A principle-based framework to determine countries’ fair warming contributions to the Paris Agreement
Abstract Equity is a cornerstone of global climate policy, yet differing perspectives mean that international agreement on how to allocate mitigation efforts remains elusive. A rich literature informs this question, but a gap remains in approaches that appropriately consider non-CO2 emissions and th...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Nature Communications |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-56397-6 |
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| author | Mingyu Li Setu Pelz Robin Lamboll Can Wang Joeri Rogelj |
| author_facet | Mingyu Li Setu Pelz Robin Lamboll Can Wang Joeri Rogelj |
| author_sort | Mingyu Li |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Equity is a cornerstone of global climate policy, yet differing perspectives mean that international agreement on how to allocate mitigation efforts remains elusive. A rich literature informs this question, but a gap remains in approaches that appropriately consider non-CO2 emissions and their warming contributions. In this study, we address this gap and define a global warming budget applicable to all anthropogenic greenhouse gases that is allocated to countries based on principles drawn from international treaties and environmental law. We find that by 2021 a range of 84 to 90 countries, including but not limited to all major developed countries, exhausted their budget share compatible with keeping warming to 1.5 °C (with 50% likelihood) under all allocation approaches considered in this study. A similar picture emerges for limiting warming to 2 °C (with 67% likelihood). A large group of countries will hence exceed their fair shares even if their pledges under the Paris Agreement represent their deepest possible emission reductions. Considerations of fairness should therefore start exploring aspects beyond domestic emissions reductions. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-8d5ba240d02e4f65b1a55d68e3201e36 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2041-1723 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Nature Communications |
| spelling | doaj-art-8d5ba240d02e4f65b1a55d68e3201e362025-01-26T12:42:52ZengNature PortfolioNature Communications2041-17232025-01-0116111310.1038/s41467-025-56397-6A principle-based framework to determine countries’ fair warming contributions to the Paris AgreementMingyu Li0Setu Pelz1Robin Lamboll2Can Wang3Joeri Rogelj4School of Environment, Tsinghua UniversityEnergy, Climate and Environment Program, International Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisCentre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College LondonSchool of Environment, Tsinghua UniversityCentre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College LondonAbstract Equity is a cornerstone of global climate policy, yet differing perspectives mean that international agreement on how to allocate mitigation efforts remains elusive. A rich literature informs this question, but a gap remains in approaches that appropriately consider non-CO2 emissions and their warming contributions. In this study, we address this gap and define a global warming budget applicable to all anthropogenic greenhouse gases that is allocated to countries based on principles drawn from international treaties and environmental law. We find that by 2021 a range of 84 to 90 countries, including but not limited to all major developed countries, exhausted their budget share compatible with keeping warming to 1.5 °C (with 50% likelihood) under all allocation approaches considered in this study. A similar picture emerges for limiting warming to 2 °C (with 67% likelihood). A large group of countries will hence exceed their fair shares even if their pledges under the Paris Agreement represent their deepest possible emission reductions. Considerations of fairness should therefore start exploring aspects beyond domestic emissions reductions.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-56397-6 |
| spellingShingle | Mingyu Li Setu Pelz Robin Lamboll Can Wang Joeri Rogelj A principle-based framework to determine countries’ fair warming contributions to the Paris Agreement Nature Communications |
| title | A principle-based framework to determine countries’ fair warming contributions to the Paris Agreement |
| title_full | A principle-based framework to determine countries’ fair warming contributions to the Paris Agreement |
| title_fullStr | A principle-based framework to determine countries’ fair warming contributions to the Paris Agreement |
| title_full_unstemmed | A principle-based framework to determine countries’ fair warming contributions to the Paris Agreement |
| title_short | A principle-based framework to determine countries’ fair warming contributions to the Paris Agreement |
| title_sort | principle based framework to determine countries fair warming contributions to the paris agreement |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-56397-6 |
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