024.2383779 |
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