A prediction model for high-risk cardiovascular disease among residents aged 35 to 75 years
Objective:To establish a prediction model for high-risk cardiovascular disease (CVD) among residents aged 35 to 75 years, so as to provide the basis for improving CVD prevention and control measures. Methods:Permanent residents aged 35 to 75 years were selected from Dongcheng District, Beijing Munic...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | zho |
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Editorial Office of China Preventive Medicine Journal
2025-01-01
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| Series: | 预防医学 |
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| Online Access: | http://www.zjyfyxzz.com/CN/10.19485/j.cnki.issn2096-5087.2025.01.003 |
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| author | ZHOU Guoying，XING Lili，SU Ying，LIU Hongjie，LIU He，WANG Di，XUE Jinfeng，DAI Wei，WANG Jing，YANG Xinghua， |
| author_facet | ZHOU Guoying，XING Lili，SU Ying，LIU Hongjie，LIU He，WANG Di，XUE Jinfeng，DAI Wei，WANG Jing，YANG Xinghua， |
| author_sort | ZHOU Guoying，XING Lili，SU Ying，LIU Hongjie，LIU He，WANG Di，XUE Jinfeng，DAI Wei，WANG Jing，YANG Xinghua， |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Objective:To establish a prediction model for high-risk cardiovascular disease (CVD) among residents aged 35 to 75 years, so as to provide the basis for improving CVD prevention and control measures. Methods:Permanent residents aged 35 to 75 years were selected from Dongcheng District, Beijing Municipality using the stratified random sampling method from 2018 to 2023. Demographic information, lifestyle, waist circumference and blood biochemical indicators were collected through questionnaire surveys, physical examinations and laboratory tests. Influencing factors for high-risk CVD among residents aged 35 to 75 years were identified using a multivariable logistic regression model, and a prediction model for high-risk CVD was established. The predictive effect was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results:A total of 6 968 individuals were surveyed, including 2 821 males (40.49%) and 4 147 females (59.51%), and had a mean age of (59.92±9.33) years. There were 1 155 high-risk CVD population, with a detection rate of 16.58%. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that gender, age, smoking, central obesity, systolic blood pressure, fasting blood glucose, triglyceride and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol were influencing factors for high-risk CVD among residents aged 35 to 75 years (all P<0.05). The area under the ROC curve of the established prediction model was 0.849 (95%CI: 0.834-0.863), with a sensitivity of 0.693 and a specificity of 0.863, indicating good discrimination. Conclusion:The model constructed by eight factors including demographic characteristics, lifestyle and blood biochemical indicators has good predictive value for high-risk CVD among residents aged 35 to 75 years. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-8d41e653d84941388ec9af5fda7ad139 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2096-5087 |
| language | zho |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Editorial Office of China Preventive Medicine Journal |
| record_format | Article |
| series | 预防医学 |
| spelling | doaj-art-8d41e653d84941388ec9af5fda7ad1392025-02-07T06:11:10ZzhoEditorial Office of China Preventive Medicine Journal预防医学2096-50872025-01-01371121610.19485/j.cnki.issn2096-5087.2025.01.003A prediction model for high-risk cardiovascular disease among residents aged 35 to 75 yearsZHOU Guoying，XING Lili，SU Ying，LIU Hongjie，LIU He，WANG Di，XUE Jinfeng，DAI Wei，WANG Jing，YANG Xinghua，Objective:To establish a prediction model for high-risk cardiovascular disease (CVD) among residents aged 35 to 75 years, so as to provide the basis for improving CVD prevention and control measures. Methods:Permanent residents aged 35 to 75 years were selected from Dongcheng District, Beijing Municipality using the stratified random sampling method from 2018 to 2023. Demographic information, lifestyle, waist circumference and blood biochemical indicators were collected through questionnaire surveys, physical examinations and laboratory tests. Influencing factors for high-risk CVD among residents aged 35 to 75 years were identified using a multivariable logistic regression model, and a prediction model for high-risk CVD was established. The predictive effect was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results:A total of 6 968 individuals were surveyed, including 2 821 males (40.49%) and 4 147 females (59.51%), and had a mean age of (59.92±9.33) years. There were 1 155 high-risk CVD population, with a detection rate of 16.58%. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that gender, age, smoking, central obesity, systolic blood pressure, fasting blood glucose, triglyceride and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol were influencing factors for high-risk CVD among residents aged 35 to 75 years (all P<0.05). The area under the ROC curve of the established prediction model was 0.849 (95%CI: 0.834-0.863), with a sensitivity of 0.693 and a specificity of 0.863, indicating good discrimination. Conclusion:The model constructed by eight factors including demographic characteristics, lifestyle and blood biochemical indicators has good predictive value for high-risk CVD among residents aged 35 to 75 years.http://www.zjyfyxzz.com/CN/10.19485/j.cnki.issn2096-5087.2025.01.003cardiovascular diseasehigh risk populationreceiver operating characteristic curverisk prediction |
| spellingShingle | ZHOU Guoying，XING Lili，SU Ying，LIU Hongjie，LIU He，WANG Di，XUE Jinfeng，DAI Wei，WANG Jing，YANG Xinghua， A prediction model for high-risk cardiovascular disease among residents aged 35 to 75 years 预防医学 cardiovascular disease high risk population receiver operating characteristic curve risk prediction |
| title | A prediction model for high-risk cardiovascular disease among residents aged 35 to 75 years |
| title_full | A prediction model for high-risk cardiovascular disease among residents aged 35 to 75 years |
| title_fullStr | A prediction model for high-risk cardiovascular disease among residents aged 35 to 75 years |
| title_full_unstemmed | A prediction model for high-risk cardiovascular disease among residents aged 35 to 75 years |
| title_short | A prediction model for high-risk cardiovascular disease among residents aged 35 to 75 years |
| title_sort | prediction model for high risk cardiovascular disease among residents aged 35 to 75 years |
| topic | cardiovascular disease high risk population receiver operating characteristic curve risk prediction |
| url | http://www.zjyfyxzz.com/CN/10.19485/j.cnki.issn2096-5087.2025.01.003 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT zhouguoyingxinglilisuyingliuhongjieliuhewangdixuejinfengdaiweiwangjingyangxinghua apredictionmodelforhighriskcardiovasculardiseaseamongresidentsaged35to75years AT zhouguoyingxinglilisuyingliuhongjieliuhewangdixuejinfengdaiweiwangjingyangxinghua predictionmodelforhighriskcardiovasculardiseaseamongresidentsaged35to75years |